[CIB-173RDABN]

Taiwan is easy pickings for China.

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Wrong.

Taiwan is a fortress and they have had over 70 years to prepare. They say with war that the aggressors has to have two things to go to war, a willingness for war and the ability to fight a war. China might be willing but I doubt they have the ability.

The main problem for China is that there are only two times in a year the weather would be suitable for an invasion and even if the weather was good there are only a few places and invasion could land.

It took the allies almost two year of preparation before D Day in WWII. For China to invade Taiwan they would have to begin preparation months if not years. Once that preparation began Taiwan would know and begin their own preparation.

Another factor is money. China is not as wealthy as the image they project. The virus they released on the world is causing untold damage to the Chinese economy, the river of western money into China is drying up. They can not sell what they can not make or ship.

Lastly - Taiwan is not standing alone. Invade Taiwan and China will face a number of nations (Japan, Viet Nam, Australia, Philippians and India). These allies would not have fight, simply block China shipping.

So no, it is not likely that China will invade Taiwan (not unless they want WWIII)

[COBOL2Java]

Great analysis, thanks.

[adorno]

Taiwan is a fortress and they have had over 70 years to prepare.

A fortress can be overcome when they realize that they're defending against a much more powerful enemy, and surrendering rather than fighting and losing, becomes a very obvious alternative.

Plus, as witnessed in the past year, the U.S. cannot be counted on to help against China. China knows that the U.S. has a president who is very compromised, and Biden (and democrats) know it, so, back to my initial argument, Taiwan is easy pickings, even if very fortified.

With the U.S. not trustworthy to help a friend, WWIII is not a consideration, therefore, China and Russia have open roads towards invasion of their targets.

[jpsb]

Agreed, China does not want a rearmed and pissed off Japan on it’s doorstep.