Posted on 07/27/2021 7:14:19 AM PDT by RomanSoldier19
To have any chance of conquering Taiwan, China might need to transport as many as two million troops across the rough 100 miles of the Taiwan Strait and land them under fire at the island’s 14 potential invasion beaches or 10 major ports.
That’s a lot of people—far, far more than the People’s Liberation Army Navy can haul in its 11 new amphibious ships. To transport the bulk of the invasion force, Beijing almost certainly would take up into naval service thousands of civilian ships.
To that end, the Chinese Communist Party has created a legal and bureaucratic framework for taking over control of commercial shipping. Meanwhile, naval engineers have begun modifying key vessels to make them better assault ships.
All that is to say, the vast flotilla that would be both the vehicle for China’s assault on Taiwan—and the biggest target of Taiwanese forces and their allies—is taking shape.
“If the PLA invasion force was a million or more men, then we might expect an armada of thousands or even tens of thousands of ships to deliver them, augmented by thousands of planes and helicopters,” Ian Easton, an analyst with the Project 2049 Institute in Virginia, wrote in a recent report.
The PLAN’s eight modern Type 071 landing docks and three Type 075 big-deck assault ships together can haul around 25,000 troops. A drop in the bucket. To transport the balance of the invasion force, the Chinese navy can take up around 2,000 large commercial vessels crewed by around 650,000 mariners.
(Excerpt) Read more at forbes.com ...
If there was ever a time for China to do it, this is it.
• Biden is senile.
• Biden’s son (and thus Biden) have been bought off by China.
• The VP & first lady (who run the show) are close commies.
• The Democrat party (which runs all 3 branches of government) actually supported Cuba’s communist government over protestors—they too are pro communist.
• American media is in China’s pocket.
• America’s military leadership has degenerated into PC madness.
The stars won’t align for China to take Taiwan like this again for a long time.
Logically, they have no choice but to go for it NOW, or admit they will never recover Taiwan.
Easy enough.
The PRC can put plenty of commandos in Taiwan just by flying them in on regular airline flights.
They would still have to arm them, but the arms could be smuggled in and cached.
The commandos attack the rapid response sites (airfields, etc.) and seize control of port facilities. They only have to hold long enough for ships to offload troops and vehicles. They would also perform decapitating strikes to slow Taiwan’s response.
They don’t really have do any of these things, though. They just have to present a plausible threat, backed by “If we have to conquer you, it will be really, really bad.”
It’s in the CCPs interest to keep fanning the flames of war without actually committing to an invasion of Taiwan. It keeps the populace focused on an external enemy to deflect any even limited criticism of the CCP.
There is also a rather obvious attempt by the CCP, much like any bully, to try and goad Taiwan into attacking. Look at the recent incursion into Taiwan’s airspace by the CCP as the most recent example. If they can provoke Taiwan into responding to one of these incursions, then they can use it as an excuse for invasion claiming Taiwan struck first. I’m convinced by their actions the Taiwanese are not falling for these pathetic attempts to start a war.
With today’s smart munitions it is entirely possible
to put a bomb or missile precisely on the upstream side of a dam.
Also Taiwan is 5X farther away than Normandy, many will
never reach the beach.
Quantity has a quality all of its own - and there is a heck of a lot of concrete in the Three Gorges Dam.
As well, the Taiwanese should be studying the problems of the western and southwestern portions of Red China looking to aggravate ethnic tensions and cause local uprisings. Look at the finances of the party higher ups and track their money. Where do they keep their stash? Is there a way to drain their accounts and make it look like someone else did it?
In Africa, look to cause trouble at the Red economic enterprises - strikes, sabotage, and the like.
It will be before the 2022 elections.
The Taiwanese don’t have the wherewithal to take it out.
Yep - China will go for it on Joe’s watch. They know he’s weak and will do nothing.
To repeat: It’s 1,000 air miles from Taiwan to the 3 Gorges Dam. A subsonic missile attack would put the missile(s) in the air for about AN HOUR AND A HALF. So do you think China may be able to shoot them down since they ONLY have an hour an half to figure it out????
It’s 1,000 air miles from Taiwan to the 3 Gorges Dam. A subsonic missile attack would put the missile(s) in the air for about AN HOUR AND A HALF. So do you think China may be able to shoot them down since they ONLY have an hour an half to figure it out????
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They’re slow, but the advantage of cruise missiles is they fly low to evade radar and they don’t have to fly in a straight trajectory so you can’t anticipate their position.
“I can’t possibly see how an invasion by sea involving hundreds of transport vehicles and millions of troops could be carried out against a modern country armed with contemporary military technology”
Very good point. I don’t think any of the writers of these articles ever studied WWII in the Pacific. Amphibious landings are hard and impossible without air and naval superiority.
Since the 1940s defenses have improved (rockets, subs, drones), while amphibious landing craft remain the slow vulnerable targets they have always been.
True. I’m also thinking a couple dozen of those mammoth Chinese container ships filled with troops just happening to show up off the east coast of Taiwan before war is declared might do the trick. Don’t expect the Chi-Coms to telegraph their assault. It will happen all at once and no one will see it coming.
Both Communist China & Taiwan claim to be the legitimate government of China—all of China—Taiwan and the mainland.
Taiwan’s stubbornness in not declaring itself independent from China has left it in a precarious position.
If China wants to decimate the global economy back to the pre-40's era, take out the fabs.
If only Eisenhower had a military mind like you on his staff.
He never realized that all it took was a few commandos to take down the Nazi costal defenses. If only he had your wisdom D-Day would have been a walk in the park.
If we are talking about a wartime footing, then I would say it would be sure thing that the PLA would be able to shoot down any missile on the way to Three Gorges Dam.
I would be surprised if there aren’t 3-4 HQ-9 batteries around Three Gorges.
Taiwan, like Hong Kong, has been a thorn in the side of the CCP for decades, because it shows how good life could be for the Chinese people—if only they didn’t have the CCP running everything.
The CCP is obsessed with taking back China. The same way a crazy stalker is obsessed with a Hollywood starlet.
The CCP won’t be thinking rationally.
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