Posted on 10/20/2021 9:56:59 AM PDT by Boomer
America has already slipped into a recession that could be as bad as the 2008 financial meltdown according to key consumer data, a Dartmouth College professor has warned.
David Blanchflower, of Dartmouth, and Alex Bryson, of University College London, say that every slump since the 1980s has been foreshadowed by 10-point drops in consumer indices from the Conference Board and University of Michigan.
The indices are drawn from questions put to ordinary Americans about their income expectations, employment conditions and what they expect for the US economy in the near future.
(Excerpt) Read more at dailymail.co.uk ...
Not in California either. Extended to mid 2022 for most cities.
And from what I heard, there are many 100,000s of eviction suits filed. They are on pause. When that ends, it will take years to clear the cases.
As for your business..anything that does repairs to machinery/equipment/cars will do well.
Still, what do they now include to estimate inflation? Food? Cars? Gasoline/fuel/energy? etc?
What did they include in the late 1970s?
fed has painted itself into a corner with congress’ help
inflation will run unabated
“and you were doing so well with your cherry-picking of economic data points — until you got to the end there”
We are going through some fairly decent times right now irregardless of inflation.
To compare this to a recession is laughable. Jobs are plentiful, The millennial couple down the road just bought their first house at a low interest rate. Not 15-18% like back in the early 80’s.
People are upgrading to higher paying jobs.
Doom and gloomers want to wallow in unhappiness.
“I figure the supply chain issues will sort out in the next year or so.”
No they wont. Because the cost of diesel is so high, the trucking firms will fold. They cant pay higher wages BECAUSE of fuel/tire/repair costs.
The “New” trucks run half the time the older mechanical trucks ran. One little sensor goes bad and the truck shuts down. Air filter getting plugged? Well it warns you, you have a certain amount of time to correct it, dont correct it and the truck shuts down. Or the engine blows.
At some point, the crap will hit the fan from government overborrowing and increased welfare combined with higher unemployment.
“And from what I heard, there are many 100,000s of eviction suits filed. They are on pause. When that ends, it will take years to clear the cases.”
I am a landlord and belong to some fb landlord groups. Tenants out of nowhere are finding money to pay back rent or at least pay extra payments.
Seec WSJ article below.
That’s good to hear. I have an old friend, elderly lady who owns a couple of properties. One of them is a 3 bedroom condo in a fairly posh area. The tenant just refuses. $4000 a month. My friend needs that money as her income. She has had no income for nearly 2 years on that property. There is no way the tenant will ever pay a little extra later on, she won’t even pay half now. And the tenant is protected by city law for 6 more months.
Nice landlords would be understanding and work it out some way or another. Nice tenants would try.
I hear you. It may take longer but eventually the backlogs will clear. But yes you are right about the trucks. Those regulations and the controlling impulses of heavy-equipment makers need changing. It takes something like 10,000 trucks turns to haul off one container ship. (one container = one truck x 10,000-30,000 containers per ship). Well there will be 100+ ships in Los Angeles this weekend alone. Even if they could haul them all where can they put them? How to get them to their destination? Resources are either not available or are regulated out of the opportunity.
Local hauling is also a huge bottleneck. I shipped half a trailer of goods using a major carrier. It took 3 days before they could pick it up in the local route. It arrived at the hub four states away in 3 days (1 day faster than estimated) and then sat in the hub 11 days. They couldn’t get enough drivers to deliver my shipment just a few miles from their hub.
The economy has been skewed, ....and screwed.
They won’t raise interest rates until after the midterms. Democrat corruption runs to all departments - it’s NOT what’s best for the country - it’s what’s best for the democrat party. And what’s best for the democrat party is to hold off raising rates..
Their problem is debt. Their solution is inflation.
however, it is also incorrect of you to disregard inflation.
It’s not doom and gloom — inflation is the worst in 30 years. Also you disregarded the skyrocketing gasoline prices.
Gas prices and inflation are getting to the point at which they could become baked into the economy, forcing the Fed to raise interest rates.
if that happens, your much-ballyhooed stock market would tank. Investors would jettison equities and possible jump over to bonds. Or gold.
“Not even close. Stock market today is heading into record territory, homes are selling, people have jobs.”
Are you effin retarded?
The real economy, across the board is tanking. Folks are LOSING their jobs. Folks have a bankroll of Free Money for a very short time. Foreclosures are gonna BOOM. And they’ll be bought up for pennies by Big Shots. Gas, Food, Medical Insurance everything is going up big right now.
If you got yours already, good for you.
The next generation(s?) are so screwed, and sadly so mis-educated that they don’t even know it.
You’ll own nothing and like it.
72-76 level of stagflation + high energy prices => cutting the demand for everything else that is affected by higher production prices and shipping prices.
“Nice landlords would be understanding and work it out some way or another. Nice tenants would try.”
And everyone else would burn the place to the ground, collect the insurance, and call it a day.
Very good.
But the Elites using a front of Marxists proceed with multi-trillion dollar budget proposals, mass vaccinations and vaccine passports, building a CCP style social credit system, furtherance of the electronic election rigging system, prolonged unemployment, tolerance and enabling of border incursions, critical race brainwashing, and on and on to full Cultural Marxism in a takedown of the United States.
Meanwhile, for a while we bask in low interest rates while the PRC plans to attack Taiwan without the US Biden Administrator doing anything to defend it.
we’re not getting any govt help....what is this govt “help” they talk about.....and yet, we’re still supposed to pay these high property taxes and income taxes.
I was thinking the same thing.
The Winter Olympics in Beijing are only four months away.
I would be surprised if China moved against Taiwan before then.
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