Posted on 02/25/2022 10:09:08 AM PST by Kaslin
The Russian offensive against Ukraine unleashed by Russian President Vladimir Putin is now two days old. There are two big things to consider as the conflict grinds on: strategy and morale.
The first is the survival of Ukraine’s young president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Zelenskyy and his democratically-elected government are the focus of Putin’s war. The German military theorist Carl von Clausewitz wrote, “The talent of the strategist is to identify the decisive point and to concentrate everything on it, removing forces from secondary fronts and ignoring lesser objectives.” Zelenskyy is that decisive point.
For an opposing force, the contrary is often true. In Ukraine’s case, it is — that is, the survival of Ukraine’s government and the prevention of the installation of a quisling, a pro-Putin government in Kiev.
But as von Clausewitz noted, “…no strategy ever survives the first engagement with the enemy.” Ukraine is fighting back. Whether it will be enough is an open question, though every day Zelenskyy’s government survives increases their odds of success.
The second factor, morale, is crucial. In that aspect, the Ukrainian people have seen some inspirational moments aided by rapid dissemination via cell phones.
The images of a helmeted Zelenskyy in the field with his soldiers invoke the memory of other wartime leaders, such as Winston Churchill during Britain’s darkest hour.
These images, and stories arising from the flames of Putin’s brazen attack, may serve as new historic foundation mythology for a very old nation.
America has the Boston Massacre with Crispus Attucks, the first martyr of the revolution, Molly Pitcher manning the cannon at Monmouth, and George Washington crossing the Delaware on Christmas Eve to attack German mercenaries on Christmas morning.
Ukraine now has Snake Island, with its 13 defenders telling a Russian warship to “go f— yourself” in reply to a demand to surrender. The Russians killed all 13 border guards.
The Ghost of Kiev as well — perhaps an urban legend, perhaps not — a Ukrainian MiG-29 pilot credited with downing six Russian aircraft — and racking up more than four million views on one video posted to Twitter on Friday.
And, of course, Zelenskyy himself, who, unlike the last feckless Afghan President, Ashraf Ghani, remains at his post — though a successful relocation to Lviv in Ukraine’s west to carry on the fight would be preferable to death or capture.
And then there’s the Biden administration and its response to Russia’s offensive against Ukraine.
During his press conference Thursday, President Joe Biden responded to a question by claiming, “No one expects the sanctions to prevent anything from happening…” Days earlier, Vice President Kamala Harris said sanctions would deter Putin.
As to the sanctions announced by Biden, he said to give them 30 days to work. But the Battle of Ukraine will be won or lost by then.
Instructively, the Russian Ruble immediately gained 8 percent on Biden’s announcement of weak half measures. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 2.5 percent in relief, and oil plunged by more than $4 a barrel on the word that Biden and our NATO allies would still welcome copious supplies of Russian oil and natural gas and pay for it in hard dollars.
War entails sacrifice. So far, the sacrifices are being shouldered by Russian conscripts and the Ukrainian people. The West? Not so much.
If Ukraine survives as an independent nation, Putin will fall, and Biden’s sanctions will have had nothing to do with his demise. The credit will be due to Ukrainian courage and Putin’s hubris.
There is, unfortunately, no chance of Ukraine surviving this onslaught.
There may be resistance, and ultimately a resurgence, but Putin has the power to occupy the country.
and the Global Warming UN sitting on their Butts
In spite of is more like it
Brandon is Putin’s most valuable asset.
I’ll believe there are consequences for Putin when his yacht is on fire. Until then, it’s all blah blah blah sanction.
We also thought that, back in 1979, when China invaded Vietnam. The Vietnamese fought back hard and drove China out.
This whole thing could have been prevented. Khrushchev and Kennedy averted war, why couldn’t Putin and Biden (or whoever would negotiate in his place)?
Biden is offering to send the UAF maternity flight suits...
The Russians will become ruthless in war if needed. They are not like the woke US military, NATO, or the west in general. They play to win and it will get ugly.
Odds can never be overcome by attitudes of defeatism, hopelessness, and surrendering to statistical certainty before the fire-fight ensues.
If our generals thought like you in 1776. Today we would be all singing... “God Save The Queen” or perhaps living under the Swastika saluting with the words “Sieg Heil” if Britain was already written off by attitudes like yours that defeat was inevitable because Hitler had the air power and superior numbers to occupy the country.
“Putin has the power to occupy the country.”
Beyond that, Putin has the resources to install a government that meets his requirements.
A full occupation will not be necessary if he achieves that.
Imho the primary purpose of the invasion is to force Ukrainian regime change.
That is why the sanctions stuff is totally irrelevant. Putin will declare “peace” when he gets the government he wants in power.
Putin does not that power. He’s sending conscripts and mercs to Ukraine. That’s playing a very weak hand. He’ll be suing for peace shortly. More fake elections, etc.
Imho Putin would never have invaded unless he believed he could overthrow the existing government.
I don’t know the details on what basis he came to that conclusion, but I would very surprised if it turned out to be an error.
Bad comparison. Ukrainians are fighting for their land. Putin is sending football hooligans and mercs to invade. I’ll take the home team here.
If Putin was so brilliant he wouldn’t be resorting to violence now. He’s a thug who knows nothing else. He’s met his Waterloo. Ukraine is the size of Texas and has 40 million people. That is not a nation conquered by conscripts and Soviet era equipment.
This guy is a moron. More than likely in a few weeks Putin will head home and Zelensky will still be President but without the deep state problems. And since Putin is knocking out those bio weapons labs Bill Gates is not going to get his next big pandemic.
George Washington crossed the Delaware the night of Dec. 25/26, 1776, and fought the Hessians on the morning of December 26.
“We also thought that, back in 1979, when China invaded Vietnam. The Vietnamese fought back hard and drove China out.”
There is a school of thought that believes the Chinese used the war to winnow old school colonels and generals from the PLA to make room for younger tigers.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.