Dave McCormick 382,282 31.2%
Mehmet Oz 380,809 31.1%
Kathy Barnette 302,898 24.7%
Total votes for the three candidates: 1,065,989
This morning:
Mehmet Oz 411,872 31.3%
Dave McCormick 409,308 31.1%
Kathy Barnette 325,835 24.8%
Total votes for the three candidates: 1,147,015
Difference: 81,026
Last night NBC estimated 168,000 votes were remaining. Politico 3%, about 30K (my rough calculation of 3% of the total vote received.)
Currently, Politico states that 95% of the expected vote is in. NBC now estimates that 94% of the expected vote is in with no actual figures provided, a change from what they were doing last night. Essentially, both Politico and NBC now agree on the estimate of the expected vote remaining.
Can you finally admit politico was wrong and DDHQ and NBC were right?
No, these are estimates that change during the evening. IMO Politico did a better job of estimating the expected vote. There is no wrong or right, just better prognostications. Here is what NBC has on its page explaining its methodology.
NBC News isn’t showing a breakdown by type of vote in Pennsylvania. Some states and some individual counties provide results broken down by the type of ballot cast, which can include Election Day votes, or those cast early, either in person or by mail. That information isn’t widely available in Pennsylvania.
The expected vote is the total number of votes that are expected in a given race once all votes are counted. This number is an estimate and is based on several different factors, including information on the number of votes cast early as well as information provided to our vote reporters on Election Day from county election officials.The figure can change as NBC News gathers new information.
In post 211, you insisted that 99% of the vote was in.
That was wrong.
In post 253, you insisted that there were only 50K votes left at that point.
That was wrong.
Politico was wrong. You were wrong.
You were whining about the midterm turnout. It turns out that the GOP turned out more than the Democrats, and that hasn’t happened in the past (as far back as I checked.)
2006: GOP 583K Democrat 654K
2010: GOP 820k Democrat 1.05 million
2014: GOP 374k Democrat 854k
2018: GOP 737k Democrat 767k
2022: GOP 1.3 million (and rising) Democrat 1.18 million
I was right. You were wrong. Politico was wrong.
Oh, and this morning we learned that DCCC internal polling has the GOP ahead by 8% in the generic ballot.
LOL!