I don’t agree with much of his analysis.
The Ukrainian militias are denigrated, and Russian combat effectiveness clearly overstated.
They obviously tried political de-capitation and failed, now they are using standard Soviet tactics and equipment.
The reality is that the spring is coming, and with it the mud. That means only road transport of heavy vehicles. That means a lot of NLAWS and Javelins, in the hands of a lot of people, are very likely to fundamentally test 80 year old Soviet tactics and 40 year old equipment run by conscripts.
While Russia has nearly 100% of ground forces committed, with very little recent movement, Ukrainians are mobilizing at an enormous rate. The Russians are calling on the Chinese for help.
Clearly plan A was rapid troops with large numbers of people to quell the public. Plan B is a war of attrition and minimal bloodshed. Plan C is what this person lays out “shelling of cities and mass bloodshed”. People who believe the war is going well for Russia, need to start asking about “What is plan D and E?”
Russia better start thinking about its supply lines, on the roads, in the mud, with 500,000+ people with NLAWS roaming around and no clear air superiority. The smart play now is diplomacy, but politically speaking, Russia has already lost. The only question will be how much is it going to cost them in the future. Ukraine survives, it will forever hate Russia. You can bank on that.
Not only will Ukraine hate Russia forever, so will the world. Russia can forget about foreign investors or businesses coming back until Putin is arrested, tried, and executed for war crimes along with his oligarchy lackeys. Yesterday, Putin nationalized Aeroflot by converting the leased commercial aircraft to domestic routes. This essentially made them inaccessible for repossessing and basically the ward of the state. I’m not into modern aircraft technology, but is there a kill switch that can be flipped via satellite to make them inoperable? If not, that was a nice $10 billion gift Ireland gave to Russia.
How long will it take for business to recoup their losses by Russia’s actions on all the other goofball mistakes by making deals with this former KGB agent. The same goes for China. Who the hell thinks teaming with a communist nation is a good idea?
Sleep well.
Now that is the best summary I have seen.