https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9935385/AstraZeneca-vaccine-best-keeping-people-hospital-just-1-52-cent-admitted.html
Posted on 09/06/2021 7:49:43 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
The number of new COVID-19 cases and deaths in India has dropped dramatically since a second wave of the virus peaked in May.
First the Alpha and then the Delta variant — which was first detected in India and is now causing strife elsewhere in the world — ravaged the country.
But the seven-day average of daily reported cases this week is just a tenth of the 400,000 recorded during the peak.
Reported deaths are down, too, with an average of fewer than 500 per day, down from more than 4,000 per day.
According to health authorities, more than 439,000 people in India have now died with the virus.
The relatively stable numbers, which lasted throughout August, prompted the World Health Organization's chief scientist to suggest India may have reached a state of "endemicity".
That is, it may be endemic or constantly present in a particular place.
So how did they get there and is the worst of the pandemic over for India?
In May, Delhi's health system was completely overwhelmed, with medical oxygen supplies exhausted, leading to distressing images of makeshift outdoor crematoriums.
This week, less than 2 per cent of Delhi's COVID-19 beds were occupied.
Business has picked back up and schools are reopening in some states.
Soumyadeep Bhaumik, from the George Institute India in New Delhi, said the health system was now "functioning normally" and focusing on vaccination.
However, he said, life was not back to a pre-COVID normal.
Cases were low across most of India but there had been a surge in Kerala in the past few days, he said.
"There is no 'lockdown' now but movement restrictions appropriate to the transmission are now being implemented in different states in India," he told the ABC.
"Kerala has more restrictions now because cases are increasing, but other states, which have low cases, have fewer."
While India's federal government did not implement a nationwide lockdown during the second wave, by mid-May almost all of India's 36 states and territories had instituted full or partial lockdowns.
Other countries such as the UK, the Netherlands and Israel saw sharp declines in cases as a consequence of high vaccination rates and high infection levels.
In India, only about 10 per cent of the population are fully vaccinated, while about 36 per cent of people have had at least one shot.
However, a serology survey conducted in June and July indicated two out of three people in India had COVID-19 antibodies.
"The massive community spread in COVID-19 in the second wave earlier this year meant a lot of people were exposed — symptomatic or otherwise," Dr Bhaumik said.
"It also created awareness about the need to wear masks, avoiding crowds et cetera."
University of Cambridge researcher Ankur Mutreja told the ABC the combination of the state lockdowns and the increase in natural immunity combined to flatten the curve.
"While lockdowns hammer the curve directly, natural exposure during leaky lockdowns facilitates that hammering," Dr Mutreja said.
He said the high rate of antibodies from exposure was helping to keep a lid on the situation for the moment.
"Vaccination rates have also increased massively in India since the second wave, with more than 10 million doses being administered each day for the last few days," he said.
AAP fact checked the claim and found it was baseless.
"There is no evidence that new guidance on the use of ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine led to a reduction in COVID-19 cases in India," they found.
"In fact, hydroxychloroquine was reported to be in widespread use well prior to the country's second-wave outbreak."
Experts — including the ivermectin's manufacturers — have repeatedly said there was no evidence the drugs were effective in treating COVID-19.
"We may be entering some kind of stage of endemicity, where there is low-level transmission or moderate-level transmission going on but we are not seeing the kinds of exponential growth and peaks that we saw a few months ago," Dr Swaminathan said.
India would continue to have "ups and downs in different parts of the country" in areas that were less affected in the first and second waves or with lower levels of vaccine coverage, she said.
That's why Kerala, which was less affected during the second wave, was experiencing a surge now, she said.
David Anderson, from the Burnet Institute in Melbourne, said "endemic" normally just meant that a disease was always present in a population.
"That means that if you have a susceptible population, whether they're unvaccinated or they haven't been infected previously, it can find them and infect them," he said.
He said whether an endemic virus could be managed well enough to prevent an unacceptable loss of life was another question.
He said he didn't believe having two-thirds of the population vaccinated or with antibodies from COVID-19 infections was enough to prevent exponential growth.
Either more people had been exposed to the virus than the serology surveys indicated or the impact of the virus now was being under-reported, or both, he said.
"I can't help but think that in India, they must still be having quite high rates of infection, but people are just not seeking care to the same degree," he said.
The experts contacted by the ABC agreed that India's relative respite from COVID-19 was probably only temporary and a third wave was on its way.
When it will arrive and how severe it will be is up for debate.
Dr Mutreja said vaccination rates had "increased massively" since the second wave, with more than 10 million doses being administered each day for the last few days, but another wave was "imminent".
He said how big it would be depended on how quickly the Delta variant evolved into a "more capable escape variant", the speed of India's vaccination campaign and how effective the vaccines were against the next variant.
Rajib Dasgupta, chair of Jawaharlal Nehru University's Centre of Social Medicine and Community Health, agreed that the combination of increasing vaccination coverage and high levels of immunity acquired through infections was protecting much of the population.
But the emergence or importation of any new variant could potentially lead to new surges, he said.
"Forecasting by modellers indicates a third wave beginning in August and peaking at 100,000 to 150,000 infections a day by October," Dr Dasgupta wrote in an article for The Conversation.
"An alternative projection expects the peak in cases going until November."
Dr Bhaumik said the idea was always to flatten the surges and ensure they were smaller and less deadly each time — and try make the time between the surges as long as possible.
He said it was now "abundantly clear" that COVID-19 was here to stay globally for at least the near future.
"Strategies which hinge on vaccine coverage-related removal of 'lockdown' is not really helpful as variants will keep on rising globally and eventually spread," he said.
"No country can remain an island closed to international travel for years altogether in a global world.
"Graded public health response is the way forward and we have to learn to be pragmatic in living with COVID-19."
Endless sars 2 shots.
it just went away. ivermectin had nothing to do with it
An appropriate jab against two Pacific rim nations and one U.S. State.
RE: ivermectin had nothing to do with it
If you read the article, that’s essentially what it says.
“RE: ivermectin had nothing to do with it
If you read the article, that’s essentially what it says.”
Yes, but the article is bullshit.
AAP fact checked the claim and found it was baseless.
They would. Just like they planned to.
exactly the kind of misinformation about ivermectin you can expect from taxpayer-funded ABC.
today they were at it again, with radio bulletins including item about same phony “medical” body warning against using ivermectin - it’s for horses - and ABC inserting a line about those taking it being hospitalised. don’t expect ABC to admit they’ve been pushing that FakeNews story for the past few days, and apologise. they can always claim they haven’t seen the correction!
evil. ABC should be shut down. Americans would be shocked if they knew how many radio & tv stations they have in each city, plus all their website propaganda, podcasts, etc etc. all paid for by the taxpayers!
Who/what is AAP?
“Cases were low across most of India but there had been a surge in Kerala in the past few days, he said.”
Kerala is about 3% of India’s population but accounts for about 75% of India’s cases. Oh yea, Kerala is the one state that doesn’t use Ivermectin (almost forgot).
India used AstraZeneca... The best vaccine. Israel used Pfizer... The worst vaccine.
RE: India used AstraZeneca... The best vaccine.
So, why is AstraZeneca not given EUA here in the USA?
I believe it is the American Academy of Pediatrics. But I could be mistaken.
The authorities in India supposedly say different. In fact they are suing WHO for lying about Ivermectin, the last I heard.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9935385/AstraZeneca-vaccine-best-keeping-people-hospital-just-1-52-cent-admitted.html
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