Correct.
Both sides are pumping out massive propaganda, but this has gone badly for Russia. They can probably still possess the ground, but at great cost and cannot handle a long term occupation.
You know this based on what exactly? The Main Stream media who lies about everything?
If everything is going asnplanned by Putin, then it was a stupid plan. Ukraine has a population of 44 million and its government has not been replaced by a puppet ruler and become a client state. If Russia has already won militarily, Russian troops would not be dying, boats and vehicles not be blown up, and the enemy would have surrendered in droves.
More like Vietnam, Afghanistan, French Indochina, Libya and less like Crimea, Panama, Georgia, post ww2 Hungary, Poland, Czechoslovakia, imho.