In 1970, Soviet dissident Andrei Amalrik wrote an essay entitled "Will the Soviet Union Survive Until 1984?" Like a handful of Western experts, Amalrik, although writing in isolation, also saw adverse demographics and ethnic antagonisms as soon to be fatal to the USSR.
And so it was, with the USSR lasting but 72 years. In addition to ethnic fractures and demographic imbalances, endemic corruption and economic mismanagement are also cited prominently in autopsies of the world's first Communist nation. China suffers from similar problems, albeit with her economic success obscuring fundamental weaknesses. Yet the Communist Chinese regime may last little if any longer than its Russian counterpart.
Most notably, China's economy is highly leveraged and based on a model of export led industrialization that make her vulnerable to rising hostility in foreign markets. China's Belt and Road Initiative is meant to remedy that defect by permanently tying key parts of the world to China economically. Yet that grand scheme of predatory lending and infrastructure building is not working well because the terms and Chinese administration of it are so plainly exploitative.
Like the USSR, China's focus on military power makes her a menace. It is hard though to see though what a geographically constrained China can accomplish even with a military advantage. With US backing, powerful neighbors Japan and South Korea cannot be subdued, nor will Viet Nam, India, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Myanmar knuckle under to China.
Plausibly, by force or the threat of force, China may subdue and incorporate Taiwan. Yet even Taiwan's superficially peaceful acquiescence to mainland China will require brutal internal suppression in a long consolidation phase that will prompt mass emigration and civil unrest and embroil China in endless difficulties and bad publicity for many years. On balance, for China, Taiwan may beckon as a prize to be taken but she is indigestible.
And, as demographic and economic experts point out, China's one child policy has led to an aging population and a stagnant working age population that faces the so-called middle income trap in which major economic gains are hard to come by for a rising economy. With corruption rampant and political repression on the rise, wealthy Chinese are eager to get their money, their families, and themselves out of China. When the most successful and prosperous people flee a country, one has good cause to question its long term prospects.
The PRC ain’t the USSR.
It isn’t a loose amalgamation of mutually antagonistic nations forcibly ‘united’ under a corrupt, bloody-handed, bureaucratic empire.
Oh. Wait... Never mind.
So you might be right.
Problem is, the PRC KNOWS it has a demographic issue and is in a “use-it-or-lose-it” mode. If they don’t achieve their ambitions NOW, it ain’t gonna happen in the future.
But you are right; China’s greatest asset was the ability to play the long game and the ‘One Child Policy’ effectively shot that in the head. So Chinese rapaciousness may very well undermine the Belt and Road Initiative. Also, what are they really buying with it? Remember back in eh 80’s when the Japanese were spending so much money in the US that people were worried about them buying us up? I think Michael Criton even wrote a book on it.
I have read elsewhere about people doubting Taiwan’s will to defend itself. I don’t know how true it is, but after HK, I would hope they got a good hard whack from the cluebat.
So things are very much up in the air right now. I wouldn’t count on the PRC’s fiscal weakness and would take them at face value, at least until I found a weakness to exploit.
The worst part is our own weakness; Afghanistan and the ME wore out and demoralized our troops and the current administration is pursuing a Soviet style purge to further weaken the military and make it more politically reliable - probably to use against us. The US is no longer a reliable ally. Australia, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan will have to plan on going it alone; it would be good if they could lure in India, but India is weird and has issues of its own. F’instace Pakistan is awfully friendly with the Chicoms having tried to develop a jet fighter with them.
All I can say is that they need to not count on US, and assume their enemy is as strong as its facade indicates and plan appropriately. It might be time to use asymmetric warfare against the PRC to see if the fiscal weakness, if it exists, can be exploited.