Things are not going to plan fir Putin. However, the Russian army isn’t on the verge of defeat.
The longer the war takes, the more Putin will look to take any win.
My belief is that the war will end in the next few weeks. Putin gets the black sea coast plus donbas. He doesn’t get a government he wants in Kyiv.
Ukrainia becomes a frozen conflict, they don’t join the EU or NATO.
Poland continues to have 1 million refugees fir another few years.
You forgot to detail what happens to the economic sanctions on Russia.