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COVID-19 vaccine efficacy and effectiveness—the elephant (not) in the room
The Lancet ^

Posted on 05/29/2021 6:59:43 AM PDT by ReaganGeneration2

Approximately 96 COVID-19 vaccines are at various stages of clinical development. At present, we have the interim results of four studies published in scientific journals (on the Pfizer–BioNTech BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine, the Moderna–US National Institutes of Health [NIH] mRNA-1273 vaccine, the AstraZeneca– Oxford ChAdOx1 nCov-19 vaccine, and the Gamaleya GamCovidVac [Sputnik V] vaccine) and three studies through the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) briefing documents (on the Pfizer–BioNTech,6 Moderna–NIH, and Johnson & Johnson [J&J] Ad26. COV2.S vaccines). Furthermore, excerpts of these results have been widely communicated and debated through press releases and media, sometimes in misleading ways. Although attention has focused on vaccine efficacy and comparing the reduction of the number of symptomatic cases, fully understanding the efficacy and effectiveness of vaccines is less straightforward than it might seem. Depending on how the effect size is expressed, a quite different picture might emerge.

(Excerpt) Read more at thelancet.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: covid19; vaccines
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Two-page peer reviewed piece on vaccine efficacy: Relative vs Absolute Risk. Relative Risk is how everyone has erroneously sold these Vaccines’ “efficacy”. Also measures how ineffective the Vaccine has been in Israel.
1 posted on 05/29/2021 6:59:43 AM PDT by ReaganGeneration2
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To: ReaganGeneration2

Peer reviewed? Where are the review comments?


2 posted on 05/29/2021 7:16:12 AM PDT by House Atreides
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To: House Atreides

Pieces published in medical journals are peer reviewed and approved before publication. That’s how it worked for hundreds of years, and how it still works, believe it or not.

No online comments section required.


3 posted on 05/29/2021 7:24:11 AM PDT by ReaganGeneration2
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To: ReaganGeneration2

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(21)00069-0/fulltext


4 posted on 05/29/2021 7:26:11 AM PDT by Jane Long (America, Bless God....blessed be the Nation 🙏🏻🇺🇸)
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To: ReaganGeneration2

>>Also measures how ineffective the Vaccine has been in Israel.

Israel has, or is just about to, dropped all covid related restrictions, has reduced daily peak cases from 10,000 per day in January to just a small handful most recently -

How does this rate as ‘ineffective’?


5 posted on 05/29/2021 7:26:24 AM PDT by qwerty1234
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To: ReaganGeneration2

“…measures how ineffective the Vaccine has been in Israel.”
******************************************************
Really? This is what you gathered from all the smoke being blown?


6 posted on 05/29/2021 7:41:29 AM PDT by House Atreides
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To: qwerty1234

Don’t you believe peer reviewed science? Do you honestly think all these doctors and scientists are lying? Are you one of those QAnon conspiracy theorists?


7 posted on 05/29/2021 7:49:35 AM PDT by Jan_Sobieski (Sanctification)
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To: ReaganGeneration2
As usual they are plugging ARR. Response:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(21)00119-1/fulltext

8 posted on 05/29/2021 7:50:10 AM PDT by palmer (Democracy Dies Six Ways from Sunday)
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To: qwerty1234
Vaccines in Israel are effective. It's hard to separate matural immunity and vaccine derived immunity which is the excuse to use ARR. But RRR shows effectiveness in studies (vaccine versus placebo) and Israel shows, so far, that the practical effect is herd immunity. That could change, jury is not out yet. But it looks promising
9 posted on 05/29/2021 7:52:18 AM PDT by palmer (Democracy Dies Six Ways from Sunday)
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To: House Atreides

Hubby published many peer-reviewed docs in Physics. As I recall, the comments from peers are PRE-publication. At least that’s how it happened then.


10 posted on 05/29/2021 7:53:59 AM PDT by MayflowerMadam (Faith, not fear. Faith, not faintheartedness.)
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To: Jan_Sobieski

Peer-reviewed science?

Like the peer-reviewed science that proves man-made climate change?


11 posted on 05/29/2021 7:55:33 AM PDT by DuncanWaring (The Lord uses the good ones; the bad ones use the Lord.)
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To: Jan_Sobieski
Peer review doesn't preclude responses later: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(21)00119-1/fulltext That response says essentially the ARR is appropriate when individualized. In other words, transmission in Israel is currently so low that many individuals can quite properly say they don't need the vaccine. The effectiveness for their individual case is very low because their chances of getting COVID are very low.
12 posted on 05/29/2021 7:56:30 AM PDT by palmer (Democracy Dies Six Ways from Sunday)
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To: DuncanWaring
Peer reviewed science can always be proven to be wrong, There's nothing magic about peer review that makes science disprovable. In fact there's a reply to the science that suggests the authors are looking at the wrong metric (ARR) instead of the actual vaccine effectiveness (RRR).

But they also acknowledge that for any individual making the decision, they need to look at ARR.

13 posted on 05/29/2021 7:58:26 AM PDT by palmer (Democracy Dies Six Ways from Sunday)
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To: palmer
“they also acknowledge that for any individual making the decision, they need to look at ARR”

This article is only math facts.

The simple question to you - which should governments and businesses use to inform the public about the vaccine: Relative or Absolute Risk?

14 posted on 05/29/2021 8:20:39 AM PDT by ReaganGeneration2
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To: palmer
Peer reviewed science can always be proven to be wrong,

That's because SCIENCE ISNT MATH..

It never was.

And it sure isn't now.

Remember how science said ulcers were induced chiefly by stress or spicy food? It turns out, they are induced chiefly by bacteria. Whoops.

The history of science is littered with "no wait....that's wrong...THIS is right..." going through the rinse and repeat cycle endlessly.

And that's ok. Inquiry and challenge and "being a science heretic" is, in many ways, how mankind learns more and can fix more problems.

But science isn't math. Your checking account balance is the sum of deposits less sum of withdrawals. Always. Forever.

The problem arises when people try to equate science with math...usually they call it "settled science." And, to be sure, robust inquiry and disciplined application of the scientific method usually gives you clear and distinct results. Then, science is settled...until we get new data or better techniques, and then we get "wait a minute..".

For example, there was a most excellent article posted on how "settled science" wasn't so settled, wherein:

seems that Earth has been misplaced. According to a new map of the Milky Way galaxy, the Solar System's position isn't where we thought it was. Not only is it closer to the galactic centre - and the supermassive hole therein, Sagittarius A* - it's orbiting at a faster clip.

It further noted other "errors" in SCIENCE:

A good recent example of this is the red giant star Betelgeuse, which turned out to be closer to Earth than previous measurements suggested. This means that it's neither as large nor as bright as we thought. Another is the object CK Vulpeculae, a star that exploded 350 years ago. It's actually much farther away, which means that the explosion was brighter and more energetic, and requires a new explanation, since previous analyses were performed under the assumption it was relatively low energy

The other problem arises when Certain Powers work overtime to suppress assiduous inquiry. Which, is what we have today as well. It's a bad double whammy.

In the interest of full disclosure, my "science isn't math" quote came from a recent post on social sciences, that featured this brilliant give and take involving a Harvard faculty member critical of Charles Murray from the original article, that is worth reprinting - it is with regard to the "certainty of SCIENCE":

"so why should we let someone teach social science that we know to be wrong in our social science courses?"

Because it is possible that you are wrong.
Science is not mathematics. Newtonian physics was wrong. And social science is a further three rungs down in certainty from science.

Your level of certainty and arrogance about what can be said, and probably thought, smacks of religion, and not science. This is a political religion that permeates academia at the moment. And which I am fairly sure you will swear does not infect you, while the rest of us can see the symptoms quite plainly.

Only religions ban heretics from speaking because of the wrong-think they might cause. Real science loves a good heretic. In fact, honestly, the entire goal of science is to be a heretic. To have an idea that no other person ever had. Science is the pretty much the antithesis of your thought-police approach.

And most of academia used to be the antithesis of your thought police approach as well, until the religion of leftism took it over, with the direct help of people like you.

15 posted on 05/29/2021 8:23:21 AM PDT by DoodleBob (Gravity's waiting period is about 9.8 m/s^2)
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To: DoodleBob

The problem arises when people try to equate science with math...usually they call it “settled science.”


Don’t forget that statistics IS NOT MATH also..............


16 posted on 05/29/2021 8:25:46 AM PDT by PeterPrinciple (Thinking Caps are no longer being issued but there must be a warehouse full of them somewhere.)
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To: ReaganGeneration2

The issue of RRR vs ARR also arises in evaluating the efficacy of, for example, random workplace drug testing. The baseline risk matters. Testing efficacy will vary widely between, say, a population of accountants and a population of restaurant workers.

In the vaccine example, the population receiving the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines apparently has a substantially different baseline risk for contracting Covid-19 than does the population receiving the AZ and J&J vaccines.


17 posted on 05/29/2021 8:27:52 AM PDT by riverdawg (Wells Fargo is my bank and I have no complaints.)
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To: DuncanWaring

Yes, if there is a flaw in anything, there is a flaw in everything...QED /s


18 posted on 05/29/2021 8:28:43 AM PDT by EEGator
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To: DuncanWaring
Here's a book for you:


19 posted on 05/29/2021 8:30:16 AM PDT by EEGator
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To: PeterPrinciple

Statistics is an immensely valuable and unreasonably denigrated field. It tells us what is true of us as a group, and defies panic-creating anecdotal evidence about individuals, such as the graphic tales that appear on some sites daily.

Books like “How to Lie with Statistics” have somehow created an erroneous reputation, but all they show is misuse of statistics, not use of statistics.


20 posted on 05/29/2021 8:34:44 AM PDT by firebrand ( )
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