As a general concept, it’s useful to just sign onto the phrase — if it hasn’t been developed, it likely doesn’t exist.
This is true everywhere, not only Ukraine. No one had even heard of Qatar in 1995. Now they are the richest per capita country on earth via the big offshore gas field they share with Iran. Everyone can see that. If alleged gas reserves exist, they would be producing now.
Ukraine pre war and Covid flowed about 690 million cubic feet per year. Less now. They consume 1100 million cf/yr. That’s a deficit of 500K. Even more than oil, with its talk of billions of barrels and millions of barrels/day, gas deludes people with its talk of trillions of cubic feet. The Reserves estimates say Ukraine has 36 years in underground storage at current domestic consumption rates. Reduce that estimate by 2 and increase Ukraine consumption via some influx of EU money and you are down to single digit years (and usually reserves estimates slash by more than 2).
There are alleged gas reserves in the Crimea, but notice GAZPROM doesn’t have it flowing. That’s curious. They have had from 2014. See the mantra above.
There IS, for SURE, extensive coal in the Donbas, but that will never play with a green administration in Washington, found to be saying that the US is demanding coal to be available to Ukraine for burning and selling.
That gas field in the west near Lyiv . . . errr alleged gas field. Chevron had signed up to develop it (it’s shale, not conventional). They pulled out in 2014. No war risks in that region. A more powerful reason was asserted. Nothing there.
“There IS, for SURE, extensive coal in the Donbas, but that will never play with a green administration in Washington, found to be saying that the US is demanding coal to be available to Ukraine for burning and selling.”
Russia wants to encourage a green administration in Washington. One of the benefits Russia was hoping for in invading Ukraine was to create division among NATO members, especially between the US and Europe (particularly Germany); and a good way to do that is via energy production and sales. Russia wants to be the dominant energy producer, not only in the East, but globally. It sees its biggest rivals in that regard as the US and the Gulf sheikdoms; that is why it has cozied up to Iran, because Russia sees the best way to affect the sheikdoms’ oil influence is to align itself — for now — with their main energy rival in the region: Iran. Russia already has close ties to Syria, which is also antagonistic towards the Gulf sheikdoms. Russia also seeks to be the main non-Gulf player in Iraq, a country with whom it has had close relations for decades.
Just days before Russia launched invaded Ukraine, Putin signed a wide-ranging agreement with Azerbaijan, deepening the diplomatic and military cooperation between Russia and Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan is home to the Baku oil fields. Coincidence?
Russia’s invasion of Georgia in 2008? Caucasus oil.
Russia is also claiming the entirety of the Arctic for its resources.
Energy is Russia’s focus, and it seeks to be the dominant energy player in the world. And it sure as hell will not suffer any competitor next door (i.e., Ukraine), no matter how small.