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Lumber Prices Are Falling Fast, Turning Hoarders Into Sellers
WSJ ^ | 6-15-21 | Ryan Dezember

Posted on 06/15/2021 7:09:01 PM PDT by dynachrome

click here to read article


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To: ocrp1982

“That said, what I stated holds true.”

Source?


21 posted on 06/15/2021 7:33:33 PM PDT by TexasGator (Z1z)
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To: Cowgirl of Justice

MUST have a fixed price contact when building a home. Cost plus contract = great way to get screwed while the builder abritrages with the customer being the loser.


22 posted on 06/15/2021 7:45:51 PM PDT by Levy78
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To: Jonty30

No problem, as I already have a fence, and thought a new one would be nice. I don’t make a habit of buying stuff at top dollar. If it don’t happen, it don’t happen.☺


23 posted on 06/15/2021 7:47:03 PM PDT by dragnet2 (Diversion and evasion are tools of deceit)
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To: alternatives?

Those prices haven’t budged because they bought in at May prices and they must run through that inventory.


24 posted on 06/15/2021 7:47:23 PM PDT by Levy78
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To: Jonty30

Not anybody who had common sense.

First thing. Do I really need that deck at this time?
Second. If I wait to replace it, where can I get wholesale lumber at low prices.

I wanted to do a couple projects. Dont need to do them now and they can wait till fall, or another year.


25 posted on 06/15/2021 7:47:24 PM PDT by crz
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To: Cowgirl of Justice

I wonder if they’d be just as quick to drop the prices too?


26 posted on 06/15/2021 7:49:33 PM PDT by Bulwyf
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To: dynachrome

Karate schools can now breathe a sigh of relief.


27 posted on 06/15/2021 7:50:17 PM PDT by P.O.E. (Pray for America)
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To: Levy78

You are correct on home construction. It is surprising however that in large commercial some of the best fee limitation and cost savings is for “Cost-plus-a-fee with a Guaranteed Maximum Price. In 47 years and running hundreds of millions in projects, I made some of my biggest profits on lump sum contracts.


28 posted on 06/15/2021 7:55:43 PM PDT by KC Burke (If all the world is a stage, I would like to request my lighting be adjusted.)
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To: dynachrome
Supply and demand works.

The rest is behind a paywall.

You mean Tobin's Q and the Efficient Frontier etc are behind a paywall?

29 posted on 06/15/2021 8:02:28 PM PDT by DoodleBob (Gravity's waiting period is about 9.8 m/s^2)
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To: KC Burke

Same boat here. I ran a family custom home (and spec) biz for a decade a d we made the most money on fixed priced contracts. There’s a premium for predictability and typically had a dozen or so homes going at once and were able to get economies on contacts with subs and fix those prices, etc. You know how more works.


30 posted on 06/15/2021 8:02:55 PM PDT by Levy78
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To: ocrp1982

Sale of our house closes June 25th...whew


31 posted on 06/15/2021 8:04:16 PM PDT by goodnesswins (The issue is never the issue. The issue is always the revolution." -- Saul Alinksy)
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To: dynachrome

More good news I hope the hoarders gag on what they’ve got


32 posted on 06/15/2021 8:05:50 PM PDT by Sequoyah101 (Politicians are only marginally good at one thing, being politicians. Otherwise they are fools.)
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To: Pollard

Come back after you understand microeconomics.


33 posted on 06/15/2021 8:09:02 PM PDT by bigbob
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To: dynachrome

Well, if they can’t get top dollar for hoarded lumber, they can always make it into toilet paper.


34 posted on 06/15/2021 8:10:34 PM PDT by glorgau
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To: TexasGator

“Source?” NYSE. Commodities Market reports.


35 posted on 06/15/2021 8:12:27 PM PDT by ocrp1982 ( Bibicly)
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To: Pollard

It won’t go back to pre covid prices. It will bottom at about $800/1000 board feet. The run up enabled them to establish a new floor price, which is over twice what it started at.


36 posted on 06/15/2021 8:14:46 PM PDT by damper99
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To: dynachrome

7/16 OSB at Lowes is still $52.00 a sheet. It has not come down at all.


37 posted on 06/15/2021 8:15:26 PM PDT by Revel
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To: alternatives?
50 sheets of osb is $2800. You can't get a used truck for that
38 posted on 06/15/2021 8:35:01 PM PDT by vigilante2
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To: Ikeon

Home builders do not shop at Lowes.

They do not have what they use.

They are a DIY supplier.


39 posted on 06/15/2021 8:39:43 PM PDT by Texas Fossil ((Texas is not where you were born, but a Free State of Heart, Mind & Attitude!))
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To: Levy78

My cost plus projects were notable for superior performance in the quality and cost savings. I had a number of projects where the cost savings were so exemplary that I earned my company extra money from a very happy customer. Once I was awarded two new shopping centers during a financial closeout review. I also was audited by a financial team from hard buyer Wal-Mart. They found only $18.60 in Six Million that they did not agree with. It was in their favor and they gave us a complimentary letter and a check for $18.60 on the spot.

With a history like that I negotiated a lot of Fee-Basis work.


40 posted on 06/15/2021 8:40:13 PM PDT by KC Burke (If all the world is a stage, I would like to request my lighting be adjusted.)
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