The PRC ain’t the USSR.
It isn’t a loose amalgamation of mutually antagonistic nations forcibly ‘united’ under a corrupt, bloody-handed, bureaucratic empire.
Oh. Wait... Never mind.
So you might be right.
Problem is, the PRC KNOWS it has a demographic issue and is in a “use-it-or-lose-it” mode. If they don’t achieve their ambitions NOW, it ain’t gonna happen in the future.
But you are right; China’s greatest asset was the ability to play the long game and the ‘One Child Policy’ effectively shot that in the head. So Chinese rapaciousness may very well undermine the Belt and Road Initiative. Also, what are they really buying with it? Remember back in eh 80’s when the Japanese were spending so much money in the US that people were worried about them buying us up? I think Michael Criton even wrote a book on it.
I have read elsewhere about people doubting Taiwan’s will to defend itself. I don’t know how true it is, but after HK, I would hope they got a good hard whack from the cluebat.
So things are very much up in the air right now. I wouldn’t count on the PRC’s fiscal weakness and would take them at face value, at least until I found a weakness to exploit.
The worst part is our own weakness; Afghanistan and the ME wore out and demoralized our troops and the current administration is pursuing a Soviet style purge to further weaken the military and make it more politically reliable - probably to use against us. The US is no longer a reliable ally. Australia, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan will have to plan on going it alone; it would be good if they could lure in India, but India is weird and has issues of its own. F’instace Pakistan is awfully friendly with the Chicoms having tried to develop a jet fighter with them.
All I can say is that they need to not count on US, and assume their enemy is as strong as its facade indicates and plan appropriately. It might be time to use asymmetric warfare against the PRC to see if the fiscal weakness, if it exists, can be exploited.
Pakistan is a special case in that its strategic position offers compelling logic in favor of an alliance with China. Both are now moving to gain control over and exploit Afghanistan and to develop military advantages against India.
India, in turn, is beginning to recognize her vulnerability, even to the point of trying to remedy her longstanding deficiencies in armaments. My guess though is that it will take more Chinese bullying before India's politicians give up the endemic corruption that has enfeebled India's military.
As for China herself, her greatest asset against the US and its allies is the leverage that she has gained through predatory commercial practices, spying, and influence operations. On the whole, China prefers to make gains without the expense and risks of direct military action.
In the event, China may prefer bluff and bullying to an open attack on Taiwan. As China knows, a direct attack could trigger a shut out from the world's markets, the loss of much oversea investment wealth, and the US and allied navies sweeping up China's maritime fleet.