Posted on 12/15/2021 2:32:10 AM PST by UMCRevMom@aol.com
According to volunteers of the international intelligence community InformNapalm, in the near future, the Russian Federation plans to covertly transfer modernized anti-aircraft missile-gun complexes (ZRGK) "Shell-S1" to the occupied areas of Luhansk and Donetsk regions of Ukraine through uncontrolled sections of the border. The Russian military and political leadership thus pursues several tasks of tactical and strategic levels at once.
Since 2014, the occupied territories in eastern Ukraine have actually been a training ground for Russians and a convenient platform for testing various types of weapons and special equipment in combat conditions. As has been repeatedly recorded by international researchers and observers, significant amounts of ammunition, weapons and equipment are freely supplied through the Rostov region of the Russian Federation to eastern Ukraine, along with trained personnel from among the russian military and mercenaries. This opens up wide opportunities for russia's military tests, limited only by the Kremlin's desire to hide Russia's direct participation in the aggression against Ukraine. That is why Russia has been conducting a hybrid invasion of Ukraine since 2014. The Kremlin does this by hiding under the mask of "illegal armed groups" in order to minimize political consequences and avoid significant economic sanctions by the West.
After the Russian RGC "Shell-S1" showed its low effectiveness against Bayraktar TB2 attack UAVs in combat operations in Libya, Syria and Nagorno-Karabaakh, the Russian Federation seeks to take at least minimal revenge so as not to lose contracts from other states for the purchase of this type of complex. For example, according to Defense Express, as of June 2020, the total losses of Russian-made Anti-Aircraft Missile Systems "Shell C1" in Syria and Libya amounted to at least 23 units. At the same time, UAV losses were minimal. Most of the Russian RGC "Shell-S1" was destroyed by high-precision AMMUNITION MAM-L dropped from the Bayraktar TB2 UAV. This has definitely hit Russia's image as a weapons manufacturer.
That is why it was decided to announce a "deep modernization of the complex" and the creation of "Shell-S1M", which russian media have been actively creating the image of "drone killer" for the last six months. In numerous press releases in the media, the Russians emphasize that it is the new "Shell-S1M" that can fight against "all types of UAVs, including impact". Such a PR move partially worked, and Russia managed to sign several contracts for the supply of these complexes to Myanmar and Serbia.
Shell-S1M Screenshot from the news of the central state Russian news agency TASS on December 13, 2021.
Onslaught in eastern Ukraine
Apparently, the military and political leadership of Russia rethinked the old German slogan "Pressure on the East" (German. "Drang nach Osten"), which accompanied two world wars, and decided to use it in relation to the eastern part of Ukraine. Moscow realized that press releases, presentations, lobbying and publications in the media were not enough to create the image of a "drone killer" against the background of numerous practical examples of active defeat of the "Shell-S1" ZRGC.
In addition, in January 2021, there were reports of one of the Russian "Shells" captured in Libya being transferred to the US base in Germany. Therefore, further reverse engineering of these Russian complexes and the creation of technical documentation for the successful counteraction to these systems by NATO countries, if not yet carried out, is only a matter of time. And how deep and effective modernization in a short time can be provided by Russian specialists is not known for certain. Although the example of other systems and Russian developments shows that the modernization or search for alternative technical solutions in the face of sanctions pressure on the Russian Federation can last for years.
In addition, in January 2021, there were reports of one of the Russian "Shells" captured in Libya being transferred to the US base in Germany. Therefore, further reverse engineering of these Russian complexes and the creation of technical documentation for the successful counteraction to these systems by NATO countries, if not yet carried out, is only a matter of time. And how deep and effective modernization in a short time can be provided by Russian specialists is not known for certain. Although the example of other systems and Russian developments shows that the modernization or search for alternative technical solutions in the face of sanctions pressure on the Russian Federation can last for years. Therefore, in order to convince the reliability of the new "Shell-S1" systems, Russia seeks to shoot down at least one Bayraktar TB2 UAV in eastern Ukraine and make covert documentation of this process for presentation to its allies and potential buyers.
Despite the fact that the occupied territory of Ukraine is saturated with a significant number of the latest Russian REB/COER means, which have repeatedly fallen into the focus of OSINT research and OSCE SMM reports, Russia has so far failed to hunt any attack UAVs. Time is running out, and it is not possible to take revenge for image losses in Libya and Syria, so the Russians are also considering a conditional "plan B" as a spare option.
"Plan B" According to HUMINT intelligence officers, it is known that the Russian Federation, if it is not possible to actually hunt a Bayraktar TB2 UAV in eastern Ukraine, plans to conduct information and psychological manipulation and falsification of facts. In Donbas, they plan to bring the wreckage from the attack UAVs shot down in Syria, which will try to present as a "new victory for the air defense of illegal armed groups" (for the international community, so as not to expose Russian arms supplies to ORDLO). And for potential buyers of Russian complexes, the same fabricated information during the presentations will be presented as "an example of the effectiveness of the new "Shell-S1M".
Archival facts of fixation of ZRGC "Shell-S1" in eastern Ukraine It should be reminded that the non-modernized Russian S-1 missile defense systems have previously been recorded several times in the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine. For example, on February 18, 2015, the UK's official delegation to NATO published the following photo evidence:
In September 2015, InformNapalm, an international volunteer community, also presented its own OSINT research, which showed a photo from the profile of one of the mercenaries in donbas who took a selfie against the background of the Russian ZRGC "Shell S-1".
But since 2015, these complexes have ceased to fall on photos and videos. Probably, then Moscow decided to take its ZRGK "Shell S-1" back to the Rostov region, further from the extra eyes. Moreover, Ukrainian aviation ceased to be used in the area of the military operation. Therefore, the new decision on the next rollover of the "Shell S-1" ZRGC in Donbas became relevant only in 2021, when Ukraine first used the Bayraktar TB2 attack UAV in the war zone.
Conclusion The Russian Federation is planning another escalation of hostilities in eastern Ukraine. To do this, both the latest REB/ER equipment and other types of weapons and equipment continue to be transferred to ORDLO. The Russian Federation takes into account that compared to the active phase of hostilities in 2014-2015, the Ukrainian army now has much better weapons and equipment. The Russians are particularly at risk from Bayraktar TB2 attack UAVs, which have already shown their high effectiveness in combat operations in Libya, Syria and Nagorno-Karabaakh. Using Donbas as a military training ground for testing in combat conditions, the Russian Federation plans to solve several tactical and strategic tasks related both to aggression against Ukraine and to the export of its own weapons, which quickly lost its image during the battles in the Middle East.
It is possible that trying to hunt Ukrainian attack UAVs and the newest Russian "Shell-S1M" can become their target. Unlike Libya and Syria, Russian complexes in eastern Ukraine face a more difficult task: not to get even on photos or videos from UAVs and in the focus of OSINT research. Because only tweets with evidence of Russian aggression on the official pages of NATO countries can no longer do. Compared to 2015, the collective West is now much tougher on strengthening sanctions for any manifestations of Russian aggression against Ukraine. In the 8th year of the war, it is increasingly difficult for the Kremlin to remain under the mask of "illegal armed groups".
Sounds like Russia sucks a&&.
Must be airliner season again.
Check out similar infor at U.S. Defense News link
[comment #1]
https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2021/02/15/the-drone-defense-dilemma-how-unmanned-aircraft-are-redrawing-battle-lines/
As this article shows, Russia’s problem with eastern Ukraine is that the Ukraine government exhibits no control over it.
Russia does suck. But this ain’t our fight.
L
Ukrainian government "exhibits no control" over two parts of south-eastern provinces BECAUSE Putin has militarily propped up two pro-Russian separatist groups.
Who would name their weapons system “The Dumbass”?
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“Our technicians dismantled this drone to a cog, steamed the salt off the elements, read out all the boards and circuits“, commented the Army SOS volunteers. Through this painstaking work, we found out what components the Russian Orlan-10 drone consists of. Orlan-10 in detail GPS Tracker The GPS-tracker is located at 100/150 mm from the wing stub compartment. It is powered by an external and built-in battery. There was no SIM card in the data transmission module, the tracker must have been preprogrammed for certain operators. Microchips with the marking HC4060 2H7A201 and STC 12LE5A32S2 35i were made in China. Selection_941Selection_941 
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When does it become our fight? Paris? London?
“When does it become our fight?”
As I said previously. When a legitimate threat to American National security exists. We have no such interest in Ukraine.
L
We made a pledge if Ukraine agreed to nuclear disarmament *at the time they were had the 3rd largest stockpile.
The U.S. signed the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances
video https://www.nytimes.com/video/world/europe/100000002749138/confrontation-in-crimea.html?action=click&contentCollection=world&module=lede®ion=caption&pgtype=article
The Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances refers to three identical political agreements signed at the OSCE conference in Budapest, Hungary on 5 December 1994, providing security assurances by its signatories relating to Belarus’s, Kazakhstan’s and Ukraine’s accession to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. The memorandum was originally signed by three nuclear powers, the Russian Federation, the United States of America, and the United Kingdom. China and France gave somewhat weaker individual assurances in separate documents.
The memorandum included SECURITY ASSURANCES against threats or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan.
As a result, between 1994 and 1996, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine gave up their nuclear weapons. Before that, Ukraine had the world’s THIRD largest nuclear weapons stockpile. On 16 March, Russia annexed Crimea. Ukraine vigorously protested the action as a violation of Article 1 of the
Budapest Memorandum.
There are actually six obligations in the Budapest Memorandum, and the first IS: Respect Belarusian, Kazakh and Ukrainian independence and sovereignty and the EXISTING BORDERS.
The Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances refers to three identical political agreements signed at the OSCE conference in Budapest, Hungary on 5 December 1994, providing security assurances by its signatories relating to Belarus’s, Kazakhstan’s and Ukraine’s accession to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. The memorandum was originally signed by three nuclear powers, the Russian Federation, the United States of America, and the United Kingdom. China and France gave somewhat weaker individual assurances in separate documents.
The memorandum included security assurances against threats or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan.
As a result, between 1994 and 1996, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine gave up their nuclear weapons. Before that, Ukraine had the world’s third largest nuclear weapons stockpile,of which Ukraine had physical if not operational control. The use of the weapons was dependent on Russian-controlled electronic Permissive Action Links and the Russian command and control system.
Following the annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation in 2014, the US, Canada, the UK, along with other countries, stated that Russian involvement was a breach of its obligations to Ukraine under the Budapest Memorandum, a Memorandum transmitted to the United Nations under the signature of Sergei Lavrov, amongst others, and in violation of Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Thanks for that information. But it doesn’t change my position one bit.
Nothing in Ukraine is worth a single drop of American blood.
Nothing.
L
If Russia can conquer the EU before Klaus Schwab does, the world may yet luck out. :)
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