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To: karpov

Risk assessment was part of my job before I retired a few months ago. Too many people see it as only two metrics:

1. Risk of the bad thing happening.
2. Cost of bad thing happening and cost to rectify the situation afterward.

They ignore the third metric:

3. Cost of mitigating the risk.

This is why all buildings are not hardened for meteor strikes or close proximity nuclear blast - or why a solar flare or EMP would take out the power grid (not to mention your car). The third metric is simply too expensive, regardless of metric two being really bad. And that is because metric one plays into it heavily.

This is why bolts on many sub-assemblies on airplanes have a hole in the bolt head and a wire running through it - prevents loosening and loss of the bolt, while cars don’t bother with this. The likelihood of it happening is low, but the cost if it DOES happen is very high, and the cost of mitigation is reasonable.


3 posted on 10/14/2021 7:11:09 AM PDT by cuban leaf (We killed our economy and damaged our culture. In 2021 we will pine for the salad days of 2020.)
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To: cuban leaf
Risk assessment was part of my job before I retired a few months ago.

Wow... you must really be driven crazy by all the news in the past 2 years.

As a global society, we seem to have lost ALL ability to properly evaluate and categorize risk.

5 posted on 10/14/2021 7:46:05 AM PDT by SomeCallMeTim ( The best minds are not in government. If any were, business would hire them!it)
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To: cuban leaf
or why a solar flare or EMP would take out the power grid (not to mention your car).

Myth.

6 posted on 10/14/2021 7:47:15 AM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn...)
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