“Day 12 of the War”
According to Joe Biden, in just those 12 days Putin has more than doubled the price of gasoline and given us inflation. Everything was absolutely perfect until then
I don’t agree with much of his analysis.
The Ukrainian militias are denigrated, and Russian combat effectiveness clearly overstated.
They obviously tried political de-capitation and failed, now they are using standard Soviet tactics and equipment.
The reality is that the spring is coming, and with it the mud. That means only road transport of heavy vehicles. That means a lot of NLAWS and Javelins, in the hands of a lot of people, are very likely to fundamentally test 80 year old Soviet tactics and 40 year old equipment run by conscripts.
While Russia has nearly 100% of ground forces committed, with very little recent movement, Ukrainians are mobilizing at an enormous rate. The Russians are calling on the Chinese for help.
Clearly plan A was rapid troops with large numbers of people to quell the public. Plan B is a war of attrition and minimal bloodshed. Plan C is what this person lays out “shelling of cities and mass bloodshed”. People who believe the war is going well for Russia, need to start asking about “What is plan D and E?”
Russia better start thinking about its supply lines, on the roads, in the mud, with 500,000+ people with NLAWS roaming around and no clear air superiority. The smart play now is diplomacy, but politically speaking, Russia has already lost. The only question will be how much is it going to cost them in the future. Ukraine survives, it will forever hate Russia. You can bank on that.
The author seems to be a well informed military historian, with some Russian sympathy. I for one, would be very interested in reading any future analysis from him. Thanks for posting.
He made an interesting point, that I think many others have missed - 70% of Russia’s offensive combat forces were amassed and have been committed to this operation. They don’t really have that much more combat power, that could be brought to bear.
When you see total numbers of Russian military personnel, or the total number of tanks, it seems like they have much more depth to call upon. But when you you look at the number of fully operational units (staffed, equipped and trained) to conduct offensive operations, they have already given their best effort.
As they might try to starve out cities, they will also be bleeding their offensive capability. Time can work against them. The missile supply to the Ukrainians seems to have really changed the equation.
He estimated 4-6 weeks of operations, before a negotiated cessation. That still seems quite feasible, but likely with much less Russian territorial gains than he anticipated. If Russia is going to press for the kind of territorial gains he projected, it now seems that it will require more time, and the likely the use of more destructive tactics in the cities, and the use of more poorly trained conscripts and mercenaries. Even then, multiple constraints could come into play, that might prevent it altogether.
I think they will need to cut their losses before they can consolidate all the territory that he envisioned.
excellent and realistic analysis
thanks for posting
Excellent article!
Thanks!
Thank you - good having another persepctive - well written and though long it’s worth the read.