Posted on 07/17/2021 6:31:07 PM PDT by Right Wing Vegan
Japan’s White Paper of 2021 is significant in understanding the Chinese approach towards Taiwan and how Japan is shaping its policy to meet the challenges in the region. While Japan had been mentioning Taiwan as a separate country for the last few years, it is the first time that Japan has removed Taiwan from the map of China-indicating a clear shift in its policy of accepting ‘One China’ policy. Important aspects of the White Paper are given in the following paragraphs.
First, the White Paper is focussed on the threats caused by the Chinese aggressiveness in the region- a realistic assessment, which is also the assessment of other neighbours but smaller neighbours do not openly share that keeping in view of the Chinese coercive capabilities. Of late, the Chinese assertion in the South China Sea (SCS) has increased significantly. The encroaching activities into other nations EEZs have multiplied and it is carrying out patrolling in the nine-dash-line regularly to deter other claimants from opposing China.
Japan observes that China has considerably intensified its military activities around Taiwan. According to Japan, the Chinese warplanes intruded into the Taiwanese south-western airspace 380 times last year-averaging about one per day. The paper also lists out the Chinese aircraft-carrier sailing through the Bashi Channel that connects the SCS with the western Pacific Ocean to conduct a military exercise. While highlighting the escalation of the Chinese aggressive activities in the ECS and SCS, Japan stresses the need for paying more attention to the emerging trends of the US-China deteriorating relations as also the approaches of other nations as the stability of the situation around Taiwan is critical for Japan’s security and for the stability of the International Community.
In this context, it may be pointed out that Xi’s centenary speech had projected the ‘Chinese Dream’ that envisages annexation of all the areas it perceives to have lost to the colonial and imperial forces in the past. Taiwan occupies the most prominent space in this. Xi at the centenary speech averred that China was working to accelerate its modernisation programme to develop capabilities to seize Taiwan. Xi declared that China maintains an “unshakeable commitment” to unification with Taiwan.
On the US side, officials assess that China would use force to occupy Taiwan. A top intelligence officer of US Admiral Mike Studeman warned that Chinese military invasion on Taiwan was only a matter of time and not a matter of ‘if’. Describing the US view, he pointed out that the US officials are describing the current warpath with China the same way that Gen. Douglas McArthur described the lead up to World War II.
Japan has aptly analysed that the tensity on Taiwan is on the increase. Analysts, world over view that a conflict between US and China on the Taiwan is likely. They point out that while Xi hopes to unify Taiwan by 2027, the US and others would oppose it. Xi’s stridency in his speech to warn other nations was noticeable. He averred that the Chinese “will never allow anyone to bully, oppress or subjugate China” and that “Anyone who dares try to do that will have their heads bashed bloody against the Great Wall of Steel forged by over 1.4 billion Chinese people.” Japan’s concerns over the Chinese activities in the region that is its life-line is quite natural.
Second, Japan has grave concerns about the Chinese designs on the Senkaku Islands. The paper mentions that China is relentlessly attempting to change the status quo by coercion around the Senkaku Islands, which is a violation of international law. Japan also spells out the defensive strategy that would be adopted in case of invasion from China to its remote islands. This includes quick manoeuvres and deployment of sufficient units to block access and landing of invading forces while ensuring maritime and air superiority. It also envisages offensive operations to retake any part of territory that may be occupied by the invading forces. In this context, the paper underlines the need for cross domain operations and fusion of capabilities in traditional domains- land, sea, and air-with capabilities in new domains-space, cyberspace and electromagnetic spectrum. The Japanese strategy centres around the Miyako Strait. Reports suggest that Japan plans to deploy its two new aircraft carriers as also missiles to block the advance of the Chinese forces. Japan is also trying to buy F-35B stealth aircraft for this purpose.
Third, Japan’s overall strategy to counter the threat emanating from China includes reaching out to a large number of friends and partners besides its treaty ally viz. the US. Japan is seeking cooperation from India, Australia and European nations and supports a free and open Indo-Pacific. It is increasingly participating in military and naval exercises with others in the region.
Fourth, the more important aspect is that Japan appears to have finally shifted its approach towards the ‘One-China’ policy. Crucially, as mentioned earlier, this was the first time that in the White Paper Taiwan is not shown as a part of China. In April, Japanese PM Suga and the US President Biden in a joint statement while stressing the need for peace and stability in the strait, mentioned Taiwan indicating their acceptance of it as a separate country. The Chinese reaction is on predictable lines. China expressed a strong opposition to clear references to the Taiwan situation in Japan’s annual defence White Paper. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian told reporters that ‘the Japanese side has repeatedly directed accusations at China and irrationally criticized its normal defence construction and military activity.’ He said that China was strongly dissatisfied and firmly opposed to Japan’s actions. On the other hand, Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry in response to Japan’s White Paper expressed thanks to Japan for its support.
On the whole, the Japan’s White Paper indicates a change in its approach. The message is clear to China that any attempt to annex Taiwan would be opposed by Japan and that it could join other nations to oppose it. Another message is that it is not prepared to accept Taiwan as a part of China. The fact is that Taiwan has a separate constitution and governance system and cannot be considered as a part of China. Going by history, it can be said that this is the real China and the mainland China was occupied by the rebel forces led by CCP after a civil war. The moot question is if we can have two Koreas and earlier two German nations, why we cannot have two Chinas. The International Community appears to be moving to accept the ground realities.
On the possibility of a conflict, while rhetoric has increased on both sides (China and the US), both would try to avoid it. The Chinese advantages get nullified, if Japan also joins others to check the Chinese advance because of its geographical location. Japan’s efforts to enhance its capabilities would add to the strength of US. China would weigh this heavily before making any move. However, it may be mentioned that Xi has projected ‘re-unification’ as an objective to be achieved before 2027 and would face an embarrassing situation if he fails in his mission. One hopes that Xi would realise the emerging trends and would not commit the mistake of initiating a war. For this he should reduce the stridency in his speeches by making a realistic assessment.
Repeat of early 1900’s. Japan is still run by a sort of Japanese Neo-conservative group that has never given up on hegemony over Asia. As a US puppet I mean ally it could easily drag US Neo-liberals into WW3 with the CCP.
China was once an ally long ago, they paid in blood for that support. Then, with the aid of Leftists in our own government, we stabbed them in the back and enabled the Communists to take power.
It is a black stain on our national honor.
It is ironic that the “real” Chinese may have to depend on a former brutal invader and an untrustworthy ally to save them.
“ It can be said that (Taiwan) is the real China and the mainland China was occupied by the rebel forces led by CCP after a civil war. “
Indeed. Mainland China is in fact occupied China and mainland Chinese are prisoners of occupation. Maybe some day Taiwan will help liberate China from its occupiers and send the CCP into the ash heap of history.
Jaiwan, USA
Mark it down, I said it first :)
There are a lot of people, myself included, who feel that China has been waging war on the USA for some time. And doing it quite effectively.
Neo-liberals or not, there is going to come a day of reckoning for one of us someday.
A reckoning for the US allowing itself to be conquered from within without firing a shot.
Or a reckoning for them when they overplay their hand and the world sees them for what they are.
But there will be a reckoning someday.
Japan is afraid of payback-Nanking. Going for broke hoping the US will be there for them. Dutarte is thinking the same thing.
” Japan is still run by a sort of Japanese Neo-conservative group “
You got that right . I’ve lived in Japan for 35 years . The Liberal Democratic Party just LOVES to tax tax tax tax !
Japan realizes that China isn’t going to stop at Taiwan.
Might just as well get ready now.
China has never at any time had ownership, occupation, or
any other valid claim to the Island Taiwan exist on.
I agree.
Japan and the Philippines should be thinking those things.
China is a tyrannical country, fat with our money, an industrial base and wealth it did not create but robbed from us in largely a zero-sum transaction (our own fault) and a political base here in the form of the Deep State which it has largely acquired via blackmail or outright payoffs, right up to and including the President of the United States, the entire Democrat party, and large swaths of the Republican Party.
There is a time soon when people around the world may have to choose, side with the USA, or side with China.
The USA has its faults, but we haven’t murdered tens if not hundreds of millions of our own citizens for purely ideological reasons.
Communist China has.
And when they are your master, your life would be worth far less because you would be just another thing that might have to be eliminated if you become inconvenient in any way. (and for a conquered Japanese, it would be slavery or Death. For the Philippines, much the same, IMO)
“Repeat of early 1900’s. Japan is still run by a sort of Japanese Neo-conservative group”
Yup. The Meijin-era “deep state” almost akin to our deep state. My Stanford frat brother teaches English there in a local gakuen’ (high school) and the state dept. Told me one of the biggest reasons why they lost the war against us is because BOTH the army and navy NEVER got along with each other, ergo, did not coordinate. The only time they coordinated was Pearl Harbor.
“Japan realizes that China isn’t going to stop at Taiwan.”
Yup. My cuz’ who is still stationed in Sokor told us multiple times when he was on leave the real reason why they have bases in the pacific is to checkmate the chicoms, nothing else. The troops there wont say it but that’s the unofficial “line”.
I bet India would be all over this too, considering the CCP keeps pushing boundaries with them. Literally.
Any way one looks at it, nearly every nation surrounding China will go for the throat if China goes after Taiwan. We get involved, then the neighbors do too. It’d get ugly fast with the Indian military getting in on it.
We also don’t have over 200 concentration camps torturing and killing millions of people. The lucky ones get to be slaves and perform forced labor to merely survive in that hell hole.
Evil sellout China loving politicians who shunned AMERICA FIRST are so hypocritical that none of them can be trusted.... EVER.
I know that there are people out there who are outraged that someone would suggest that the Communist Chinese released this virus deliberately.
As you referenced with the concentration camps and the treatment of the Uyghurs, not to mention the prisoners they put on ECMO machines to keep them alive as their body parts are harvested.
Soulless, evil people, the Communists.
They murdered tens of millions of their own people for purely ideological reasons. To them, murdering four or five million people with a pathogen for a political goal is not even a speed bump.
I don't think it was released deliberately. I think it was leaked prematurely by accident. I think they meant to release it in 2022 AFTER the Olympics ( or use the Olympics as a spreader by releasing it during the closing ceremony.) By this early release, they screwed themselves with lost revenue from the Olympics, plus they had not developed a vaccine yet.
That may be. But they had plenty of reason to get Donald Trump out of office.
They, and people here in this country of like mind with them. Democrats and many Republicans.
I don’t rule anything out.
I don’t think it matters what the world does. China has decided to seize control. As long as the CCP or other similar type government runs China, they will threaten economies and prepare for war. They will eventually attempt to expand and control and it doesn’t rally matter what anyone else does. They will use any opportunity.
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