Is the author so obtuse that he doesn't even understand the political dynamics at work here?
Donald Trump doesn't kick establishment Republicans around in every poll (in 2016 as well as today) by being a "calm, moderate candidate." He wins by standing up and saying what's on the mind of normal Americans without any regard for who gets offended by it.
If Trump runs and wins in 2024, it will be with the recipe that carried him in 2016: by pointing out that a dysfunctional government run by corrupt politicians hasn't served Americans well. Period.
He’s ahead by 80 points by virtue of being denied in 2020. He can’t come across as vindictive or wrong and petulant of course, and so far seems to be handling that well, but I don’t think anyone will blame the man waiting in the wings for a full four year term.