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Ukraine War: Russian Retreat? Unlikely. Ep 2
Task and Purpose YouTube channel ^ | Feb 27, 2022 | Chris Capelluto

Posted on 03/06/2022 9:41:50 AM PST by Widget Jr

Russian Military ability is called into question. Can the Ukraine armed forces hold out long enoug to repel the Russian invasion?

Day 4 of the Russian invasion and Kyiv has yet to fall. Major Ukrainian cities are being encircled.

Using a live update open source intelligence tool we can track the Russian military in real time.

https://liveuamap.com is the website used for open source intel.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Foreign Affairs; Government; News/Current Events; Russia
KEYWORDS: invasion; putinsbuttboys; putinworshippers; russia; russianaggression; ukraine; zot; zottherussiantrolls
Chris Capelluto is a former mechanized infantryman who served in Iraq. He is currently posting videos on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. His perspective is based on his experience as a soldier, and is worth a listen.

This is the second video in the series, posted fourth days after the war started. Given the rapidly changing situation, the view Russia was supposed to win in a few days and would lose if they failed was clearly false.

My reaction:

Even though the Russian advance is described as slow, their rate of advance for the first few days was about what is expected for their logistics. "Slow" by our western maybe "the plan" by Russian standards. The Russians know their logistic limits and have their own methods of waging war. They do not wage war the same way as the U.S., NATO or westernized nations.

Judging their performance by western expectations risk grossly misunderstanding and underestimating Russian military goals and objectives. Given how long the U.S. and European countries have studied the Russian military, in my view there is a "fog of war" in the public analysis (not in the situation rooms) that should not be so "foggy".

Another factor here, is the Ukraine was under Russian control for decades. Their military is based on the Russia military. In invading Ukraine, Russia is fighitng itself more than it is fighting NATO, except for facing lots of Javelin missiles. This is looking like a major factor no one expected.

I will post the third and currently last in the series tomorrow.

1 posted on 03/06/2022 9:41:50 AM PST by Widget Jr
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To: Widget Jr

In this day of smart phones everywhere, why am I not seeing any battles between the two sides being shared? Is it already over - and we’re just being lied to?


2 posted on 03/06/2022 9:46:35 AM PST by cuban leaf (My prediction: Harris is Spiro Agnew. We'll soon see who becomes Gerald Ford, and our next prez.)
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To: Widget Jr

dear russia, wel ome to your vietnam!

as long as vlad putin lives, this will vo on.


3 posted on 03/06/2022 10:06:53 AM PST by Terry L Smith
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To: cuban leaf

Pictures of the 250,000 Ukrainian troops? Their 800 tanks? Do they or did they exist?


4 posted on 03/06/2022 10:09:24 AM PST by samadams2000 (Get your houses in order.)
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To: Widget Jr

Right. And Putin is all in on this invasion. There’s absolutely no way forward for Russia now unless they can fight through to a parallel currency.

Its terrible but for American interests now we have to support Ukraine in a real politik sense. Ukrainians have a right to their independence.

This whole situation should have been avoided if not for greedy politicians using Ukraine for personal gain for so long.


5 posted on 03/06/2022 10:16:02 AM PST by Bayard
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To: Widget Jr
It's not just that Russian logistics is slow: it's simply incapable of supporting an advance past a certain distance.

The Russians started with their traditional 3 echelon attacks and made progress. But the lack of supply, breakdown of equipment and continued resistance seem to have slowed the Russian advance to a crawl.

When you see the maps of Russian "occupied areas" those are very misleading. With only 200K troops, in those areas only certain towns and roads are controlled. If the Russians want to ensure control, at each town they have to leave men and equipment. This further weakens the advance, and the perimeter is porous enough for Ukrainian forces to slip in.

Meanwhile the Ukrainians have abandoned traditional Soviet tactics and are fighting very cleverly by not trying to hold big perimeters around towns and cities but letting the Russians come in and then whacking them. They also wait for armor to pass and then hit the support columns.

The Russians expected knife like thrusts to seize big cities easily and toss out the current government. Instead they've attacked an amoeba with teeth.

6 posted on 03/06/2022 10:22:16 AM PST by pierrem15 ("Massacrez-les, car le seigneur connait les siens" )
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To: pierrem15

That ties into what I’m thinking.


7 posted on 03/06/2022 11:05:16 AM PST by Widget Jr
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To: cuban leaf

In this day of smart phones everywhere, why am I not seeing any battles between the two sides being shared? Is it already over - and we’re just being lied to?

Or are you just not looking?

There are hundreds of videos on twitter - but no one will be sticking their heads up and filming during an actual battle, unless from a great distance as in miles away.


8 posted on 03/06/2022 11:31:24 AM PST by PIF (They came for me and mine ... now its your turn)
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To: samadams2000

Pictures of the 250,000 Ukrainian troops? Their 800 tanks? Do they or did they exist?

Yes and they are all obligingly lined up for your inspection - the only caveat is you have to look in person, so you can sign up at the nearest Ukraine embassy - be sure to bring your military service and combat tour papers - Visas wavered

https://fightforua.org/


9 posted on 03/06/2022 11:35:34 AM PST by PIF (They came for me and mine ... now its your turn)
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To: PIF

That’s good.


10 posted on 03/06/2022 11:40:23 AM PST by samadams2000 (Get your houses in order.)
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To: pierrem15

The most important front of the war is receiving almost zero Mockingbird mass media coverage.

The Deep State knows what it is—but they have no interest in sharing.

Hint: It is where the largest segment of the Ukraine military has been the entire time—while the Russians slowly and methodically encircled them.

I will let you figure out where that might be—would force you to go outside the “comfort zone” and seek alternative sources of information.


11 posted on 03/06/2022 11:41:43 AM PST by cgbg (A kleptocracy--if they can keep it. Think of it as the Cantillon Effect in action.)
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To: cgbg
The bulk of the Ukrainian military is holding the line in the east and the Russians may be trying to cut them off by advancing southward from the north and northward from the south. Ukrainian resistance at Mariupol and Kharkov seems to be impeding these maneuvers. The Russians also seem to have attempted to seize Kiev and that isn't going to well either. The latest I've read is the may try advancing from the south and north west of Dnieper. The plus for the Russians is few large towns. The minus is lack of roads means moving over open, soggy ground over a large distance.

The Russians may slowly take some objectives. But they have far too small a force to do what they are trying to do. Every time they advance they have to leave troops to hold the rear. It's like trying to attack an amoeba with teeth.

12 posted on 03/06/2022 12:09:43 PM PST by pierrem15 ("Massacrez-les, car le seigneur connait les siens" )
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To: PIF
Good point.

When facing the Russian army, not getting shot into worm food is a higher priority than getting "the picture" for the evening news shown in the west. The videos on twitter are by Ukrainians fighting for their country. This is not Iraq or Afghanistan where the U.S. dominated. We are getting the story from the weaker side here. That affects what we see and how we perceive the conflict. Everything the Ukrainians put out is suspect, it is still clear this is not going the way Russia wants.

13 posted on 03/06/2022 12:19:41 PM PST by Widget Jr
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To: Widget Jr

Everything the Ukrainians put out is suspect,


Really? Everything? You are well trained by US media.


14 posted on 03/06/2022 12:24:04 PM PST by PIF (They came for me and mine ... now its your turn)
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