Posted on 02/17/2022 7:16:48 AM PST by Az Joe
A shockingly large price bubble appears to have formed in the real estate market.
Although it’s impossible to predict economic crashes with certainty, a key economic indicator suggests the U.S. housing market is on the verge of an unprecedented crash, one that could end up being the biggest in America’s history.
The entire article posted here: https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/4038848/posts
I don’t buy this.
There is currently a huge imbalance between supply and demand for real estate.
That is, there are way more people looking to buy houses than there are houses.
This comes as a result of 10 years of underbuilding.
Blackrock will keep buying.
Sold two props recently-
Had for a few years- good returns.
I’m gonna wait til the bounce comes back.
Not gonna try and catch the bottom.
Did the same thing last time.
Like Trading Places when they started buying back.
Smile, pick and choose, no rush.
They’ll be plenty more.
Bring On The Bust.
yawn
Letting the air out of one bubble will deflate all the bubbles.
And it’s something they have to do eventually, right?
You can only have a crash if the inventory is overtripping demand.
I don’t see that happening with real-estate at the moment. Ask an agent how inventory is.
In our area there are very few houses on the market these days, as they say, not much inventory. Of course, a lot of refugees from New York are moving in. So there is upward pressure on prices. Add to that the huge over-printing of dollars over the last couple of years, and something has to give.
Houses have essentially doubled in price over the last five years. Of course, gasoline has doubled in price over the last year, too.
Exactly.
The one main bubble I’m expecting to tumble is the FIAT dollar, with the FED that it rode into town on.
Like dominoes, all others deflate, like Real Estate, follow.
Good news: the United States ‘For’ America will never pay a plug nickle back of principal nor any more interest on the $30T+ in debt.
I’ll let you know if I decide to sell my house. Then you’ll know exactly when the bust is going to occur and I can lose my shirt (again).
The author needs to check his data. The Federal Funds rate is the rate the Fed charges member banks for short term loans. In most cases, “going to the window” for these funds is to cover intra-day shortages on reserve requirements. The rate peaked under Carter (over 20%!) and, except for a short dip in the early 1990’s, didn’t get under 4% until 2000. See: https://www.macrotrends.net/2015/fed-funds-rate-historical-chart
Meanwhile... the rental prices are what drive the actual intrinsic value of the houses.
Present value of future cash flows.
This is yet another case of some idiot wanting to be seen as an expert by declaring something before it happens.
It’s like this stupid person I knew that always declared she had a dream that the space shuttle was going to blow up every time it was to launch. So, when Challenger blew, she proclaimed that she “knew it!”
Certainly there will be some sort of crash to pay for all the economic irresponsibility going on now.
What I’ve noticed, as a concerned observer is that there are LOTS of people predicting a crash, in all manner of ways. Eventually one will hit it right, and that will be the person who becomes crazy wealthy.
“Ask an agent how inventory is.”
Exactly. The selling of my house closes next week. There are no properties for sale within 7 miles of my house. Everything, all 10 or so, properties that have been up for sale in the past 90 days are under contract. Nothing new for sale in the past 30 days. The real estate supply/demand imbalance won’t get resolved for at least another year. I suspect we’re in for an economic growth for the next 5 years and a housing demand to continue along with it.
You meant the Discount rate.
People running out of government pandemic money is not inherently a real estate bubble.
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