Posted on 09/08/2021 12:15:57 PM PDT by nickcarraway
Two separate polls of the Gavin Newsom recall election show the governor opening up large leads in the final days of the campaign.
The first, from Survey USA and the San Diego Union-Tribune, shows 51% of respondents voting "no" on the recall ballot's first question (Shall Gavin Newsom be recalled?), with 43% voting "yes" and 6% undecided. A separate poll from the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) showed Newsom leading question one by an even wider 58% to 39% margin — a 19 percentage-point lead that appears seemingly insurmountable.
Advertisement Of course, polls — especially ones from 2016 and beyond — that show Democrats with comfortable leads have not always been accurate. The 2020 presidential election featured a polling miss as large as the 2016 miss, and a great deal has been written on why polls seem to consistently undersample conservative voters.
Rather than enter a discussion around "shy" Trump/recall voters, response rates in the work-from-home era or weighting by education, perhaps the best way to determine the reliability of the Newsom recall polls is by seeing how well Survey USA and PPIC performed in California's last statewide election — which was less than a year ago with pollsters working under the same COVID-19 related constraints.
Below is a table showing numbers from Survey USA's final poll for the 2020 general election compared with actual results. Included are the results of four races: 1. The presidential race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, 2. California's Proposition 15 (raising property taxes on commercial and industrial properties), 3. California's Proposition 16 (lifting a ban on affirmative action) and 4. California's Proposition 22 (granting app-based transportation and delivery companies an exception to a state labor law by classifying drivers as independent contractors rather than employees).
The "conservative" side for the three ballot measures are "no" on Prop. 15, "no" on Prop. 16 and "yes" on Prop. 22. Because a recall election is a special election with lower-than-expected turnout, looking at past polling on ballot measures may be more useful than polling on big-ticket, top-of-ballot races like the presidential election.
Survey USA logged some massive misses on Prop. 15 and Prop. 16, largely explained by the large portion of respondents who said they were undecided. On Prop. 15, Survey USA found 49% of respondents voting "yes," 21% voting "no" and a whopping 30% saying they were undecided. In the end, 52% of Californians voted "no" and 48% voted "yes," so unless every single undecided voter decided to vote "no" at the last second, this constitutes a major miss.
For Prop. 16, Survey USA's polling found 40% of respondents voting "yes," 26% voting "no" and 34% undecided. The final result was 57% voting "no" and 43% voting "yes." Survey USA's polling for Prop. 22, on the other hand, was fairly accurate, predicting a win of 14 percentage points (Prop. 22 passed by 17 percentage points). If we work under the assumption that Survey USA's undecided voters consistently seem to end up taking the "conservative" side, then the recall could be a nail-biter, as Survey USA's final recall survey shows 51% opposing the recall, 43% in support and 6% undecided.
PPIC fared better than Survey USA in 2020 — but still missed on Prop. 15 and did not ask respondents about Prop. 22.
If we take PPIC's worst miss from 2020 (Prop. 15) and assume a similar eight-percentage-point miss in the recall, Newsom would still survive by 11 percentage points, as PPIC's final recall poll shows Newsom leading by 19.
Polls from earlier in the summer attempted to weight by how likely a voter is to actually cast a ballot, as Republicans have been more enthusiastic about the recall than Democrats. More recent polls show the enthusiasm gap shrinking, and given the makeup of California's electorate (47% Democratic, 24% Republican, 23% nonaffiliated, 6% other), that's very good news for Newsom.
Additional polling, including from the Berkeley Institute of Government Studies, is expected ahead of the Sept. 14 recall election.
When polls show an easy win, that is usually when to expect cheating. So when they do cheat and win, they can say: See the polls were right!
That is why polls showed Biden winning all the time. Its a CYA strategy when you cheat.
Three words:
Dominion.
Voting.
Systems.
It does not matter, elections in california always have a pre determined outcome. Between colorado and california, these voting systems are the most rigged in the country.
this is a set up for a narrative in case gavin newsome loses. then the democrats will be able to say that the election was stolen. they’ll then set up a recount in which case they would win.
They have NEVER forgotten that since Al Gore.
This election will be more rigged than the 2020 national election.
If he is recalled, it will be because he lost by at least 2/3 of the legitimate vote.
We will see, but I’m sure that guy caught with hundreds of absentee ballots in the 7-11 parking lot was just a fluke... (rolling eyes)
Of course ‘elections’ are a thing of the past…it’s installation by rat fraud…
No, the polls are being cooked to cover for the steal..
they learned with Trump the polling needs to show a blow out.
doesn’t matter if it keeps dem voters home. They don’t need them to actually vote anyways.
Newsom is getting a late “stiff’ lead from the moribund and deceased electorate.
Given the demographics of California?
I wouldn’t disregard them. At the very least, the polls provide cover for a steal. But given Californians, they might actually be correct.
I agree that the polls may be designed to discourage the recall effort, but recalls are a different animal than normal voting.
The recall folks are highly motivated and will vote, and the anti-recall folks are playing defense defending the status quo.
So, on balance polls favoring Newsom are good news for the recall folks.
The problem is the cheating, gotta figure a million fake votes are ready if needed in the middle of the night.
What do our friends from California have to say about this? Are you getting a sense that the recall will be successful?
Unfortunately you are right.
The last few elections have not been shining moments for political polling. But on the other hand this is California and Elder is a conservative Republican, so a Newsom win wouldn’t be surprising at all.
And Ballot Harvesting
And Democrat vote counters
And that magic ballot printing press
And they have perfected the Big Steal
And there is no way Californians will vote for a conservative and especially a Black Conservative
Naa, Newsom retains his throne by a landslide
It doesn’t matter. I am sure they have already counted the votes.
He only “wins” based on fraud..and based on idiots in this state who are more afraid of a Republican being in office than looking out their window and seeing crack heads screaming their heads off and pooping on the sidewalk..that is what is a lost cause about this state..you have too many idiots who get freebies from the Govt, despise Republicans (Thus the “Republican recall” BS) they hate Republicans more than what they see going on in this state..and if it were in the bag for NewSCUM he wouldn’t be calling on Heels Harris and Dementia Joe to come save him
Democrat
Vote
Harvesting
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