Yes, this would seem to be checkmate, but as you pointed out, there is sooo much propaganda swirling about that one has to simply wait to see what actually is, or has, happened.
Why would an Army deployed throughout the country suddenly feel the urge to toss their weapons in the nearest river and throw their hands up at reports of the capital being surrounded? It’s not as if the deployed Divisions Brigades and regiments cannot operate independently- let’s wait and see before we decide the outcome.
All of a sudden, the speculative reports are taken at face value?