I agree, but it is also this rationale that people like Zeihan and George Freedman warn may drive him to do something NOW, before his population of military aged men is gone forever.
I view Putin’s task as saving Mother Russia.
Flying war planes all over and pretending to be a military force in Syria is actually salesmanship. He has to sell weapons to generate cash and jobs. Military attachés can be shown the actual weapons more or less on the ground in use
Therefore, a risk that transforms Mother Russia’s perpetual bad health into pneumonia or some other mortal condition must be avoided.