[Political Junkie Too]

I'm not a fan of McConnell's esoteric reasons for supporting his "win by losing" strategies. He usually loses because they end up being deals where the Republicans give first and then the Democrats renege.

That said...

From the article:

Democrats had opposed using the Senate's "reconciliation process" (which allows the passage of fiscal-related legislation with only 51 votes, thus avoiding a possible filibuster) to raise the debt ceiling because they claimed not to have enough time. It was too complicated a process to do before October 18, they said. (And in fact it would have had to be one of the fastest reconciliation processes ever.) Ok, McConnell responded, we'll give you more time.

Why would McConnell accede to this? He believes the Democrats are playing a losing hand, politically, on the debt ceiling and, more broadly, on their hugely ambitious spending plans. He wants to force them to vote using reconciliation, and with a December deadline, that's what they'll have to do.

This may be a "don't throw me in the briar patch" strategy.

By Senate rules, Congress may only use the reconciliation process to pass a spending bill, a revenue bill (taxes), and a debt limit bill. They can only pass one of each via reconciliation per fiscal year (which began on October 1). For example, if Congress bundles both tax and spend laws into a single reconciliation bill, that uses up both the tax and spend slots, and they cannot do another one until the next fiscal year via reconciliation. They would need to use the normal legislative process that is subject to cloture.

By forcing Democrats to rush through a raise to the debt limit via reconciliation, they cannot do it again until October 1, 2022, which is probably why Democrats were opposed to using the reconciliation process for this right now. They wanted to save it for next year when they got closer to the mid-term elections.

Will this work out to Republicans' favor? Who knows? It feels like a sports coach who is saving a time-out for the end of the game, and then ends up not using it when it could have mattered earlier in the game. McConnell could have forced the Democrats now by making them vote 50-50 with Harris breaking the tie to make the Democrats own raising the debt ceiling, but he didn't. He took that campaign oppo off the table.

Will forcing the Democrats to spend a reconciliation slot now to raise the debt ceiling matter next year, or will McConnell get snookered again by something else that he deems to be critical at the time?

-PJ

[af_vet_1981]

He usually loses because they end up being deals where the Republicans give first and then the Democrats renege.

He delivered 3 Supreme Court nominees more likely to overturn Roe vs. Wade than any court in memory since this grievous ruling condemned over 50 million babies to be slaughtered. He did it with a slim and fragile Republican Senate majority that he held together. He did this in concert with the greatest American President in my lifetime, Donald Trump, whether they personally got along or not. He is therefore the best Senate Majority leader in my lifetime.

[blueplum]

thanks very much for the analysis. I didn’t know this part, which seems important:
“By forcing Democrats to rush through a raise to the debt limit via reconciliation, they cannot do it again until October 1, 2022”

[Mr. Jeeves]

Will this work out to Republicans' favor?

In the pre-Dominion days, Democrats would have had to answer for their decisions at the ballot box. So it used to work - but Mitch has not yet adapted to the new paradigm.