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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 9, 2024

The Russian military is reportedly abusing Serbian nationals whom Russian officials have recruited to serve in Russian formations in Ukraine. A Serbian volunteer reportedly serving in the separate “Wolf” unit of the Russian 119th Airborne (VDV) Regiment (106th VDV Division) claimed that Russian commanders order Serbian fighters to conduct assaults under threat of violence and withhold provisions and ammunition from them.[74] ISW previously observed reports that the Russian military had recruited up to several hundred Serbian nationals to the separate “Wolf” unit and that Cuban and Nepali nationals are serving in VDV formations, including the 106th VDV Division.[75] Elements of the 106th VDV Division have been operating near Bakhmut since at least April 2023 and have likely suffered heavy personnel losses.[76] The Russian military may have assigned foreign volunteers to the 106th VDV Division to offset these losses.

full report: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-9-2024

5,781 posted on 01/10/2024 2:14:36 AM PST by AdmSmith (GCTGATATGTCTATGATTACTCAT)
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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 10, 2024

The Kremlin's effort to use the mythos of the Great Patriotic War (Second World War) to prepare the Russian public for a long war in Ukraine is at odds with Russia's current level of mobilization and Russian President Vladimir Putin's rhetorical attempts to reassure Russians that the war will not have lasting domestic impacts. St. Petersburg outlet Fontanka published an interview with Russian State Duma Defense Committee Chairman Andrei Kartapolov on January 9 wherein Kartapolov stated that even in the “victorious years of 1944 to 1945” the Soviet forces faced difficulties, prompting the interviewer to ask Kartapolov if Russia was now figuratively in 1944-1945 (i.e. nearing the end of the war in Ukraine).[1] Kartapolov attempted to expand the erroneous analogy between the Soviets’ fight against Nazi Germany and Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine by claiming that Russia is currently figuratively somewhere in December 1943 and moving into 1944.[2] The Soviet military launched a series of successful offensive operations following its defensive victory at the battle of Kursk in July 1943 and by December 1943 had reached the banks of the Dnipro River and Kyiv in Ukraine. Kartapolov explained his logic by claiming that Ukrainian forces failed in the summer 2023 counteroffensive in Zaporizhia Oblast in a way similar to Nazi Germany's losses in battles in 1943.[3] Kartapolov’s analogy makes little sense, particularly given the fact that the Russian forces have not gained notable ground in recent months as the Soviet forces did in the months before December 1943.[4] The interviewer asked Kartapolov if his analogy suggests that Russia's war in Ukraine will end in 2024, forcing Kartapolov to admit that Russia's war in Ukraine and the Second World War cannot be literally compared.[5] Kartapolov nevertheless continued to use allusions to the Second World War to claim that the Russian military would continue the war in Ukraine until it installed a “banner over the Reichstag” (i.e. complete victory in Ukraine that achieves all of Putin's maximalist objectives).[6]

full report: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-10-2024

5,784 posted on 01/11/2024 2:27:31 AM PST by AdmSmith (GCTGATATGTCTATGATTACTCAT)
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