Despite its supposed high vaccination rate -- i.e., reported by the CDC to be 79.1% of the population age 12 and older, and 86.7% of the population age 65 and older -- the state of New York experienced an increase in COVID deaths of some 192% in August 2021, compared to August 2020 (when, of course, no one in the state had yet been vaccinated).
In September 2021, New York experienced an increase in COVID deaths of 160%, compared to (pre-vax) September 2020. For October 2021, the increase in COVID deaths compared to (pre-vax) October 2020 was 186%.
For whatever reason (and there are various possible explanations for it, I suppose), things have taken a decided turn for the worse in the state of New York in recent months, as far as COVID deaths are concerned. And winter hasn't even arrived.
Why is each year supposed to follow the pattern of the previous year, month by month? But if you want to do that, at least wait until January. January 2021 had 200 deaths a day. January 2022 will probably be 20 a day, especially if we import the new and even less deadly variant.