Surprise dip in UK COVID cases baffles researchers

Nature ^ | August 3, 2021 | Phillip Ball

[House Atreides]

Daily recorded infections have more than halved since mid-July. Few researchers anticipated such a sharp decline, and they are now struggling to interpret it.

Scientists are scratching their heads over the precipitous decline in daily COVID-19 infections in the United Kingdom following their rapid rise earlier in the year. Officially recorded new cases more than halved in just two weeks: from a high of 54,674 on 17 July to 22,287 on 2 August.

“Nobody really knows what’s going on,” says epidemiologist John Edmunds at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM). In particular, it’s not clear whether this sudden trend indicates that the peak of the third wave has passed, or whether it is a blip caused by complex social factors.

The spread of the more-infectious Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 in the United Kingdom seemed, despite the country’s successful vaccination roll-out, to be creating a dangerous crisis. Exponential growth in infections since June led to predictions of as many as 100,000 new cases being reported daily, and fears that the National Health Service (NHS) could be overwhelmed by hospitalizations. In such a climate, many scientists felt that the government’s full relaxation of mitigating restrictions in England, such as mask wearing and the closure of nightclubs and other venues, on 19 July was reckless.

It is still too early to know what effect the relaxation will have, given that the data on new cases and hospitalizations have a lag of around two weeks. Few public-health experts, however, anticipated the recent sharp drop — and they are struggling to interpret it.

Not herd immunity

One thing it doesn’t mean, says Edmunds, is that the United Kingdom has built up enough population immunity through vaccination and natural infection to stop the virus spreading. ….. continues

[House Atreides]

Excerpt is limited to 300 words. The article goes on to explain why they think it’s NOT herd immunity that is causing the drop in new cases.

I don’t know but I think they’re on the cusp of herd immunity. I guess time will tell.

[Jeff Chandler]

“Yeah, when we uh, when we released this new variant, we were really hoping it would strike the final death blow to Western Civilization, but as you can see, that darn bug just wasn’t up to the task.

[Jeff Chandler]

“

[JennysCool]

Internal polling must be showing COVID has become a loser for the Left. When even the low-info rabble are getting a little suspicious, it’s time to come up with something else.

[House Atreides]

It sure seemed, at least temporarily, to run its course quickly. I’m thinking they’re nearing herd immunity (the simplest explanation, IMHO) but the writers are trying to pose other explanations.

[MinorityRepublican]

Delta is very contagious and Britain is a small island so there you go.

[JennysCool]

I’m thinking they’re nearing herd immunity (the simplest explanation, IMHO) but the writers are trying to pose other explanations.

The easiest explanation is that the Leftist WHO, the Leftist CDC, and the Leftist media have decided to announce there is a "surprise dip" in COVID cases, because virus porn has reached an over-saturation level not seen since the Bee Gees at the end of the disco era.

[Gene Eric]

So many complex factors — the data will modulate.

It’s an informational Hell-hole.

[Mr Radical]

“Nobody really knows what’s going on.”
Quite refreshing to get an honest admission.

My fourpennyworth, from here in the UK, is that most of the population started to ignore the rules 10-14 days ahead of 'freedom day' when the restrictions were officially lifted on 19 July;
More importantly, most schools broke up for their summer recess around the end of June - and anyone who walked past a school playground up til then would have realised that in all practical terms there had been ZERO social distancing for junior kids at play.

[House Atreides]

Enjoy your freedom over there. Our overlords are trying to figure out how to keep the oppressive measures in place and reestablish some that had expired.

[Mr Radical]

The political hot potatoe here at the moment is the “Vaccine Passport”. There are many in power who would like to see it made compulsory for all sorts of purposes.

[I raised the end of school term because this would seem to me the most likely reason for a dip in cases.]

FRegards

[ransomnote]

Surprise dip in UK COVID cases baffles researchers
Nature ^ | August 3, 2021 | Phillip Ball

"One thing it doesn’t mean, says Edmunds, is that the United Kingdom has built up enough population immunity through vaccination and natural infection to stop the virus spreading. ….. continues"

Cutting the infection rate in half is proof that we are never going to reach herd immunity so we’ll need vaccine passports and boosters.

100% of the deaths in VAERS occurred in the unvaccinated.

Subjecting those who don't volunteer to be 'vaccinated' to social shaming, blame, ostracization, threats, isolation, selective masking, loss of employment, etc are proof we're all in this together.

The fact that 80% of deaths, strokes, heart attacks, anaphylaxis, blood clots, paralysis reported following 'vaccination' occur within the first 2 hours proves they are random events and not related to the 'vaccine'.

Those collapsing in in seizure or deathwithin minutes of injection at nursing homes, walk-in clinics or drive-ups are proof that they 'jab' is safe and effective.

If you have serious co-morbidities which already tax your body's ability to sustain itself, it's wise to get experimental injections because trillions of spike proteins will support your immune system.

Those caught in endless seizures following ‘vaccination’ are glad they got the ‘shot.’

We're all tired of daily reminders, warnings, commercials and incentives from the CDC, Fauci, the FDA and the NIH, as well as our doctors, nurses, churches, schools, social organizations and terrified family members to make sure we are getting adequate Vitamin D3 and Vitamin C.

Safe, free, and effective Vitamin D3 and C supplements are dispensed for free and well-funded campaigns designed to reduce risk through nutrition are everywhere.

The CDC is careful to provide information about the risks of ADE, publicize data from VAERS and V-safe in easy-to-read formats, to inform pregnant women and those with comorbidities that their conditions were not part of ‘vaccine trials’, to educate the public that Pfizer/Moderna/J&J stated in FDA filings no data regarding vaccine impacts on infection and spread was available etc.

I trust the CDC/FDA and Fauci et. al. with my life, and the lives of every American.

Masks, quarantines and all other unilateral decisions made by the CDC flattened the curve in 2 weeks and stopped the plandemic.

Medical research shows shopping in Target is medically safer than shopping in Macy’s.

'The science is settled', and we have evidence that shopping for necessities in Home Depot is safer than shopping for plant seeds, and all other non-essentials, in Hope Depot.

Anthony Fauci was lying when he said in January of 2020 that asymptomatic spreaders do not drive pandemics, that they never have and never will.

When asked if Covid vaccines were FDA approved, Anthony Fauci knew people would accurately translate his 'Yes,' to mean 'No.'

Someone with the training and experience of Anthony Fauci can not be expected to know the difference between ‘FDA Approved’ and ‘Emergency Use Authorization.’

'Breakthrough' Covid cases cannot be evidence of the Antibody Dependent Enhancement (ADE) documented in 20 years of researching the vaccine technology used to create the Covid ‘vaccines’.

Decades of safe, well-tolerated use around the world, as well as dramatic success treating, proves that FDA approved drugs like Ivermectin and HCQ/AZ are dangerous and don't work.

It’s better to take zero medications than take Ivermectin/HCQ/AZ because they aren’t as effective as other unavailable drugs.

Those who recovered after taking HCQ/Az and/or Ivermectin will regret it the rest of their lives.

There are more records of deaths, strokes, cardiac events, neurological damage etc. following each dose of Ivermectin and the HCQ/AZ combination than there are those following Covid 'shots'.

Creating a separate V-Safe database for Covid vaccinination data, making it only accessible to CDC staff, and creating a convenient, free phone app for patients to report their own adverse events offered superior transparency to physicians, medical researchers, and the tax paying public.

V-Safe, the user friendly, covenient phone app given to the vaccinated, is the most accurate way for the CDC to receive adverse events reports directly from patients who died, were paralyzed, acquired convulsions or were otherwise incapacitated following vaccination.

Given the critical nature of introducing a new experimental vaccine, it's important not to give physicians the V-Safe phone app to conveiently report adverse events experienced by patients, particularly those who died, were paralyzed, acquired convulsions or were otherwise incapacitated following vaccination.

V-Safe and VAERS are 'passive' database systems which collect potentially life-saving information from those who volunteer to provide it, just like the vaccine passport databases and compliance mandates that will be announced.

Spreading Covid vaccine adverse event data out over two or more databases, some of which are unavailable to the public (V-Safe, CMS) is a standard database management technique which provides superior data reliability, maintenance, and accessibility.

When the CDC/NIH declared an unprecedented public emergency, and ancitipated vaccines would take a mimum of 18 months to develop, they had to prohibit the standard practice of allowing physicians to write off-label prescriptions for 3 drugs (Ivermectin, HCQ, AZ) in order to save as many lives as possible.

Offering sick or dying patients the 'right to try' Iver/HCQ/AZ or over-the-counter NAC would be a profound violation of medical ethics.

The differences in the traditional processes required for vaccines to apply for FDA approval (12 years of exacting research and long-term testing) and Emergency Use Authorization are technicalities unimportant to public health.

There should only be one medical opinion to 'rule them all' and it must come from the CDC, because it has its own 501c3 and 'donors' like (largest donor) Bill Gates, George Soros, Pfizer and other interested parties have been contributing funds and decision making ‘guidance’ since 1992.

Censorship breeds the sturdiest, most comprehensive and medically sound practices/protocols, particularly in a ‘novel’ virus epidemic.

Every time a pandemic breaks out, medical experts in most of Europe, North America, Australia, New Zeeland etc. all their public agencies agree there is only one-medical-opinion-to-rule-them-all.

Doctors offering alternative treatments, opinions, research, medical insights, or otherwise dissenting from the MOAMO (Mother of All Medical Opinions) are only doing so to get rich quick.

Doctors advocating CDC advice and mandates are doing so at risk of losing their medical reputations, license to practice, hospital rights, and capacity to support themselves.

With every epidemic of public concern the CDC, WHO and other public health agencies redefine words like ‘immunity’ ‘vaccine’ ‘asymptomatic’ ‘disinformation’ ‘diagnostic test’ and ‘disobedient,’  for the rest of us, for the MSM, and for implementation at federal, state and local levels as well as in every organization dependent on regulatory decisions, mandates, edicts and public funding.

The market place of medical ideas and practices regarding Covid should be based on vertical and horizontal political, financial and legislative monopolies armed with the capacity to strip others of licensure, income, funding, reputation, hospital rights etc.

It was, and still is, impossible for the FDA to award Iver/HCQ/AZ an Emergency Use Authorization because 1) it's was, and still is, an emergency and 2) no other more effective treatments are available.

No one in the US has been prescribed IVER/HCQ/AZ for other uses (e.g., Lupus) since the FDA/CDC banned their use in Covid patients. 

We'll never have vaccine mandates in America like they are now having in Australia:

https://media.gab.com/system/media_attachments/files/080/812/378/original/34b903284ac000df.mp4

Australia is the first to send mobile task units to anti injection protests to chase, beat, pin down, and forcibly inject-protesters. America will be next (VIDEO)
gab.com ^ | 8/2/2021 | vanity

[Maskot]

Another “surprise”. It’s all in how they work the numbers to keep the fear porn going.

[daniel1212]

This makes as much sense as rising cases in areas that saw low rates of infection.

[usconservative]

I've read several articles that indicate the "Delta variant" is what's called a fast burner.

It comes in hard and fast, infects who it can and the virus burns itself out relatively quickly. We're seeing that in Great Britain today.

I've read several articles & seen a few interviews on the idiot box (TV) that say we're likely to see a surge & peak here within the next two to three weeks, then see a very quick drop-off just like Britain is going through right now.

Perhaps someone who's far more familiar with how these things work here on FR can explain it better than I just did.

[Travis McGee]

[grey_whiskers]

Hi ransomnote,
can you please stop channeling the ClotShot pimps? :-D

[BeauBo]

The article lists some credible factors at play:

- Schools are out
- It’s Summer, and people are outdoors more
- They are just coming back down from the effects of a past Nationwide super-spreader event, the Euro SoccerChampionship.
- They had an unique selective lockdown, with a contact tracing app that had large numbers of targeted people self-isolating.

So there are some good reasons, that it is not purely due to herd immunity, although I (also) think that is clearly a/the major contributor.

The threshold for herd immunity itself, is dependent on multiple variables. What is just good enough (threshold) in one set of ideal conditions (low contact, low density behaviors), would not be quite good enough with worst case variable settings (like a massive multi-day gay orgy in Provincetown).

So even if there is enough immunity in the herd today to reduce replication rates below one, it could pick up enough for another small wave if/when everybody goes back to school and work and partying, and the seasonal conditions support it.

GoldmanSachs analysts who are trying to make objective assessments for investment purposes, anticipate another smaller seasonal wave, after the current big Delta wave subsides.

[Buttons12]

Maybe it’s petering out like the 1918 flu.

[norwaypinesavage]

"One thing it doesn’t mean, says Edmunds, is that the United Kingdom has built up enough population immunity through vaccination and natural infection to stop the virus spreading.....This is exactly the situation faced by, say, climate change"

Au contraire. These so-called 'experts' seem to know little about herd immunity, and even less about climate change, though probably a lot about political correctness. Herd immunity begins whenever the average contagious person fails to pass on the disease to more than one person. The fewer disease resistance prople there are in the 'herd' the faster the disease declines. It's as simple as that.

As long as there are enough disease resistant individuals in the herd, either through vaccines, recoveries, or natural "T" cell resistance, the number of sick will decline. It can soon approach zero if there are few in the herd left to become sick with the disease. A highly contagious variant, such as the Delta, especially because it is less severe, can even more quickly produce disease resistant herds, making the decline happen more quickly. This is particularly true when the so called 'breakthrough cases' will not be severely ill, but will likely develop even stronger disease resistance.