Posted on 09/28/2021 11:07:06 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
There's Not much to add today that we didn't already cover overnight in "All Hell Is Breaking Loose In Energy Markets" suffice to note that European gas prices (Dutch TTF and UK NBP) are up another 12% today to new all time highs...
... and while all the dynamics we listed yesterday are all still applicable, we can add one more: a sudden drop off in Russian nat gas deliveries via the Yamal-Europe pipeline that runs across Belarus and Poland to Mallnow, Germany...
... which shrank lumped by 57% to the lowest level since Sept 6, just as a panicking Europe is scrambling for every BCF.
In an email seen by Bloomberg, Gazprom said that it continues to fully meet obligations under its supply contracts, adding that the current drop in Russian gas supplies via Mallnow is due to a request from a client and is temporary... although if it is anything as "temporary" as the current hyperinflation across the globe, then Europe is about to have a very unpleasant winter, at least until the Ukraine-bypassing Nord Stream 2 is activated - just as Putin wants.
Meanwhile, in an ominous development, US nat gas futures are starting to move in lockstep with Europe, and overnight Henry Hub topped $6/mmbtu for the first time since 2014.
And as iconic trader John Arnold warned on twitter recently, the surge in commodity prices will the surest way to crush any desire to go "green", which of course was obvious to all and is why we - rhetorically - asked back in June whether ESG will trigger energy hyperinflation.
Higher fossil fuel prices will spur a faster shift to renewable sources, all else equal, as they become economically competitive in more uses/geographies. But very high oil/gas prices risk a voter backlash against decarbonization policies, which are vital to a cleaner future. 7/ — John Arnold (@JohnArnoldFndtn) September 24, 2021
Meanwhile, as we wait for Europe's green dream to go up in carbon-heavy smoke as the continent has no choice but to destroy its virtue and ramp up coal plants, we leave the last word to Bloomberg's Javie Blas who writes that he has "never seen a large economy like Europe (UK+EU) sleep walking into an energy crunch (maybe let's call it a crisis since major industrial companies are having to shut down) and no a single politician appears to give a damn about it. Incredible."
European one-year forward electricity, spot natural gas, spot thermal coal, and spot CO2 emissions prices have risen (again) this morning to fresh all-time highs.
— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) September 28, 2021
It’s not Putin. It’s the EU overlords cutting back on gas orders. Helps them implement their bizarre green agenda. Think about it. The Russian economy has been described as nothing but a nation with a gas station. Russia wants to sell all the gas it can to get all the cash possible. The EU however, want to destroy all use of so called called fossil fuels.
Russia gains no benefit from cutting off gas, EU politicians gains enormous benefit as they push for more wind and solar.
I really don’t understand this whole thing. Europe has tremendous amounts of GREEN ENERGY SUPPLIERS so why don’t they simply pass a law to increase wind velocity and days of sunshine?
Bummer. Of course, the loss of supply anywhere has an impact on prices everywhere, so, brace yourself. Oh, and brace yourself for the attacks on US gasoline retailers, refiners, and oil companies, even right here on FR.
“It’s a conundrum.”
Which one? Not one of those silly colored ones with the curly Q tip I hope.....
Nuke plants too! All those froot loop freaks voted for it. The commies don;t have to steal elections over there. I only feel sorry for the kids!
I live in Spain. We moved here in early 2016 and I can count on 1 hand the number of times we have turned the heat on. That said, many of the locals use bottled gas for cooking so they will still be affected by shortages.
Germany and UK have already had to fire up the coal furnaces to cover shortfalls in August and September. As gas supplies continue tight and weather worsens, they will have to keep them running. It will be their great embarrassment in Glasgow in November that the assembled greenies of the world will have to use coal to keep the lights on.
Yep, I may need one as a backup if Biden keeps screwing things up.
After Fukushima Merkel ordered something like thirteen nuclear plants closed. UK is sitting on huge gas reserves but won’t drill for it, and won’t keep any in reserve. This “crisis” is 100% self-induced by idiot euro fools.
Sorry, no more dung chips - cattle have been outlawed (they produce too much methane and besides, “meat is murder”).
That’s fake news, of course.
One pipe decreased supply after the UK threatened sanctions on it over Ryanair incident, what about others?
Gazprom keeps supplying Europe through at least two other major pipelines and out of its local reserves, which are lower than usual but no risk of shortage so far.
The real pressing issue for Europeans is why the promised American LNG is missing on their terminals and all went to China instead.
It might be easily fixed by lifting the “anti-monopoly” legislation, limiting Gazprom to just 50% of its transit capacity the rest for “alternative” which doesn’t exist.
To end procrastination regarding Nord Stream II certification would be of great help as well.
Sounds like my cat. :-)
When burning wood is outlawed.....
I love that! I wish I could have a cat. Too many in my family are allergic to cats.
Absolutely correct!
Nazi/Commie nonaggression pacts usually don’t last much longer than it takes to dry the ink. Maybe Stalin’s wish to commit genocide in Germany didn’t just go away.
Excellent... Liberals first instinct is to make things worse...
When possible, it is always a good thing to have a fireplace and a few cords of seasoned wood.
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