I want my
I want my Omicron
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Posted on 12/17/2021 8:41:50 AM PST by BusterDog
So how many people are DYING from Omnicron?
I could only find one person who has died from it:
______________________
My neighbor, Barbara Land died this morning from the Omicron. 12/17/21. She was fully vaccinated and thin. I had the covid twice and this last time I thought I was going to die. Even had rattle in my lung.
Yes, this is an evil bioweapon. Rest in peace, Barb.
“the 48 million or so previously infected & recovered cases”
Through the end of September 2021, CDC estimated that around 147 million Americans had been previously infected (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html )
So even closer to that Herd Immunity Threshold.
It seemed that we were there for the original strain, after last Winter’s wave, but Delta needs a higher threshold.
After Delta and Omicron have had their runs, we will probably be over 90% of the population with some level of immunity.
“If you get Omnicron, since it is a variant of COVID, would that then provide you with natural immunity to other strains of COVID?”
The previous strains of COVID all conferred very strong immunity to re-infection by the other strains.
Omicron is so different (over 50 mutations) that the cross immunity with other strains is weaker - but it still seems pretty strong.
Out of the first 43 American cases identified and tracked, 6 had previously had COVID (14%). But that sample was tiny, and likely not random or really representative. In London, with wider spread/much higher numbers, it is running about 5% of the Omicron cases had previously had COVID.
It seems that Omicron will likely confer strong, but not perfect protection against re-infection by other strains of COVID - likely stronger than vaccination.
“US Omicron Daily Projections Model. 1,000,000 new cases per day in the US either just before or just after New Years Day.”
The peak of the pandemic so far in the USA, was around 300,000 new cases per day, on 8 January 2021.
One would think that if you recover, not guaranteed, you will be immune for a few days since that’s how you recovered. Yes. You have that right.
Bioweapon from Fauci. Variant - not.
“The peak of the pandemic so far in the USA, was around 300,000 new cases per day, on 8 January 2021.”
*****
That’s why I pointed that out, this projection is off the charts. If it’s anything close to true, we are all getting Omicron, vaxed, unvaxed, double vaxed, boosted, or recovered, and we are going to get it within 90 days.
Doesn't take much to frighten you, does it?
So, if you look at the way a “traditional” vaccine works ... a weakened or dead version of the virus is introduced to the body to create an immune response that the body can then replicate faster when reintroduced to the virus later. So Omnicrom, being a weaker version of COVID could actually be a “natural” vaccine.
Of course, out of the confirmed and/or suspected total case load in order to get the number of people walking around infected/recovered we'll have to reduce that number somewhat. Some passed away. Some may have left the US. Some unfortunate people are very susceptible and have caught it 2 or even 3 times. So the number of people walking around with some level of natural immunity will be somewhat less than the 147 million.
Then we have the 200 million or so vaccinated which should {snort} have some immunity. Obviously there will be some fairly significant overlap between the natural immunity group and the vaccinated group. Many got vaccinated after being sick (knowingly sick or not). Many got sick after being vaccinated.
But still, even if we knock out 20 million from the 147, and even if we go with as much as 50% overlap. That's 273 or so million out of 330 million or so. That's nearly 83%. You'd think for most nominally transmissible infections this should be about the herd immunity level. Unless of course the vaccines aren't really helping...
“this projection is off the charts. If it’s anything close to true, we are all getting Omicron”
Essentially.
It will taper off before it gets to the absolutely last person, but its transmissibility is so high, that its Herd Immunity Threshold must be correspondingly high - maybe over 90% of the population.
I would imagine that the professionals already have some estimate of that threshold - but they don’t seem to be running to microphones to share it.
As a practical matter, there is nothing they can do to stop it, so it is just going to have its run. Policymakers in the US and UK have apparently been briefed to expect a big surge, evidenced by the White House’s and Downing Street’s heads up to the the test manufacturers and labs.
As the guy in the article you linked noted, at a million per day, we will run out of testing capacity, and the additional cases just won’t be counted (maybe not treated).
Personally, I have prepared with a few weeks of food, in case I’m quarantined with it. I also am triple vaccinated with a fresh booster, and have a bunch of treatments on hand: Ivermectin, Zinc, Quercetin and tonic water in place of HCQ, Vitamins D3 and C, Melatonin, Pepcid, Aspirin, Lactoferrin and Bendryl. Probably overkill, but I might get Delta.
In any event, we are just going to have to gut it out. It seems to have crested pretty quick around Johannesburg.
I want my
I want my Omicron
“If it’s anything close to true, we are all getting Omicron”
Otherwise known as the winter cold.
“Unless of course the vaccines aren’t really helping...”
It may be that the bulk of the people who have not yet had COVID (and a good chunk of those who have) might have to get their case - vaccinated or not.
If that is the situation, there would be a lot of fuel left for Omicron to flare through - about half the population.
It does seem that the vaccines reduce severity/hospitalization/death significantly, but not so much protection from infection or transmission of Delta or Omicron.
“I want my Omicron”
*****
That’s the way you work it . . .
BarbM,
How did your neighbor know she had Omicron and not Delta?
If vaccination and prior infections don’t seem to slow Omicron much, I wonder if getting Omicron will affect delta or some other variant much...
I wonder what R0 is for this puppy...
“I wonder what R0 is”
I have heard 2, 2.5 and 3.
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