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CCP Is ‘Terminally Ill’: Author of Book "China Coup" Says China’s Domestic Troubles Could Trigger Leadership Coup
Epoch Times ^ | 02/10/2022 | Danella Pérez Schmieloz and David Zhang

Posted on 02/10/2022 5:37:41 PM PST by SeekAndFind

A group of Chinese officials might stage an internal coup against Chinese leader Xi Jinping, and transition China to a democratic political system, according to Roger Garside, author of “China Coup.”

“The body politic of China is terminally ill. Only a transplant can save the body politic, and the only other system on offer is competitive democracy,” Garside, a former diplomat, told Epoch TV’s “China Insider” program on Jan. 31.

Garside, who served twice at the British Embassy in Beijing, argues that high-level officials in the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), including Premier Li Keqiang, believe that Xi is taking China in a “very risky and dangerous” direction, jeopardizing their wealth and power, as well as the future of the CCP. He contends that this is the reason why they are plotting against the Chinese leader.

The author went on to explain some indications of the CCP’s vulnerability that could enable such a coup.

Private Sector

China’s private sector has become powerful and autonomous, according to Garside. This has been putting pressure on the CCP, causing anxiety among the country’s leadership.

“Alibaba raised $24 billion on the New York Stock Exchange; 248 other companies have raised billions of dollars out of the control of the Communist Party, beyond their capital exchange control, beyond their political control,” he noted.

“Those companies can use that money to turn round and buy politicians in China, and rivals to Xi Jinping,” he added.

Since 1978, the CCP implemented a series of more liberal economic policies as part of its “reform and opening up” campaign in order to “survive in power,” Garside said. But the regime had no intention to allow political freedom to develop in tandem.

Garside explained that in 2008 the CCP realized China’s private sector would become too powerful if the country continued its transition to a free-market economy, and thus set its sights on controlling the market.

When Xi came to power in 2013, he decided to “double down on the CCP’s totalitarian rule”, instead of restarting the liberalization of the economy, according to the author.

“But here we are 10 years later, he and his closest allies clearly are afraid of the power and autonomy which the private sector has achieved,” he said.

Internal Weakness

China is “outwardly strong, but inwardly weak,” said Garside.

“Ever since 2011, the regime … has been spending more of its budget on internal security than it has on the military. It fears its internal enemies,” said he.

Garside further explained that while it looks like Xi holds all the power, the CCP structure has numerous “power centers” in regional and local governments.

“Xi Jinping does not hold all the power. He has very astutely and skillfully centralized authority into his own hands,” said Garside.

What the CCP did to Hong Kong is an indicator of the CCP’s weakness, according to Garside.

“Tiny Hong Kong 7.4 million people, but very attached to the rule of law and wanting democracy. And they’re the mighty Beijing, Communist Party, controlling supposedly 1.4 billion people,” said he.

Hong Kong, a former British colony, has experienced waves of citywide protests since the region was handed over to the Chinese regime in 1997, as the CCP has incrementally rolled back the city’s freedoms and autonomy—something it had guaranteed would remain in place for 50 years after the handover.

In mid-2020, following large-scale democracy protests in the Chinese-ruled territory a year earlier, Beijing imposed the draconian national security law, which significantly stifles freedom of speech and freedom of association in the city. The law gives the Chinese regime sweeping powers to target individuals for any acts deemed by Beijing as secession, subversion, terrorism, or collusion with foreign forces. Offenders, if convicted, could be imprisoned for life.

Scores of activists have been arrested and jailed, or have fled Hong Kong since then.

“Why [did they crush Hong Kong]? Because they’re afraid of the idea there of democracy and the rule of law,” he said. “They’re afraid that their own people, if they see it working in Hong Kong, if they see the Communist Party permitting, democracy, elections, freedom of speech, and the rule of law in Hong Kong will want it.”

Declining Property Sector

Another factor that could empower officials to launch a coup is the declining property sector, said Garside.

The regime has been “relying on land sales to finance themselves for years, and now the price of land has plummeted,” he said, noting that around 25 percent of China’s gross domestic product comes from the property sector.

But now this sector is “unraveling,” Garside said, citing the growing crisis faced by Evergrande, the world’s most indebted property firm with more than $300 billion in liabilities.

The company, along with several other Chinese real estate developers, failed to meet debt interest payments in 2021. The developers were then being forced to sell their assets at lower prices. But due to a lack of buyers, Evergrande’s shares and the property market prices in general decreased significantly.

Transition?

The former diplomat argued that such a coup would probably transition China to democracy because officials are aware that the communist system is not functioning anymore, and that constitutional democracy is the better alternative.

“I think they would want to sustain the Communist Party as a political entity. But I think they’d want to change the system, because the present system isn’t working,” he said.

He went on to cite a Cai Xia, a former professor of political ideology at the Central Party School.

“She is on the record as saying that 60 to 70 percent of those people that she taught the senior official of the Communist Party recognize that constitutional democracy actually works better than the system they’ve got,” he said.

In regards to the question of whether a coup could take place before this fall’s all-important CCP meeting, the National Party Congress, Garside said that this could only happen if a series of internal and external pressures coincide to create an opportune moment. But the odds, he said, are low, at perhaps around 20 percent.

Xi is attempting to secure an unprecedented third consecutive term as CCP chairman at the Party Congress this year. According to Garside, it’s important for opposing officials to act before then.

“If they don’t, some of them will be retired, new people [will] be [put] in their places who may be more subject to see Xi’s influence.”



TOPICS: Crime/Corruption; Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: ccp; china; coup; fakenews; redchina
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1 posted on 02/10/2022 5:37:41 PM PST by SeekAndFind
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Nice fantasy, but no. They’re all commies there.


2 posted on 02/10/2022 5:39:49 PM PST by Olog-hai ("No Republican, no matter how liberal, is going to woo a Democratic vote." -- Ronald Reagan, 1960)
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To: SeekAndFind

I certainly hope so. But... what will come after?


3 posted on 02/10/2022 5:40:12 PM PST by Rummyfan (In any war between the civilized man and the savage, support the civilized man. Suppo)
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To: SeekAndFind

Prayers up.


4 posted on 02/10/2022 5:40:21 PM PST by lizma2
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To: SeekAndFind

Wow! Sick? it sure is making WIDE CONQUERING ROADS of dominance all over the Globe! Sick? I think not!


5 posted on 02/10/2022 5:41:39 PM PST by RoseofTexas
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To: SeekAndFind

We can only hope so.


6 posted on 02/10/2022 5:44:02 PM PST by Jonty30 (I love giving directions, because it is like me tell people where to go and how to get there.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Very interesting. I’ve been thinking the way to avoid a seemingly inevitable conflict with nuclear armed China, is for the US to undermine the Chinese leadership on human rights grounds, and encourage the the Chinese people to seek liberty from their communist masters.
This is the constant fear of the CCP because they know they do not represent most of their population.

Of course this would have to be done by a DJT, I can’t imagine any democrat pulling it off.


7 posted on 02/10/2022 5:44:05 PM PST by Williams (Stop Tolerating The Intolerant)
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To: SeekAndFind
This is much bigger than the Xi or the CCP since China has become the proving grounds/incubator from which the Neo-Feudalists export authoritarianism to the West.

The inevitable collapse of the CCP will take the globalist elites with it, but this will take a substantial toll of the global economy.

8 posted on 02/10/2022 5:45:33 PM PST by SecondAmendment (This just proves my latest theory ... LEFTISTS RUIN EVERYTHING !!!)
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To: RoseofTexas
Wow! Sick?

My thoughts, also. China is all over the map with projects, that give them more control over other countries. That's a kind of "sick" that the U.S.A. used to enjoy. We're the sick country, under the Democrats rule.

9 posted on 02/10/2022 5:46:42 PM PST by roadcat
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To: SeekAndFind

Just like Russia wants a czar and follows Putin, China wants an Emperor. The CCP may well collapse, but it will not be replaced by something like Parliament or Congress.


10 posted on 02/10/2022 5:48:28 PM PST by chajin ("There is no other name under heaven given among people by which we must be saved." Acts 4:12)
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To: SeekAndFind

Of course there are power struggles within the CCP.

But replacing Xi with another ChiCom is not progress.


11 posted on 02/10/2022 5:58:23 PM PST by ifinnegan (Democrats kill babies and harvest their organs to sell)
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To: SeekAndFind

“A group of Chinese officials might stage an internal coup against Chinese leader Xi Jinping, and transition China to a democratic political system”

Fantasy.

All power comes through the barrel of a gun.


12 posted on 02/10/2022 6:13:47 PM PST by Mariner (War criminal #18)
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To: SeekAndFind

Stage a coup. Trade one dictator for another. Just like the countries in Africa s s Central/South America.

I wonder if the folks that have raised billions out of control of the CCP are happy with this book. Given that it just might have put targets in their back.

CCP leadership ain’t going down without a fight. Be a shame if all these guys started dying in car wrecks, home invasions, end up in Ft Marcy Park. The CCP folks are pretty tight with the Clintons.


13 posted on 02/10/2022 6:50:25 PM PST by qaz123
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To: Rummyfan
"But... what will come after?

Meet the new boss, same as the old boss, but more ruthless in consolidating power.

14 posted on 02/10/2022 6:55:19 PM PST by buckalfa (America is the only nation where a person can be both fat and poor at the same time.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Saw a photo of the food trays they are giving athletes in isolation. If that is what they are giving them, the Chinese people must be starving.


15 posted on 02/10/2022 6:59:17 PM PST by mware (RETIRED)
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To: SeekAndFind
A group of Chinese officials might stage an internal coup against Chinese leader Xi Jinping, and transition China to a democratic political system, according to Roger Garside, author of “China Coup.”

Yes, just like the way those Soviet officials took care of Stalin…oh, wait. /s

The current Emperor’s #1 fear is being deposed in just such a coup, and he has been working hard for a decade to weaken his rivals. The man who could pull it off would only be someone harder and more dangerous than Xi - not some mild-mannered, democracy-minded Guangzhou businessmen who are unhappy with their recent cash flows.

16 posted on 02/10/2022 7:16:14 PM PST by Mr. Jeeves ([CTRL]-[GALT]-[DELETE])
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To: SeekAndFind
saying that 60 to 70 percent of those people that she taught the senior official of the Communist Party recognize that constitutional democracy actually works better than the system they’ve got,” he said.

Big problem. Most of the human race is stupid and sinful. I'm sure it's worse in Communist China because such regimes bring out the worst in the people, not the best.

So, attributed to Winston Churchill: "The strongest argument against democracy is a five minute conversation with any voter." That's why the US does NOT have a democracy.

17 posted on 02/10/2022 7:17:15 PM PST by frank ballenger (You have summoned up a thundercloud. You're gonna hear from me. Anthem by Leonard Cohen)
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To: SeekAndFind

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DTDsn23OdCM

On the death of the west and China


18 posted on 02/10/2022 7:17:52 PM PST by Chickensoup ( Leftists totalitarian fascists are eradicating conservatives)
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To: Williams

Theater thing the Chinese want to be is American.


19 posted on 02/10/2022 7:19:03 PM PST by Chickensoup ( Leftists totalitarian fascists are eradicating conservatives)
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To: SeekAndFind

We can always dream vaguely of an overthrow of the Commies. Much more likely is a millions dead bloodbath followed by tighter control.

A Christian woman (strongly anti Communist) born in China and studying here said to me of the Tiananmen Square guy who did the face off against the tank: “How could anyone have been so stupid as to think someone in power cared what he thought and would spare his life?” She heard the many stories (denied) that thousands of similar dissidents were killed and disposed of without a trace along with that guy.


20 posted on 02/10/2022 7:22:27 PM PST by frank ballenger (You have summoned up a thundercloud. You're gonna hear from me. Anthem by Leonard Cohen)
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