Putin was going into the Ukraine no matter who was in the Oval Office.
Without Biden’s war on US oil production the price of oil alone would have prevented a Russian invasion.
When you shut off a major portion of the world’s oil supply, jacking up the price and giving Putin lots of ready cash while simultaneously using Ukraine as a proxy thorn in his side you create the conditions where he almost has to invade.
If Putin waited, he faces the possibility of a Ukraine in NATO coupled with cheap oil that take all options off the table for him other than being a client state of China or Europe’s whipping boy.
To top it off, Biden is neither feared nor trusted, so any US response is not a consideration with him in office.
Obama and Biden administrations presented Russia with the threat of a hostile, western aligned Ukraine on their front porch while simultaneously being so catastrophically weak on foreign policy Russia could be absolutely certain they would never actually support or defend Ukraine military.
Trump would not have allowed the Ukraine to join NATO, ergo Russia would have had no reason to invade the Ukraine. So you analysis is incorrect. No NATO, no invasion.