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The mother of real estate bubbles looms in China: The consequences of the collapse of a large corporation like Evergrande are different in a command economy
American Thinker ^ | 09/30/2021 | Peter Kauffner

Posted on 09/30/2021 9:11:00 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

You don't have to spend much time in China to notice the mystifying glut of half-built apartment complexes, neighborhoods, and even ghost cities. There are certainly legitimate residences getting built, but the buildings I have in mind are concrete frameworks with no doors or window frames. They feature sky cranes and scaffolding but no construction workers. Buildings sit in this condition month after month. China is estimated to have enough unsold "housing" of this type for 90 million people.

These empty buildings are a manifestation of China's enormous property bubble. The real estate sector has grown to at least 25 percent of the county's GDP. This makes China's bubble significantly larger than historic bubbles in, for example, Spain and Japan.

Turmoil at Evergrande, the country's second-largest developer, has drawn attention in the international press. Evergrande's bond prices are now only a fourth of what they were in March.

Although Chinese culture emphasizes thrift and savings, there is no tradition of ordinary people investing in anything other than real estate. They can't invest abroad. Local stocks and bonds have a poor reputation.

The empty buildings are essentially a form of land speculation. Developers must build something on the land, or it reverts to the government after a certain amount of time.

The government runs Chinese banks. They often finance shell projects and unneeded infrastructure as a way of padding GDP statistics. At the beginning of the pandemic, the government responded by encouraging loans of this type. But it later reversed course.

The banks began cracking down on property-related loans a year ago, triggering the crisis at Evergrande. Under the "three red lines" policy, developers must now bring their debt load below specified levels.

Evergrande is not expected to survive an upcoming series of payment deadlines.

(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: china; collapse; evergrande; realestate; realty
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1 posted on 09/30/2021 9:11:00 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

Die Chine, Die!


2 posted on 09/30/2021 9:13:35 AM PDT by Reno89519 (Respect America, Embrace America, Buy American, Hire American.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Very interesting. Wonder how it is going to play out?


3 posted on 09/30/2021 9:13:41 AM PDT by MeneMeneTekelUpharsin (Freedom is the freedom to discipline yourself so others don't have to do it for you.)
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To: MeneMeneTekelUpharsin

As the author observes...

Xi Jinping’s policy of shielding China and its businesses from scrutiny could lead to a backlash from foreign investors. Although China has significant savings of its own, such investment still plays a crucial role in the economy, as the dysfunctional property market illustrates.

Fresh from his victory over the pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong, Xi is imposing a dystopian vision on one sector of Chinese society after another. Alibaba boss Jack Ma and the other tech moguls, China’s swaggering elite until just last October, have been brought to heel.

Ma was planning the largest initial public offering ever when the party demanded that he pull the plug. The tech giants have turned over months of profits to the government to show their loyalty. Popular actors have been erased from the internet with no explanation given.

Paid private tutoring on core subjects, such as English, has been banned. Chinese high school students focus their studies on passing the college entrance exam, which once emphasized English. Courses on “Xi Jinping Thought” are replacing those that taught English.

For many years, China focused on economic growth and catching up with the West. Not for the first time, the country has turned inward. This follows a recurring pattern in Chinese history that scholars call “anti-foreignism.” Previous examples include the Boxer Rebellion of 1900 and the Cultural Revolution of the 1960s. The “Great Firewall” keeps foreign influence off the Chinese internet. The communications technologies once thought to be a bulwark of freedom have been repurposed as tools of authoritarianism.


4 posted on 09/30/2021 9:14:30 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind
Not for the first time, the country has turned inward.

The chamber of commerce types are going to regret the day they participated in the coup and failed to heed Trump's warnings once the CCP nationalizes all of their factories.

5 posted on 09/30/2021 9:19:21 AM PDT by Sirius Lee (They intend to murder us. Prep if you want to live and live like you are prepping for eternal life)
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To: SeekAndFind

There was a need for cheap math tutoring in China.

Math tutoring is going to be expensive now.


6 posted on 09/30/2021 9:23:32 AM PDT by Brian Griffin ( )
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To: Reno89519

The China the?


7 posted on 09/30/2021 9:23:46 AM PDT by Rurudyne (Standup Philosopher)
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To: SeekAndFind

I have a hard time listening to an author who says things like:

“China’s debt increased to 270 percent of GDP in 2020 at the start of the pandemic. But it has since come under control.”

It has since come under control? Prove it, without using numbers controlled by the Chinese communist government.


8 posted on 09/30/2021 9:31:30 AM PDT by Cincinnatus.45-70 (What do DemocRats enjoy more than a truckload of dead babies? Unloading them with a pitchfork!)
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To: SeekAndFind

“The real estate sector has grown to at least 25 percent of the county’s GDP. “
...

“Although Chinese culture emphasizes thrift and savings, there is no tradition of ordinary people investing in anything other than real estate.”
...

“The government runs Chinese banks. They often finance shell projects and unneeded infrastructure as a way of padding GDP statistics.”

Oh, yeah. This shouldn’t be a problem to have China’s economy implode.


9 posted on 09/30/2021 9:44:00 AM PDT by Flick Lives (We may or may not have reached herd immunity, but we've definitely achieved herd stupidity.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Central planning. Government ownership of the people.


10 posted on 09/30/2021 9:44:34 AM PDT by lurk ( )
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To: SeekAndFind

China has enough empty housing for 90,000,000 people?

Send the Haitians there.


11 posted on 09/30/2021 10:03:06 AM PDT by blueunicorn6 ("A crack shot and a good dancer”)
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To: SeekAndFind

What really drives he bubble is Chinese men must own property before they can marry. No property, no woman will look at them and, more importantly, the two families will not approve.


12 posted on 09/30/2021 10:36:17 AM PDT by PIF (They came for me and mine ... now its your turn)
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To: Brian Griffin

There was a need for cheap math tutoring in China.


As well as English - teaching jobs by foreigners are on the new CCP hit list.


13 posted on 09/30/2021 10:37:56 AM PDT by PIF (They came for me and mine ... now its your turn)
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To: SeekAndFind

Ma was planning the largest initial public offering ever when the party demanded that he pull the plug.


Before he became parts and pieces in some organ transplant coolers.


14 posted on 09/30/2021 10:39:07 AM PDT by PIF (They came for me and mine ... now its your turn)
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To: SeekAndFind

the Cultural Revolution of the 1960s was about destroying traditional Chinese culture and showing the Soviets that Mao’s China was an agricultural and industrial powerhouse - eliminating foreign influences was just a side effect.


15 posted on 09/30/2021 10:42:03 AM PDT by PIF (They came for me and mine ... now its your turn)
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To: blueunicorn6

China has enough empty housing for 90,000,000 people?

Almost all of those empty apartments and housing complexes are unlivable and down right dangerous to enter (if entering is even possible), let alone live in.


16 posted on 09/30/2021 10:44:13 AM PDT by PIF (They came for me and mine ... now its your turn)
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To: SeekAndFind

“Buildings sit in this condition month after month”

You would have to tear them down and start over, I’m thinking.


17 posted on 09/30/2021 10:46:49 AM PDT by dynachrome ("I will not be reconstructed, and I do not give a damn.")
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To: PIF

The Haitians are natural builders.

They could turn those buildings into palaces.


18 posted on 09/30/2021 10:48:20 AM PDT by blueunicorn6 ("A crack shot and a good dancer”)
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To: SeekAndFind

That would be pronounced Lear Estate Bubber.


19 posted on 09/30/2021 10:50:27 AM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn...)
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To: dynachrome

RE: You would have to tear them down and start over.

Recently, they demolished 15 buildings simultaneously via controlled explosion. See here:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Om6b0_ffyFQ


20 posted on 09/30/2021 11:05:28 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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