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UCSF Doctor Predicts Bay Area Could Be Approaching 'Regional Endemic' in Next 4 Weeks
ABC7 ^ | Monday, January 31 | Luz Pena

Posted on 02/02/2022 11:13:43 AM PST by nickcarraway

According to the latest data, COVID cases in San Francisco are down by 50 percent while hospitalizations are down 10 percent.

UCSF Dr. Bob Wachter San Francisco Bay Area could be in a regional endemic state in the next 4 weeks as omicron peak subsides.

SAN FRANCISCO (KGO) -- COVID cases are going down significantly in San Francisco giving emergency medicine doctors hope as we approach the potential downfall of omicron in the city.

According to the latest data, COVID cases in San Francisco are down by 50 percent while hospitalizations are down 10 percent. Recent Stories from ABC 7 News

Dr. Bob Wachter is the chair of UCSF's Department of Medicine. He is citing omicron has turned the corner in San Francisco.

Bob Wachter @Bob_Wachter SF has turned Omicron corner. Hospitalizations ⬇10%, cases⬇50%. Both these %'s confounded by challenge of discharging Covid+ patients; test availability. Better metric (less confounded): asymptomatic test pos. rate @UCSFHospitals: way⬇. 10d ago, it was ~16%. Last 3d:~4%.(1/2)

"In a room of 20 people in San Francisco, today is probably somewhere about a 30 to 50 percent chance that one of the people has COVID. That doesn't mean you are going to get it. If you are wearing a mask your risk is very low. If you are wearing an N95 your risk is essentially 0," said Dr. Wachter.

To get the perspective from inside the hospital we spoke to the chiefs of the busiest emergency departments in San Francisco. At UCSF Parnassus campus Dr. Raven is finally seeing a drop.

"About three weeks ago, I think we were in the 140 (range) and today we are in the 90 (range). So that is a significant drop in hospitalizations but it is of course more than what we would like to see," said Dr. Raven.

At Zuckerberg San Francisco General Hospital Dr. Colwell is still reporting a peak in cases. He's been admitting 10 to 15 COVID patients per day for the last two weeks.

"We are in the same boat that we have been for the last 10 days to two weeks. Where we were in the mid 50 (range) and above in terms of patients in the hospital and significantly more that we see in the emergency department," said Dr. Colwell.

Both emergency departments are noticing a trend of those who are coming in with COVID now.

"They were vaccinated with the initial vaccination schedule but did not get boosted," said Dr. Colwell.

Luz Pena: "Are you feeling hopeful?" Dr. Colwell: "I'm feeling hopeful. We haven't seen the impact in the hospital yet but I do believe there is light at the end of the tunnel."

RELATED: Debunking the idea viruses evolve to become less deadly over time

Dr. Wachter believes we'll be closer to an endemic in the next four weeks

"I'm pretty comfortable prediction that will be where we go. That puts us at least in a regional endemic state meaning that is not dominating people's lives. People can begin letting down their guard and doing some things they haven't done before," said Dr. Wachter.

Historically hospitalization lag behind case counts by a week or two. That's why emergency medicine doctors believe we are not out of the woods yet.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Extended News; News/Current Events; US: California
KEYWORDS: bayarea; california; covid19; endemic; sanfrancisco


1 posted on 02/02/2022 11:13:43 AM PST by nickcarraway
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To: nickcarraway

Of COURSE they’re predicting that, because they pushed the political boundaries well past where they shoulda. Now they have to cover their backsides.


2 posted on 02/02/2022 11:14:59 AM PST by Kevmo (I’m immune from Covid since I don’t watch TV.🤗)
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To: nickcarraway

One would think SF would be immune to everything what with feces on every corner.


3 posted on 02/02/2022 11:20:56 AM PST by bgill (Which came first, the vax or the virus?)
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To: nickcarraway

Are there still hundreds (thousands) of “homeless wandering the streets in the Bay Area?

Perhaps medical researchers can look into why those with the poorest living conditions, poor hygiene, and poor diet seems to be immune to this virus.

Or does the city go out and recruit more “homeless” from else where to keep the numbers up? /s


4 posted on 02/02/2022 11:35:39 AM PST by CIB-173RDABN (I am not an expert in anything, and my opinion is just that, an opinion. I may be wrong.)
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To: nickcarraway

July, 2021: “You won’t get COVID if you have these shots.”

President for Life Joe Biden.


5 posted on 02/02/2022 11:38:50 AM PST by SaxxonWoods ("If you see no reason for giving thanks, the fault lies in yourself." - Minquass)
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To: nickcarraway

Dr. Wachter believes we’ll be closer to an endemic in the next four weeks


Endemic? That word is so right wing. For those that don’t know, and I might be wrong, that means that we just have to live with it.

Well here’s what it says when I google it:

Endemic: (of a disease or condition) regularly found among particular people or in a certain area

What a damn genius this Doctor is.

So, it’s all good because it will now be “regularly found among people in a certain area”

Boy. It must not take much to graduate medical school these days.


6 posted on 02/02/2022 11:53:01 AM PST by saleman
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To: nickcarraway
I only gave this a click to find what UCSF stood for.   the I glommed that it was probably Univ. of Cali. at SF.

Then blah, blah, blah after that.   Who gives a .....

7 posted on 02/02/2022 12:03:15 PM PST by higgmeister ( In the Shadow of The Big Chicken)
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**


8 posted on 02/02/2022 12:16:14 PM PST by PMAS (Vote with your wallets, there are 80 million of us - No China made, No Amazon)
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To: nickcarraway

Cases down well over 50% in Colorado, hospitalizations down 25%, deaths have random walked while going nowhere since before Omicron wave hit.


9 posted on 02/02/2022 12:25:56 PM PST by SaxxonWoods ("If you see no reason for giving thanks, the fault lies in yourself." - Minquass)
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To: nickcarraway

“RELATED: Debunking the idea viruses evolve to become less deadly over time”

Associated Bureau of Communists making sure to get their shiv in under the third rib.

NO news could EVER POSSIBLY be good news, yaknow.


10 posted on 02/02/2022 2:15:55 PM PST by HKMk23 (The right of freedom of religion shall not be derogated even if the life of the nation is at stake.)
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