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Analysis indicates Dems could lose 41 House seats
bizpacreview.com ^

Posted on 09/21/2021 12:00:17 PM PDT by Conserv

A new analysis of President Joe Biden’s downward-trending approval ratings finds that his Democratic Party could hemorrhage as many as 41 seats in the House during next year’s midterm elections, or close to as many as then-President Donald Trump’s GOP lost in 2018.

Glen Bolger of Public Opinion Strategies told the Washington Examiner that it is not difficult to tie presidential polling to election outcomes and because Biden’s approval rating continues to decline, he believes the president’s party will lose close to the 41 seats lost during Trump’s midterm, or 34 more than the GOP needs to regain control of the chamber.

This, before states have even redrawn their congressional districts to comport with the 2020 Census.

“As baseball great Yogi Berra famously said, it’s deja vu all over again,” Bolger said as he released his analysis and findings.

Biden’s ratings have been tumbling for months, but his approval took a significant hit following the deadly and turbulent withdrawal from Afghanistan. That said, Bolger noted that he has discovered the Republicans made “significant inroads” with all voting blocs except younger Americans who don’t normally turn out in great numbers on Election Day anyway.

And he said that the congressional ballot is essentially tied — the first time that has happened since 2015, as President Barack Obama’s second term was waning.

“Joe Biden’s overall disapproval rating and, more challenging for him, his strong disapproval ratings are right where Donald Trump’s were just prior to the November 2018 midterm elections, when the party in power lost the House and numerous gubernatorial seats,” he said.

Ads by “I would hate to be in charge of candidate recruitment for Democrats because no Democrat in their right mind and a competitive seat would want to run in this political environment,” he added.

Meanwhile, Republican pollsters John and Jim McLaughlin revealed, “In terms of what to expect for the 2022 midterms, our polling of likely voters suggests that Republicans lead the Democrats in the generic vote for Congress 47%-46% with 7% undecided.”

“This means likely voters are more willing to support a generic group of Republicans rather than a generic group of Democratic candidates for Congress,” they added.

And, as Democrats become increasingly dispirited over the president’s falling support, GOP lawmakers and hopefuls are becoming more emboldened ahead of next year’s elections, and that enthusiasm is being led by the former president, in large part, the Examiner reported.

Pollster Scott Rasmussen, known for his accurate surveys, said that Trump’s voters are keyed up, noting that 75 percent of them are “very motivated” to cast ballots.

But November 2022 is still more than a year away, and Democrats are hoping that Biden can get some new traction and reverse his downward slide in the polls. Jonathan Zogby of Zogby Analytics told the Examiner that voters could move back towards Biden if the massive $3.5 trillion spending package he wants to be passed makes it to his desk and delivers on social welfare and infrastructure projects in their districts.

“The big problem Republicans face is can Biden and the Democrats get their monstrous infrastructure bill passed, which for them can buy enough time to provide more stimulus and pork to keep the economic balloon inflated. That would give Democrats the edge to retain majorities,” Zogby noted.

“If for some reason they cannot pass a big infrastructure bill, Republicans can focus on a not-so-great economy and Biden’s vaccine mandates, which threaten freedoms and hurt small businesses,” he noted further.

The Senate, at 50-50, is also in play for Republicans to recapture, Zogby and other analysts say.

“Overall, it’s close, and I see Republicans with more of an advantage right now to win both chambers — but not by huge amounts,” Zogby noted.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2022
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No matter what some people here say, EVERYONE needs to vote come Nov 2022.
1 posted on 09/21/2021 12:00:17 PM PDT by Conserv
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To: Conserv

I’ll need to collect at least 10 mail in ballots to counteract my democrat neighbors and their dead relatives.


2 posted on 09/21/2021 12:02:34 PM PDT by PGR88
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To: Conserv

The 32nd wave will be active by then. People will be more terrified than ever. Mail in cheating will be rampant, and we know who counts the votes. IF the Dems lose the House, they’ll win the Senate, or vice versa.

Yeah, I’m beyond cynical at this point.


3 posted on 09/21/2021 12:02:51 PM PDT by brownsfan (For conservatives, we have taxation without representation.)
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To: Conserv

I’m thinking a repeat of 2010.
Biden is much less popular than Obama was in 2009-10


4 posted on 09/21/2021 12:03:12 PM PDT by Zathras
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To: Conserv

“or close to as many as then-President Donald Trump’s GOP lost in 2018.”

Vs.

“or close to as many as then-Speaker of the House Paul Ryan’s GOP lost in 2018.”


5 posted on 09/21/2021 12:03:12 PM PDT by cdcdawg (The vaccines don't work)
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To: Conserv
Wot?

Biden's approval rating at 50%

6 posted on 09/21/2021 12:03:39 PM PDT by JonPreston (Q: Never have so many, been so wrong, so often)
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To: Conserv

If only Justin Trudeau could call a snap election for us so we could avoid all the crap that will be enacted in the next 15 months.


7 posted on 09/21/2021 12:03:53 PM PDT by ChronicMA
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To: Conserv

The Soros plants and doomer crowd will be along shortly to try to convince people not to vote.

No one is doing more damage to conservatives than these morons.


8 posted on 09/21/2021 12:04:09 PM PDT by TexasGurl24
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To: Conserv
The 2022 election is over 13 months away, an eternity in politics. Republicans need to play like they are 10 points behind. Also, a RINO purge is mandatory and ballot reforms to lessen fraud are desperately needed, especially in blue zones in red and purple states.
9 posted on 09/21/2021 12:04:34 PM PDT by Wallace T.
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To: Conserv

I agree. Take nothing for granted.


10 posted on 09/21/2021 12:04:53 PM PDT by hsmomx3
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To: Conserv

After getting away with the Steal, Democrats will be more brazen than ever.


11 posted on 09/21/2021 12:05:19 PM PDT by HandBasketHell
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To: cdcdawg

The 2018 mid term was thrown and the 2020 election was fraudulent.


12 posted on 09/21/2021 12:06:51 PM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn...)
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To: Conserv

The people who count the ballots are going to let the Democrats lose? Really? Really?


13 posted on 09/21/2021 12:07:40 PM PDT by farming pharmer (fork you :(){ :|:& };:)
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To: Conserv

I’ll send you my votes. Use them as you see fit.


14 posted on 09/21/2021 12:08:06 PM PDT by Cboldt
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To: Conserv
The Senate, at 50-50, is also in play for Republicans to recapture, Zogby and other analysts say.

That would be nice, especially if they elect a new majority leader.

15 posted on 09/21/2021 12:08:14 PM PDT by 1Old Pro (Let's make crime illegal again!)
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To: Conserv
Pollster Scott Rasmussen, known for his accurate surveys, said that Trump’s voters are keyed up, noting that 75 percent of them are “very motivated” to cast ballots.

I suppose that's good and needed to overcome 50% increase in Dem turnout due to ballot harvesting.

16 posted on 09/21/2021 12:10:33 PM PDT by 1Old Pro (Let's make crime illegal again!)
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To: JonPreston

Biden’s approval average is 46.3......

and that includes the Fox News poll(which is always WRONG).

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president-biden-job-approval-7320.html

the direction of the country average is....

Right Direction 30.2

Wrong Track 60.8

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/direction_of_country-902.html


17 posted on 09/21/2021 12:12:23 PM PDT by Conserv
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To: Zathras

I agree. This will be an all hands on deck election for the our side and a lot of moderate are not happy by the insane swing left and the stunning general incompetence.


18 posted on 09/21/2021 12:12:46 PM PDT by BiglyCommentary
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To: Conserv

Has anyone asked the dead about this?


19 posted on 09/21/2021 12:14:50 PM PDT by Pilgrim's Progress (http://www.baptistbiblebelievers.com/BYTOPICS/tabid/335/Default.aspx D)
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To: Conserv

This will play out in state elections also. That is need to get them to start/finish cleaning up the elections in time for 2024 - “The Return of the King”, hat tip to LOR :)


20 posted on 09/21/2021 12:14:57 PM PDT by BiglyCommentary
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