Posted on 01/22/2022 11:10:18 AM PST by lightman
Look, we usually torch The New York Times for a variety of reasons, but David Leonhardt has not been one to peddle panic porn about the virus, especially when it comes to Omicron. He aptly noted that this variant is no different than any other pathogen we face yearly with regards to risk. Hospitalizations aren’t as high, and the cases are mild. Those trends continue, with the article clearly stating that Omicron is “in retreat” (via NYT) [emphasis mine]:
Since early last week, new cases in Connecticut, Maryland, New Jersey and New York have fallen by more than 30 percent. They’re down by more than 10 percent in Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Massachusetts and Pennsylvania. In California, cases may have peaked.
[…]
The following data comes from Kinsa, a San Francisco company that tracks 2.5 million internet-connected thermometers across the country. It uses that data to estimate the percentage of Americans who have a fever every day. The declines over the past week have been sharp, which is a sign of Omicron’s retreat
[…]
Many hospitals are still coping with a crushing number of patients, because Covid hospitalization trends often trail case trends by about a week. But even the hospital data shows glimmers of good news: The number of people hospitalized with Covid has begun declining over the past few days in places where Omicron arrived…
[…]
Some of the clearest research on Covid’s risks comes from a team of British researchers led by Dr. Julia Hippisley-Cox of the University of Oxford. The team has created an online calculator that allows you to enter a person’s age, vaccination status, height and weight, as well as major Covid risk factors. (It’s based on an analysis of British patients, but its conclusions are relevant elsewhere.)
A typical 65-year-old American woman — to take one example — is five foot three inches tall and weighs 166 pounds. If she had been vaccinated and did not have a major Covid risk factor, like an organ transplant, her chance of dying after contracting Covid would be 1 in 872, according to the calculator. For a typical 65-year-old man, the risk would be 1 in 434.
Among 75-year-olds, the risk would be 1 in 264 for a typical woman and 1 in 133 for a typical man.
Those are meaningful risks. But they are not larger than many other risks older people face. In the 2019-20 flu season, about 1 out of every 138 Americans 65 and older who had flu symptoms died from them, according to the C.D.C.
And Omicron probably presents less risk than the British calculator suggests, because it uses data through the first half of 2021, when the dominant version of Covid was more severe than Omicron appears to be. One sign of Omicron’s relative mildness: Among vaccinated people in Utah (a state that publishes detailed data), the percentage of cases leading to hospitalization has been only about half as high in recent weeks as it was last summer.
[…]
Omicron appears to be in retreat, even if the official national data doesn’t yet reflect that reality. Omicron also appears to be mild in a vast majority of cases, especially for the vaccinated. This combination means that the U.S. may be only a few weeks away from the most encouraging Covid situation since early last summer, before the Delta variant emerged.
If that happens — and there is no guarantee it will, as Katherine Wu of The Atlantic explains — it will be time to ask how society can move back toward normalcy and reduce the harsh toll that pandemic isolation has inflicted, particularly on children and disproportionately on low-income children.
The piece did deal with the grim statistic which is that we’re seeing around 2,000 deaths a day and overwhelmed hospitals. Look, no doubt some hospitals are seeing spikes in COVID patients though the system is not on the verge of collapse which is what is always peddled by the panic porn makers every time there’s a new variant. The risk assessment with Omicron is what’s ley here along with the metrics that this virus is on the downturn. It’s time to start thinking about the future with COVID. It’s here to stay. It’s endemic and the risks are not a whole lot different than the flu. Will this be the last freakout? Probably not—the Left is addicted to the hysterics over this virus.
David Leonhardt @DLeonhardt · Jan 19, 2022 Replying to @DLeonhardt
And while hospitalization trends typically trail case trends by about a week, hospitalizations are already flattening or falling in some places where Omicron first arrived.
David Leonhardt @DLeonhardt
The U.S. seems to be following a similar Omicron pattern as South Africa, Britain and several other countries: A rapid, enormous surge for about a month, followed by a rapid decline — first in cases, then hospitalizations and finally deaths.
“The following data comes from Kinsa, a San Francisco company that tracks 2.5 million internet-connected thermometers across the country.”
I suppose I can assume that the Fitbit I got for Christmas is being tracked. Wonderful.
“I suppose I can assume that the Fitbit I got for Christmas is being tracked. Wonderful.”
You’re damn right. But look at the bright side - if Fitbit notices something wrong with you, you’ll have plenty of Google ads popping up with ‘treatment suggestions’, likely even before Fitbit lets you know of it.
Will this be the last freakout? Probably not—the Left is addicted to the hysterics over this virus.
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Bears repeating.
Lol. Okay, that is some hilarious looking at the bright side!
it’s time for the leftist fascist media to start winding down the pandemic so Covid Joe can declare victory before the midterms ...
“Omicron appears to be in retreat, even if the official national data doesn’t yet reflect that reality. Omicron also appears to be mild in a vast majority of cases, especially for the vaccinated.”
That is what many of us are expecting would happen. The QAnon faction (not you, lightman) is the real panic crowd around here. For months they put up hysterical headlines about how the vaccines were a conspiracy to kill everyone - with them it’s all either the sky is falling or you worship Fauci. Anything helpful, as well as any reasonable concerns and questions were drowned out by the crazy stuff.
“David Leonhardt has not been one to peddle panic porn about the virus, especially when it comes to Omicron. He aptly noted that this variant is no different than any other pathogen we face yearly with regards to risk. Hospitalizations aren’t as high, and the cases are mild.”
A certain ghoulish commenter should be along shortly to set this thread straight on the horrors of Omicron.
Colorado does seem to be improving but its case reporting is so sloppy it’s hard to tell, need a little time. Hospitalizations are down just slightly, which is a great sign. Too much noise in the death and case numbers to hang one’s hat on just yet.
Amen! to that. I split my time between our place in North Idaho and our long-term home on the San Francisco Peninsula. I was in Idaho July 3 to January 3, then returned to the Bay Area.
In Idaho, you'd almost never know anything is going on. The leftist newspaper in Coeur d'Alene does its best to keep the hysteria going with a front page "COVID Counter" (still!!). But hardly anybody wears a mask, you never see masked kids, you don't see people walking or hiking with masks and you never see people driving alone in their cars with masks.
Here in California the hysteria is palpable. I am constantly told off by bratty millennial children in stores -- "wear your mask, pull your mask up, put your mask on, your mask has to be over your nose, HIGHER!, I'm pregnant and high risk, you don't care about me, you have to leave the store NOW!" The neuroses in California are just unbelievable!
I see you skipped your daily run yesterday. Bad boy!!
My cousin who is an LEO told me-you bet your ass-it is tattling all sorts of info to who-knows-where-86 it if you prefer to do as you please in private-do you have Alexa, Ciri, etc too?
Haha. We actually went to the gym this morning. I doubt that the metrics will accurately reflect how awful of an experience it was.
I don’t have Alexa or Siri or even Cortana. I find the idea of a device talking to me even worse than one listening to me. My son has some kind of google thing that listens. One time when I had to use his shower, it started talking to me about what music to play. I asked it to kill itself. It did not obey.
Even here in BFE, we have a gym-but I don’t care to sweat in public-I bought my own free weights, bench, resistance cables/bands, etc a couple of years ago for about the same price as a years’ membership in that gym-no sweaty neighbors, no strange germs or China virus, etc...
Haha! When my new laptop told me I needed some music, I disabled the whole voice function-probably should have made it play everything AC/DC and Led Zeppelin ever made first-it might have self destructed...
Good move. An effective workout takes very little in the way of equipment. During lockdown, I got by with a floor, a wall, and a chin up bar. We are usually the only people at our gym on Saturday mornings, but I actually had to wait a couple of minutes today. Didn’t like it. My wife is always telling people “oh, you should join, it’s so uncrowded.” I just tell her that it needs to stay that way. It’s attached to a local hospital, so they don’t depend on membership to continue.
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