Posted on 04/27/2022 8:37:02 PM PDT by Cronos
I don’t think this is no problem for Poland but, the Poles are much much better prepared for it than Germany. They built an LNG terminal already. They already signed a long term supply contract with the US a year or two ago. They built extra storage capacity and have more on hand and now I see they’re preparing to be able to get gas from Norway.
They could probably use a nuclear power plant or two and maybe expanding their coal mining would be feasible as well. If others had had the foresight the Poles had, (looking at you Germany) they’d be in much better shape right now.
Not to put a fine line on it, but the Poles, the Baltic states, Romania etc. KNEW what it was like to be under Moscow’s thumb. So they kept screaming to the west, but were ignored.
Putin is destroying Russia every bit as much as he is destroying Ukraine
What is amazing is Russian timing.
If they had done this in November 2021 there would have been difficulties.
If they did this in November 2020 then the West would have capitulated immediately.
Poland has not closed coal power stations. Majority of its electric power generation comes from coal stations.
Poland says its ban on all Russian oil and gas imports is the most radical in Europe
Who banned whom...?
Poland uses coal power plants for generating electricity and heating in cities.
A natural gas pipeline from Norway to Poland will be completed in October this year.
As you can see, there was a plan put in motion few years ago to switch gas supplier in Poland.
There will be no sitting in darkness or cold next winter.
Russia knows this and this is just a propaganda move to impress uninformed people.
I would be far more impressed had Russia announced stop to selling gas to Germany. Germany is not ready for switching gas supplier. They are more susceptible for a blackmail about gas delivery. However, Russia has chosen not to disrupt sales to Germany, their biggest customer. They like the money coming from huge sales to Germany.
Poland signs 20-year deal to buy natural gas from the US
Poland has signed a long-term deal with a U.S. company for supplies of liquefied natural gas as part of an effort to reduce its dependence on Russian energy
By VANESSA GERA Associated Press
December 19, 2018, 10:28 AM
“In the years to come the US and Israel will step and fill some of this demand. Great news for Texas.”
See link below to see how Joe Biden killed the proposed natural gas pipeline from Israel to Europe. Israel has a lot of natural gas in its Eastern Mediterranean waters. This helped Russia. It makes you wonder about Biden’s motives and which side he is on.
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/18232/israel-europe-gas-pipeline
“ in the long term, they have hurt themselves by not being a supplier that anyone can trust”
That long term may only be about two years. There is a big bow wave of increase in the price of gas, as major customers are suddenly trying to buy major new supplies. So as Russian exports drop in half, it doesn’t hurt Russia as much, as long as prices have doubled. In reality though, most of Russia’s exports are on long term fixed price contracts, so the increase in spot prices likely only buffers a portion of their decreased volume.
But the replacement program that Europe is on now, envisions about two years to expand import capacity to replace Russian gas. Distribution will be a challenge that may lag in some places, and prices will be high. But in about two years, they now expect to be able to shut off the gas from Russia. They can substitute some coal and oil for Russian gas in electrical generation (and crank up some output from nuke plants), as well as possibly tightening the belt a bit through conservation efforts, to mitigate the transition off of Russian gas.
But as volumes shift, it will reach a point where the addition of new replacement production drives total Global production significantly above total demand (likely well before two years). Then either Russia production is decreased correspondingly, or spot prices start to dive from the surplus. Or both. That is when the serious screwing of Russian Government finances hits home.
We are on some varying downward slope for Russian gas revenues from Europe, which is about 75% of Russia’s current gas exports. This Coming Winter is possibly the last hurrah for Russia’s ability to inflict serious pain on Europe by throttling gas. After that, they will likely have to offer discounts for market share, and be in a position where the Europeans maintain the capacity to turn off the Russians at any time.
An awesome, historic strategic fail by Putin, killing the goose that laid the golden eggs.
Just wait until Brandon hears about THIS!
Glad to hear that about Poland.. too bad the western Euros didn’t heed Reagan’s warning in the 1980s about reliance on alRussian energy.
I will rectify that in short order and perhaps just button up my keyboard. It is not the first time.
No worries, we all sometimes do that
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