SCOTUS heard pretty much this same issue as recently as 2016. It was 4-3 to uphold this kind of "diversity affirmative action" - only seven votes because Scalia had just died, and Kagan recused.
The Court has changed significantly since then, and there wouldn't be any reason for them to take this case unless they wanted to revisit the 2016 decision. My guess is either 5-4 or 6-3 (Roberts being the swing) to strike it down. The leftie legal pundits already are seeing the writing on the wall.
Roberts has been steadfastly opposed to using race in admissions. He voted against it every time it has been before him.
From your keyboard....
I hope that’s right, but the flimsier justices could claim “settled law” as an out, and still be welcomed in the DC Cocktail Circuit.
That they took the case is a good sign. Harvard and UNC won, and they and the DOJ did NOT want this in front of SCOTUS, who seem willing to at least consider overturning Fisher.
Personally, I hope it’s 5-4 with Roberts against us, allowing Thomas to write a solid, constitutionally literate ruling that permanently kills racial quotas. If Roberts writes the opinion/ruling, it will be weak and narrow.
Still, not counting my chickens before they hatch.
I think the Dems would secretly want it struck down, to motivate the Left to try any and every means to put a Dem majority in power that would change the law in favor of Affirmative action.
Excellent observation.