So it’s essentially NATO except in name. What a huge fold by Russia.
How reliable is this source, though?
No.
That was Russia’s stated goal from day one no Ukraine NATO membership. It has been a point since 1994. That is what the war in 2014 was about and we expressly promised them no Ukraine NATO membership but outright lied because we were also supposed to stay out of the place but actually even prided ourselves with all the weapons we were bringing in, special forces training Ukrainians... Then last October Biden gave the green light for exactly that, Ukraine admission to NATO.
Russia is concerned that the US and NATO forces are in Ukraine.
There are major roads that lead into Russia. Numerous rail lines that are the same gauge. Ukraine has numerous airfields which could support big strategic bombers or heavy lift. Ukraine is connected in the West to Poland and Romania with easy logistics. With a lot of space and forest it’s easy to hide things, and with a solid infrastructure they can sustain a big foreign force indefinitely. Ukraine would have a significant impact on Russia’s nuclear deterrant capabilities both because of a first strike but also boost phase missile defense. 6 minutes time of flight to Moscow with a high speed missile. It puts Moscow in an unacceptable security predicament.
Ukraine already was a special economic zone for the EU. That was never the issue.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_and_Comprehensive_Free_Trade_Area
The truth is the other way around.
This is a war we instigated by making promises to the Russians we broke. It’s a war where we made promises to the Ukraine we don’t want to really pay the ante for by escalating the war today (only smart thing we did). It is a war Ukrainians will pay the real price for (economic disaster, displaced people, deaths) and the outcome will be 100% what the Russians have wanted all along: no Ukraine NATO membership.
But we will define it as a victory. We always do!