Posted on 04/13/2022 8:12:46 AM PDT by nwrep
I think people need to understand that gerry mandering can absolutely allow 25-30% of the people in the country to elect more than 50% of the representatives.
It is just a math problem.
The House is a lot harder, you have to be a bit of a politics nerd to really do it right.
But I did predict D+40 for 2018, took a lot of abuse and suggestions for meds for my psychosis around here - and I was exactly right.
The GOP backers are getting high off of polls. And if the GOP were going to run on a pure MAGA platform and contest all 435 races, then, yes, they would crush it.
But what they want to do, and probably are going to do is run 435 candidates who they believe can sell the Bush shit sandwich as a nutritious meal for America - and if they do that, I can easily see D+15.
You can't beat something with nothing.
If Americans don’t sweep the left out of power completely this November, we are truly lost as a country.
I can’t imagine this will happen, but we seem to shoot ourselves in the foot more often than not...
Just because Nate Silver doesn’t know how to interpret polls, doesn’t necessarily mean he doesn’t know about re-districting.
The general tendency is for Rs to gain from re-apportionment and Ds to gain from re-districting. So, by focusing on the latter, to the exclusion of the former, you are slanting your analysis.
Then, Silver’s metric is very informative. A district might be Plus 3 Democrat in Presidential elections, and Plus 2 Republican is Congressional elections. Congressional candidates have some leeway in presenting themselves to voters.
Finally, drawing districts that lean Democrat might be stupid in a Republican Wave year. If you get greedy, you might lose big. Remember the old saying, thin pigs get fed. Fat pigs get slaughtered. Don’t be greedy!
bite me Nate
How do we catch and prove ballot mules were used, if they leave their cell phones at home this time?
Bottom line - Silver predicts against the grain that the Dems will actually WIN the November House elections.
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And he gets paid real money for this type of prediction?
In America you have two extremes, hard core left and hard core right with the majority in the middle.
It is the majority in the middle that decide elections.
The Democrats, the party in power have not had a good two years and the current year leading up to 2022 is not going to get better for them.
They took President Trump’s booming economy, one that had us energy independent, full employment, no wars, secure southern border and destroyed it all.
Even if the Democrats and media want to blame President Trump the American voters always punish the party in power.
The Democrats are not going to keep control of the house or the senate.
I want some of what he’s smoking.
What can you expect from a party that’s being led by Joe the Clown
He predicted Obama correctly because he wanted him to win. He said Trump would lose because he wanted him to lose.
Agreed. It’s a very curious article. Redistricitng has always been part of the calculus but the flipping of seats in purple, even a few blue, districts is where the action is going to be
It really wouldn’t surprise me any if the GOP elite engineered election defeat across the country.
The GOP does not want to govern. It exists merely as kabuki opposition, the performers paid handsomely.
Silver is a hard partisan rat. His claim to fame was being the most accurate calling OBOZO’S numbers but afterwards it was revealed he was nothing but a cheat, getting insider campaign numbers.
Uptick in Covid, absentee vote mules put on notice.
After the fraud of 2020, I believe this analysis is correct. The 2000 Mules will be out stuffing boxes again, or the machines will be flipping votes.
GOP will win 60-80 House seats. The Republicans are ahead in the House generic poll and even, historically, when they’ve been down a few points, they take control of the House.
Call them what they are, Assistant Democrats.
Ohio has recently passed a state constitutional amendment which outlaws jerrymandering. In addition to losing one House seat, the districts are supposed to be redrawn so we can no longer Doo things like connecting Toledo to Cleveland by a narrow strip along Lake Erie to concentrate the Democrats in a few districts leaving the rest with Republican majorities. So instead of 12-4 we’ll likely end up 8-7 or 9-6. Four redistricting maps have been rejected by the state supreme court and the primary election will be delayed.
Something is up here. The rats are not changing course or even moderating despite tanking in the polls.
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