Posted on 03/15/2022 5:54:33 AM PDT by TigerLikesRoosterNew
War could be over by May, says Ukrainian presidential adviser
March 15, 2022
March 15 (Reuters) - The war in Ukraine is likely to be over by early May when Russia runs out of resources to attack its neighbour, Oleksiy Arestovich, an adviser to the Ukrainian president's chief of staff, said late on Monday.
Talks between Kyiv and Moscow - in which Arestovich is not personally involved - have so far produced very few results other than several humanitarian corridors out of besieged Ukrainian cities.
In a video published by several Ukrainian media, Arestovich said the exact timing would depend on how much resources the Kremlin was willing to commit to the campaign.
"I think that no later than in May, early May, we should have a peace agreement, maybe much earlier, we will see, I am talking about the latest possible dates," Arestovich said.
(Excerpt) Read more at reuters.com ...
You make good points.
Along this line of thinking, who is going to clean up this mess? Will Congress spring for more billions to rebuild Ukraine?
At the very best, Ukraine will need years just to restore transportation and power.
My guess, Two weeks tops. Level Kiev, and war over. Its all fun to say you will fight to the death—but how many will in a western nation? We are not Japanese. If Russians get desperate—they will use Vacuum Bombs on Kiev. Level everything. No need for Nukes—fifteen or twenty Vacuum Bombs should do the trick. Remember what Sherman did in his March to the Sea?—he broke the CSA’s will to fight. Start using incendiary bombs on cities (like we did to Japan). War is ugly, brutal and terrible. WE have not seen this since Serbian War under Bill Clinton.
Any particular day in May?
This is a derivative of reinforcements arrive for the besieged.
Once you besieged there are only 2 options.
Surrender (or complete destruction) of the besieged, or besieged last long enough for reinforcements to arrive to break the siege.
There are no other options here.
At this point there are no reinforcements coming. NATO is not going to risk a shooting war with Russia.
Ukraine can resist, they can make it as costly as possible for Russia... they can engage in asymmetrical tactics, but once you are surrounded, you are surrounded... you are in a war of attrition, and the besieged, without external help cannot win.
While I admire the Ukrainians resolve here, and there is no doubt Russia is the aggressor here, without outside involvement, Ukraine cannot defeat Russia.
The propaganda machines from both sides are spinning full time, but Russia completely outmatched Ukraine militarily. It’s been clear, for whatever reason, that Russia did not want to just flatten Ukraine... but if they choose to, that’s what all of Ukraines cities will be... rubble.
If or when Russia decides to simply remove its self imposed restraints, cities where 100’s of thousands live will be turned into rubble in hours to days, and that’s with conventional arms. Russia doesn’t have to go nuclear, tactical or otherwise to do this.
Squadrons of TU bombers can level any city in Ukraine at will.
The Russian’s has about 135 TU heavy bombers in their fleet, to put this in perspective, the ENTIRE Ukrainian Air Force has a TOTAL of less than 300 vehicles, fighters, bombers, transports, trainers. And no, shoulder fired missiles can’t reach the heights they fly at. They are great against attack helicopters, and ground armor, but they don’t reach where the heavy bombers fly.
Unlike the flappy lipped idiots on TV, I won’t remotely pretend to understand Putin’s tactics. However, I will call absolute bullcrap on the nonsense propaganda that the Russian Military has lost a war because it didn’t get total victory in a matter of days.... The US alone imported something like 8,000 tons of Russian Manufactured ammunition last year.. it’s beyond comical to hear these claims if we just last 6 more weeks Russia will be out of ammo.
I understand you have to rally your troops and civilians to your cause, keep them motivated and fighting, but it is idiotic to claim if Russia doesn’t win in 6 more weeks, they can no longer fight, it’s nonsense... and its an idiotic press that reports these claims without any sort of challenge.
Well, Russia I assume will be doing the clean up once they take possession of the country, and honestly their knowledge of this is likely why they haven’t just flattened Kiev etc, is because they know if they do they will have to rebuild it afterwards.
Should Russia be defeated by the Ukrainian’s then I would assume international organizations would be involved in the rebuilding, and no doubt a lot of that money directly or indirectly would come form the US.
Ukrainian neutrality needs to be coupled with Belarusian neutrality. Ukrainian security concerns are just as valid as those of Russia.
“I’m hearing Russia has achieved most of its objectives.”
You mean the US bio weapon labs ?
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