Posted on 09/08/2021 9:39:17 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
There was an absolute shocker in today's JOLTs report.
While consensus was expecting the BLS to report a print of 10MM in July job openings, nobody - not even the most optimistic whispers - was prepared for the shocking 10.934 million job openings that hit the tape at 10am ET sharp. This unprecedented number of job openings was made possible as more than 4.2 million openings were added in the past 7 months, with every single month of 2021 seeing an increase in job openings, the longest such stretch in history.
Looking at the details, the increase in job openings was driven by a number of industries, with the largest increases in health care and social assistance (+294,000); finance and insurance (+116,000); and accommodation and food services (+115,000).
The record number of job openings stands out in stark contrast against the countless Americans who are still collecting various pandemic emergency unemployment claims, which in the latest week was just above 12 million.
But the biggest shocker is that while we were expecting the BLS to report that there were some 1.7MM more job openings than unemployed workers, a testament to just how broken, supply constrained and/or overheating the US job market is, the actual number meant that there were a record 2.232 million more job openings (10.934MM) compared to the total number of unemployed people which as of August was 8.384 million.
Obviously, with (way) more job openings than unemployed workers, this meant that in June there were again far less than 1 unemployed workers (0.7959 to be exact) for every job opening, down from 0.94 in June, and from a record 4.6 at the peak crisis moment last April.
Unlike last month when hiring hit a near record 6.8 million, in August some of the job openings came at the expense of a slowdown in hiring: in August the BLS reported that hiring dropped by a modest 160K to 6.667 million, as hires decreased in retail trade (-277,000), durable goods manufacturing (-41,000), and educational services (-23,000) while the number of hires increased in state and local government education (+33,000) and in federal government (+21,000).
Finally, and in a sign that the overheating in the labor market appears is nowhere close to ending, in July the level of quits - or people leaving their job voluntarily due to better prospects elsewhere - posted rose again, up by 103K and hitting the second highest on record at 3.977 million, just below the all time high of 3.992 million in April. The number of quits increased in wholesale trade (+34,000) and in state and local government education (+14,000). Quits decreased in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (-25,000) and in federal government (-5,000).
While the latest JOLTS data validates skepticism about "transitory" inflation, as the insufficient pool of labor is obviously inflationary if it continues and will lead to mare wage hikes, there is one caveat: with all emergency unemployment benefits officially expiring this week, it is likely that many of those job openings will be filled as millions of people currently receiving government welfare have to rejoin the labor force leading to a sharp drop in job openings, assuming of course that the mu covid vadiant (now that the receding delta variant is no longer scary enough) won't shut down the economy again in the coming weeks.
trump’s fault
Of course it begs the question. Why should I hire anyone who was too lazy to work for the last year and a half?
But I can’t entirely fault people for not wanting to work in Mask Mandate Land. Eliminate that idiocy and we’ll see how the stats change.
Flimsey Grahamnesty and the rest of the Bush League Republicans want to import more cheap labor.
I saw an interview with a young unemployed guy over the weekend who was lamenting the end of the enhanced benefits.
He said he did not want to go back to work and risk getting Covid.
I thought to myself, he apparently doesn’t mind other people risking it in order to make sure he is fed and receives whatever crap he orders from Amazon.
These “lazy” folks have two attributes that make them strong candidates:
—They are good at math. They figured out they made more money not working than working.
—They understood marginal utility. They understood that leisure time has a value. That will help them understand their customers.
A lot of that is what economists call structural unemployment: unemployment that is the result of a mismatch between the kills the open jobs call for and the supply of labor skills available. There are no quick fixes for that kind of unemployment. It would help if schools actually taught something useful instead of how to riot and tear down statues.
I am fortunate to be able to choose a job at any place willing to hire me but I will not work at any place that requires me to wear a mask for the hours I help them make money.
“I’m afraid of going back to work because of Covid.” Beyond what you said, that excuse is so weak and transparent. Are you similarly fearful of earning a living if you might catch the flu or some other illness? Just a transparent smokescreen.
If some of these people had been working for the last year and a half they could have on the job training, which is sufficient for most positions.
That being said it was a bad idea to pay people not to work. Half of any job’s requirement is to show up on time and work for eight hours. If someone hasn’t done this in going on eighteen months that simple habit has been lost—momentum or lack thereof is the key.
and when the loafers have to go back to work, it’ll be a the biden claiming credit drop in UI...
That’s putting a spin on it. I’d advise anyone who is now looking for a Job to explain that on their resume.
It might just work!
At this point employers are so desperate they are probably ready to give anybody a chance...
;-)
I’ll give you odds the highest percentage of people who never missed a day of work through this scamdemic are the vaxx resisters. When these people are forced out of their jobs due to their noncompliance, what then?
Mention this to a lib, and they’ll tell you that NONE of those jobs “pay a living wage, so people are better off not taking them”.
If this were true…. Why am I not seeing REAL “help wanted” ads all over the place???
Oh yeah, there’s some out there, but they’re spam.
And still, I saw one for a JANITOR the other day.. they want FIVE years experience and a Bachelors degree..
I’m not convinced there are all these jobs laying around out there..
Don’t worry the Afghanis are here and the Southern illegals.
“Of course it begs the question. Why should I hire anyone who was too lazy to work for the last year and a half?”
You shouldn’t.
And you can bet down the road when it comes time to cut employees, they’ll be the first to get cut.
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