Posted on 03/14/2022 6:08:52 AM PDT by Fury
Many are calling for a “no-fly zone” over Ukraine. Few appear to be grappling with the details required to make it an actual policy proposal. If you’re proposing an NFZ, here are some of the questions you need to answer first:
1. What are the historic cases of NFZ success that you seek to emulate?
2. How will your proposal work differently from the failed versions (Iraq, Bosnia, Libya), which didn’t alleviate most of the civilian harm, nor end the fighting, and ultimately led to participation in the ground war itself?
3. What organization will operate your NFZ? If the UN, how will you get past the certain Russian and Chinese veto? If NATO—whose current unity is a clear Russian target—how to handle the alliance division that it would spark, and likely non-unanimity in approving and then implementing it?
4. Does your proposal call for shooting down aircraft, but not suppressing the ground-based Russian radar, surface-to-air missiles, electronic warfare, and command-and-control units and systems that would endanger the aviators who are enforcing it? If you do propose to attack these Russian targets, what do you expect to happen next?
5. What are the zone’s rules of engagement and geographic area? (Note: Simply adding a creative adjective like non-kinetic or limited does not answer this.)
6. How will the NFZ handle Russian aircraft that enter the zone? Shoot first to prevent civilian harm? Or wait for the bombs or missiles to drop, and then respond after the fact?
7. How will the NFZ handle the likely edge cases and deliberate provocations, such as our jets being lit up with targeting radar, making them potentially dead in seconds if they don’t fire first?
8. Most of the Russian aircraft that are striking Ukrainian targets launch their weapons from inside Russian or Belarusan airspace. Will you shoot down those too, or let them operate freely, as long as they fire from just across the border? A similar question applies if your plan includes suppression of Russian air defenses, which can strike at aircraft across the border?
9. The vast, vast, vast majority of Russian military activities that cause civilian harm are not air strikes but missiles, artillery, and especially MLRS rockets. Will your NFZ fly over all that activity with no action? How will you answer the inevitable criticisms about watching civilians die from overhead? If you do attack the overall Russian ground force, what do you expect to happen next?
10. In all past NFZ cases, only one side had airpower. But the Ukrainians still have an operative air force. Notably, its drones are striking Russian forces to valuable effect in the very same areas of the proposed NFZ. As well, Ukrainian civilians are flying hundreds of their own drones to provide reconnaissance to the military, spotting for Russian troops and targets. Will your zone also ban these official and unofficial Ukrainian forces? If so, will you shoot them down if the Ukrainians fly them to defend their cities? If not, will you run escort missions when Russians target them?
I want to aid Ukraine too, but to do so we need policy options that are both implementable and of actual military and political utility. These include rushing resupplies of ammunition, equipment, and all the other supplies in their logistics system that are already running low; more antitank weapons and SAMs, especially of longer-range types that Ukrainian forces are already trained to use; donating easily transferable and deployable counter-UAS systems as Russia increases its use of drones for ISR and strikes; and holding NATO exercises on Russia’s other borders to tie down its forces outside of Ukraine and thus divert potential reinforcements to the invasion.
What doesn’t help embattled Ukraine are bumper-sticker proposals and op-eds that may sound tough but simply wave “jazz hands” over all the actual elements needed to make them real.
Remember the no fly zone over Libya? Didn’t work out so well for Libyans.
11. How will you enforce it? The only NATO air bases in the area are in Poland, more than 1,000 miles from the combat zones of eastern Ukraine.
Russia isn’t even flying into Ukraine airspace.
They are launching 200 sorties a day, but firing from their own airspace.
Not our circus
Not our monkeys
We don’t need high wire acts either.
Not
Our
Circus
No but the launch of a missile into Gahdafis home had great results
#1 should have read (for Americans):
Would you support a no-fly zone imposed over Mexico by China/Russia under similar circumstances?
“8. Most of the Russian aircraft that are striking Ukrainian targets launch their weapons from inside Russian or Belarusan airspace. Will you shoot down those too, or let them operate freely, as long as they fire from just across the border? A similar question applies if your plan includes suppression of Russian air defenses, which can strike at aircraft across the border?”
This. Are we willing to launch attacks inside Russia or Belarus? If not, what is the point?
Our enforcement of NFZs in the past have been against defeated or much inferior forces. I just can’t envision how a NFZ in Ukraine could possibly be implemented without devastating consequences.
Any interfering planes will just get shot down .
So Don’t try it Biden — you provoked your damned war already- don’t make it go nuclear as the bombing won’t be confined to Europe
Russia isn’t even flying into Ukraine airspace.
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Not strictly true, once the VKF ran out of smart bombs, they resorted to dumb iron which means they have to enter Ukraine airspace.
Any interfering planes will just get shot down .
—
That answers none of the questions posed. Shot down by whom, how and what about the Russian AAAD, will we attack Russia directly to suppress them?
“So Don’t try it Biden — you provoked your damned war already-”
“Just a minor incursion.”
Contrary to your claim, NATO no-fly zone in Bosnia was very successful in stopping Serbs complete the ethnic cleansing of non-Serb population.
Serbs controlled the vast amount of weapons from Yugoslavian federal army. The arms embargo imposed on entire territory of former Yugoslavia was helping them; other two sides (Bosnian muslims and Croats) were having difficulties in obtaining proper weapons to defend themselves. Subsequent no-fly zone affected Serb military, the only side in the conflict that used air force.
You simply put up a sign saying,”NO FLY ZONE”
Problem solved.
>>> once the VKF ran out of smart bombs
VKF? Russia ran out of smart bombs?
VKF = the Russian Aerospace Forces (Russian: Воздушно-космические силы, tr. Vozdushno-kosmicheskiye sily) or VKS (Russian: ВКС) Air Force plus Space command.
The reports were they ran pout of the kits, I guess, that alter dumb iron to smart iron - looks to be true, because all the unexplored ordinance pictured so far is iron. Kits are expensive.
>>> looks to be true, because all the unexplored ordinance pictured so far is iron. Kits are expensive.
Well, I think i got my intel from an MSM clip anyway... you probably right.
Seen videos of Ukraine soldiers saying stuff like “We are really lucky these guys are morons... total goofs”
They don’t understand why they are not getting pounded.
The Russians will certainly shoot them down, without question imho. Interestingly the ukranians might also.
What Biden might do? He’s unpredictable other than “ his “ policies almost all serve to weaken America, our defenses
, our economy, etc
Would he try to get us into an active war with Russia?
I don’t know. But every step of his way thus far has taken him closer
Would he try to get us into an active war with Russia?
—
I don’t know, maybe because ever since he assumed the Office, he’s done everything in his power to destroy the USA (including providing Putin with the oil revenue to go to war in the first place)?
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