[DoodleBob]

Thanks for the feedback. The use of polynomial vs linear was based on studies of VE over time I read, that showed a non-linear pattern, primarily of high VE early then a meaningful decay as time from the shot moves along. I don't have the links handy but I can provide them later.

On the math, I need to go check my Excel calculation - thanks for the validation (which is why I put this kind of stuff out there...FR peer review).

As for deaths, I'm simply pointing out that while the vaccine does what it's stated is it's intent - protect against contracting the virus - it doesn't seem to protect against dying from the virus vs placebo. And that's ok, insofar as that's not what it was designed to do. But many promoters of the shot make that claim...I'm simply saying that wasn't the case here.

Off to work. More later. Thanks for the review.

[DoodleBob]

The error in Excel was the reversal of the negative sign. Thanks again. This makes the modeled VE=O point at ten months plus. The non-asymptotic assumption seems reasonable given -Table 2.