Posted on 10/20/2021 10:46:14 AM PDT by Conserv
West Long Branch, NJ – With two weeks to go before Election Day, Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Republican Glenn Youngkin are locked in a close battle for governor of Virginia. The last Monmouth (“Mon-muth”) University Poll of the race before the election marks a gain for the GOP candidate from prior polls. Youngkin’s improved position comes from a widening partisan gap in voter engagement and a shift in voters’ issue priorities, particularly around schools and the pandemic.
Youngkin (46%) and McAuliffe (46%) hold identical levels of support among all registered voters. This marks a shift from prior Monmouth polls where the Democrat held a 5-point lead (48% to 43% in September and 47% to 42% in August). A range of probabilistic likely electorate models* shows a potential outcome – if the election was held today – of anywhere from a 3-point lead for McAuliffe (48% to 45%) to a 3-point lead for Youngkin (48% to 45%). This is the first time the Republican has held a lead in Monmouth polls this cycle. All prior models gave the Democrat a lead (ranging from 2 to 7 points). A traditional “cut-off” model similar to what Monmouth used in elections prior to the 2018 midterm – which includes registered voters who cast a ballot in at least 2 of the last 4 general elections and report being “certain” or “likely” to vote, or have already voted – shows a close contest with 48% for McAuliffe and 46% for Youngkin.
The biggest swing in support from Monmouth’s last poll comes from independent voters, registering a 48% to 39% lead for Youngkin now compared with a 37% to 46% deficit in September. Youngkin has also cut into McAuliffe’s advantage with women voters. The Democrat currently has a narrow edge among women (47% to 43%), down from a sizable 14-point lead last month (52% to 38%).
Youngkin has increased his support in the reddest part of the commonwealth, western Virginia, where he currently leads McAuliffe by 66% to 27% (up from 58% to 34% in September). At the same time, McAuliffe has slipped slightly in heavily-blue Northern Virginia. He leads there by 58% to 34%. This is down only slightly from his 58% to 29% lead last month, however, incumbent Democratic Gov. Ralph Northam won this key region by 35 points (67% to 32%) in 2017. McAuliffe holds small leads in both the eastern Tidewater (48% to 42%) and central I-95/Richmond (48% to 41%) areas.
“Suburban women, especially in Northern Virginia, have been crucial to the sizable victories Democrats have enjoyed in the commonwealth since 2017. However, their support is not registering at the same level this time around. This is due partly to a shift in key issues important to these voters and partly to dampened enthusiasm among the party faithful,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.
Voter engagement metrics among all registered voters have been fairly stable over the past three months – 74% are very motivated and 34% are more enthusiastic about this election than usual. But the overall stability masks a widening partisan gap. In August, similar numbers of Republicans (75%) and Democrats (76%) said they were very motivated to vote this year. That grew to a 5-point GOP advantage in September (85% to 80%) and has creeped up to a 7-point advantage in the current poll (79% to 72%).
Voter enthusiasm shows an even wider disparity. This metric stood at a 13-point Republican advantage in prior polls – 34% GOP to 21% Democrat in August and 44% to 31% in September. That disparity has grown to a 23-point chasm in the current poll – 49% GOP to 26% Democrat.
Looking at the national picture, President Joe Biden gets a negative 43% approve and 52% disapprove rating from Virginia voters, which is down from his 46% to 49% rating in August. Northam gets a 46% approve and 42% disapprove rating for his performance as governor, which is comparable to his 48% to 42% rating in August.
“Motivation tends to be a better indication of turnout than self-reported enthusiasm. The gridlock in Washington certainly plays a role in dampening Democrats’ mood, but there are some stumbles on the part of the McAuliffe campaign that have also had an impact. Either way, this voter engagement gap is good news for Youngkin,” said Murray.
The Monmouth poll finds that a recent shift in voter issue priorities has helped Youngkin. The top issues chosen as the most important first or second factor in Virginians’ vote for governor are jobs and the economy (45%, up from 39% in September) and education and schools (41%, up from 31%). Just 23% name the Covid pandemic as one of their top two issues, which is a drop from 32% last month.
Youngkin has drawn even with McAuliffe on being trusted more to handle education and schools (39% to 38%). He trailed the Democrat on this issue in September (33% to 37%) and August (31% to 36%). The Republican now holds a small trust advantage on jobs and the economy – 39% to 34% who trust McAuliffe more. The Virginia electorate was more evenly split on this issue in prior polls (36% Youngkin to 35% McAuliffe in September and 35% to 33% in August). Youngkin has also widened his advantage on handling taxes (40% to 30%) and has drawn even with McAuliffe on handling the abortion issue (33% Youngkin to 35% McAuliffe).
At the same time, McAuliffe’s sizable advantage on handling the pandemic has shrunk. He now holds a 37% to 31% edge over Youngkin on being trusted more to handle Covid policies. This issue was a bigger winner for him in prior polls (41% to 28% in September and 38% to 26% in August).
“McAuliffe’s sizable edge on handling Covid and his competitiveness on economic issues last month helped put him ahead in this race, but Youngkin has been able to change the terms of the debate, by using his opponent’s words on parental involvement in the school curriculum to shift voter attention on that issue. Not only has this eaten away at the Democrat’s previous advantage on education policy, but it has also raised doubts about McAuliffe’s ability to handle the pandemic,” said Murray.
Youngkin currently earns a better personal rating – 41% favorable to 29% unfavorable – than McAuliffe does – 39% favorable to 39% unfavorable. The Republican’s numbers are similar to his rating last month (40% to 31%), while the Democrat’s numbers have worsened since September (40% to 33%).
“To counter his own growing negatives, McAuliffe launched a series of ads painting Youngkin as an extremist while this poll was in the field. It’s not clear whether this blitz will move the needle, but the Democrat needs it to do just that if he wants to return to Richmond,” said Murray.
The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from October 16 to 19, 2021 with 1,005 Virginia registered voters. The question results in this release have a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.
To be even in a “registered voters” poll for a Democrat is a bad place to be.
Rat Party hack====> 50.25%
GOP Challenger===> 49.72%
Mail In Balloting...
Unfortunately too close to beat the cheat I’m afraid
They’re fraud as much as needed.. just like 2020
Yep, close is not enough. Gotta be well ahead to have any chance of winning.
Not too long ago, a Republican nearly won a Virginia US senate seat because he came out strongly against changing the name of the Washington Redskins. The race wasn’t even on anyone’s radar.
I believe the school issue will give Youngkin the win.
Let the voter fraud begin.
You could just encourage people to vote.
Independents are swinging far away from the rat party. I’m expecting 2022 to be a very good year, setting up the same as 1994 and 2010.
Stories like this will only serve to make it that much more disappointing when the ‘rats steal it. I’d rather hear that Mcauliffe has a 5 point lead, cuz that’s what is hoping to happen.
Pandering for votes.
Glenn Youngkin
“As Governor, every budget I sign will include direct funding for all five Historically Black Colleges and Universities.”
Democrats saddened and in need to ramp up the fraud machine
“As Governor, every budget I sign will include direct funding for all five Historically Black Colleges and Universities.”
I hope he didn’t really say that since it accomplishes absolutely nothing, but if he did say it then he’s just trying to accomplish something unique in the history of Republican politics — because the next Republican who panders to racists and wins an election by doing so will be the first one. You can NEVER out-pander a Democrat and it’s beyond foolish to try.
We've seen this a thousand times now.
To save our nation, every state must audit the 2020 election, and any after that time.
Political polls don’t matter.
It’s all about who controls the voting machines.
Registered voters - Republican probably up two among likely voters.....
1) Press gang Fast Terry on election morning for a gaffe. Hit him squarely with Loudoun, does he think Brenda Sheridan should also resign, is he prepared to investigate and remove Herr Ziegler immediately?
2) Democrat Election Day turnout down by 20% or more. Have legal ready to oppose polling site time extensions. Kumbaya.
3) Youngkin should declare victory at 7pm on the exit polling alone. Have a media crew punching down on the MSM from the moment the polls close. Put Youngkin front-and-center talking about the win, how they overcame the odds, and how they are expecting a concession phone call from Fast Terry at any moment.
This race will NOT be close. Youngkin will win by 7 or 8 points at least. I have been looking at the early voting stats compared to the governor’s race in 2017. In Republican-heavy areas like the Shenandoah Valley, the early vote has tripled (or more) compared to 2017, while in Democrat areas like Arlington the early vote is up by 40-50%. In 2017, anti-Trump Democrat turnout was sky-high and Republican turnout was soft, so you would expect Republican early voting to be up at a higher rate as compared to Dems this time around. However, these numbers are eye-popping. Chesterfield County, which is a suburban county outside of Richmond, barely flipped to Biden after 70 years of being red. The EV there is through the roof, which signals that “buyers remorse” is about to hit on the Dems. This race is Maryland 2014 all over again when Hogan won a surprisingly easy victory vs. the Dem.
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