I increasingly see this as a bipolar world with Europe and China as the two great powers. And I think Europe is largely trying to ally with Russia to form a serious power bloc. Germany wants good relations with Russia and does not care about Ukraine. I think this is where the EU is largely going.
China is a threat to everyone and Europe wants to be in a position to face that threat. Alienating Russia does not help Europe meet its goal.
The US, on the other hand, is supremely unreliable. We are not a good ally. We are not a fearsome enemy. Biden likes Ukraine because he can squeeze money out of Ukraine. The current administration doesn’t really care about Russia and is afraid of China. There is a global struggle going on and we are pretty determined to sit on the sidelines.
I think Putin understands which way the wind is blowing and he will work with Europe to settle affairs to a mutually beneficial conclusion. We will get nothing because we deserve nothing.
Russia chose the third option decades ago: they are close allies with Russia, China, North Korea, Iran, etc. All military games and preparation, along side China, have all been aimed--openly so--at the United States.
Europe has nothing to offer Russia except their death or surrender. The vast majority of Europe cannot survive a peer to peer conflict. Germany's army has been intentionally destroyed. The French are the exception, as are the Poles, but they are both still years away from being what we need them to be to face Russia and China.
As things stand, Russia and China have an opportunity during the Biden administration to permanently change the balance of power in the world.