“There IS, for SURE, extensive coal in the Donbas, but that will never play with a green administration in Washington, found to be saying that the US is demanding coal to be available to Ukraine for burning and selling.”
Russia wants to encourage a green administration in Washington. One of the benefits Russia was hoping for in invading Ukraine was to create division among NATO members, especially between the US and Europe (particularly Germany); and a good way to do that is via energy production and sales. Russia wants to be the dominant energy producer, not only in the East, but globally. It sees its biggest rivals in that regard as the US and the Gulf sheikdoms; that is why it has cozied up to Iran, because Russia sees the best way to affect the sheikdoms’ oil influence is to align itself — for now — with their main energy rival in the region: Iran. Russia already has close ties to Syria, which is also antagonistic towards the Gulf sheikdoms. Russia also seeks to be the main non-Gulf player in Iraq, a country with whom it has had close relations for decades.
Just days before Russia launched invaded Ukraine, Putin signed a wide-ranging agreement with Azerbaijan, deepening the diplomatic and military cooperation between Russia and Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan is home to the Baku oil fields. Coincidence?
Russia’s invasion of Georgia in 2008? Caucasus oil.
Russia is also claiming the entirety of the Arctic for its resources.
Energy is Russia’s focus, and it seeks to be the dominant energy player in the world. And it sure as hell will not suffer any competitor next door (i.e., Ukraine), no matter how small.
Very good.
Have a look at a map of the Caspian Sea.
Azeri oil is that basin. Iran made some major discoveries on the south shore and Kazakhstan famously has Cashagan field underwater near its shoreline. That oil all travels north to the Russian shoreline, and the Volga river.
Barges and the CPC pipeline carry oil north for distribution. It’s a source of considerable US rage because Iran ships its oil north on those barges to the Volga. Blends with other oil and they get paid, around sanctions.
If you then travel north on the Volga (maybe different map) you reach the bottleneck at Volgograd (which was called Stalingrad until the Soviets deStalinized).
About 3 million barrels/day travel that route. Now move your map westward and you will discover the east border of the Donbas is less than 100 miles from Volgograd.
There was never any way NATO could be allowed that close.
So, you are dead on correct that it is an energy focus (and Russia is, indeed, going to win), but Ukraine really doesn’t have any. All those fields have been known about for decades. When they were in the Russian orbit, GAZPROM didn’t try to develop. Those fields are hype. There is a crapload of hype in the world of oil and gas. Wildcatters want their “discovery” bought for absurd price (when there’s nothing there).
Because there’s nearly nothing there.