Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

America, Here Comes the Great Depression 2.0
Townhall.com ^ | April 24, 2021 | Joseph Semrevivo

Posted on 04/24/2021 5:26:26 AM PDT by Kaslin

Even as millions of Americans are vaccinated, the COVID-19 pandemic has left the U.S. economy in shambles.

Mortgage rates are climbing above 3 percent, while gas prices are skyrocketing—increasing more than 50 cents per gallon, with no end in sight. There is a global shortage of computer chips, generators, and houses. America’s housing market is nearly 4 million homes short of buyer demand, undermining the career prospects of Millennials and other generations.

At the same time, businesses of all sizes continue to be crushed by COVID-related restrictions, especially in blue states. In February, nearly one-quarter of U.S. small and medium-sized businesses were closed—up from 14 percent in October. The worst may be yet to come: 13 percent of small business owners—millions of employers—are prepared to close their doors if economic conditions do not improve later this year.

Then there’s unemployment. Based on the U6 unemployment rate, which accounts for workers who have quit looking for a job and part-time employees looking for full-time work, joblessness is well above 10 percent of the labor market. Last year, over 8 million American families experienced job loss, and millions more remain impacted.

There’s a reason why economic optimism is still low. Even with COVID-19 vaccines widely available, two-thirds of Americans remain hesitant to regularly venture out of home. We are months and months—if not years—away from economic recovery.

In fact, America is closer to a Great Depression 2.0 than a full-scale recovery. Current economic conditions do not even take into account public policy, such as President Biden’s eagerness to raise taxes or impose regulations on employers and their employees. The Biden administration’s plan to increase the corporate tax rate to 28 percent (from 21 percent) would reduce wages by more than 1 percent and kill nearly 160,000 jobs. At the same time, long-run gross domestic product (GDP) would drop by 0.96 percent—about $1,650 per U.S. household.

Meanwhile, President Biden’s $15 federal minimum wage proposal—which is backed by congressional Democrats—would reduce employment by another 1.4 million jobs. All in all, the Biden administration’s economic agenda would threaten nearly 5 million career opportunities. Can working Americans afford it, in the middle of a pandemic?

>At the height of COVID-19, unemployment levels were already comparable to Great Depression-era struggle, before recognizing the long-term consequences of government-mandated business closure. And that was under a Republican president, who opposed sweeping lockdowns and believed in pro-business policies. Under a Democratic president whose proposals cost trillions of dollars, Americans should brace themselves for more sustained suffering—and taxes to boot.

I am not trying to be a doomsayer. It is simply the reality. Americans cannot expect a return to economic normalcy in 2021—not under this president, not given these conditions. In 2006, I predicted a housing crisis in the coming years. In 2019, I shorted the stock market because I expected a downturn by early 2020. Now, I am moving into long-term equity anticipation securities (LEAPS), with my research showing a potential recession or depression within the next 18 to 24 months. Americans need to hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.

Of course, mass vaccination is one reason to be optimistic, but those in power are not necessarily ready for a return to normality. Dr. Rochelle Walensky, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, recently instructed Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer—all too eager to abuse her executive authority—to “close things down” again, no matter the economic consequences. Governor Whitmer has already urged people to voluntarily restrict certain activities, despite millions of vaccines being distributed in the state. Then you have Dr. Anthony Fauci, who supports mask-wearing and social distancing even after vaccination.

The logical endpoint of the COVID-19 pandemic is not clear. Because of big-government types like Fauci, we have a long, long way to go. The situation may get worse before it gets better.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Editorial; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: jobsandeconomy; josephsemrevivo
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-6061-8081-89 next last
To: Whenifhow; null and void; aragorn; EnigmaticAnomaly; kalee; Kale; AZ .44 MAG; Baynative; bgill; ...

p


41 posted on 04/24/2021 7:16:03 AM PDT by bitt (People who wonder if the glass is half empty or half full miss the point. The glass is refillable.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Pollard

Arizona construction is exploding, too. I can’t imagine who will voluntarily remain in the cold, dark, collectivist cities of the Northeast and Midwest unless they are getting government benefits to do so.


42 posted on 04/24/2021 7:18:54 AM PDT by Mr. Jeeves ([CTRL]-[GALT]-[DELETE])
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 40 | View Replies]

To: Lurker
Foodstuffs suitable for long term storage.
Medical supplies.
Weapon(s) and ammunition.
A means of communication that does NOT include the internet.
Trusted friends and family.
A neighborhood plan.
Barter goods.
Barter skills.

rural land
garden
Meat animals

43 posted on 04/24/2021 7:20:22 AM PDT by Pollard
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: sockmonkey
Unavailability of chips for machines in the mills that process steel due in part to sanctions, and pandemic.

Can we assume China makes the parts? And with Biden's full support they'll continue making 'essential' parts for our economy to function?

44 posted on 04/24/2021 7:20:41 AM PDT by GOPJ (We need a better class of 'elites' - the ones we have now are more like monied white trash...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: napscoordinator
"Biden hasn’t even had a budget yet. "

Yeah, but what is coming from the Communist Congress looks to be a looming disaster.

45 posted on 04/24/2021 7:24:04 AM PDT by Wonder Warthog (Not Responding to Seagull Snark)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 33 | View Replies]

To: Kaslin

“Now, I am moving into long-term equity anticipation securities (LEAPS), with my research showing a potential recession or depression within the next 18 to 24 months.”

Moving into LEAPS doesn’t make sense given his economic outlook. He must mean he is selling LEAPS instead of buying them.


46 posted on 04/24/2021 7:25:31 AM PDT by DeFault User
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: magna carta

*** my husband runs a lumberyard near downtown Houston..it is crazy the shortages and pricing increases ***

Try inking a contract for a commercial building back in mid 2020. The price of the beams was $750,000. Now as lockdowns are lifted, the price has jumped since then to near 3 million. Market predictions were steel prices would drop 1st quarter of 2021. They instead, rose, and inventory is short.

Your husband is seeing the effects of this firsthand. Many are not.


47 posted on 04/24/2021 7:26:21 AM PDT by sockmonkey (Conservative. Not a Neocon.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 39 | View Replies]

To: sockmonkey

Quotes and proposals are always time limited. When I built electric signs, my quotes were good for 30 days which is pretty standard. With lumber prices being so volatile, I would think there would be some sort of clause about the quote being contingent upon a rise in lumber costs.

When Lowes, Home Depot first got online, they didn’t put lumber prices on their websites due to the volatile prices. Eventually website software became more robust and tied into other systems. Now you can go on their websites and see that 7/16” OSB sheathing that was $9 a year ago is $39 today.

Cheaper to build a concrete block house than stick frame these days. The roof is still going to cost you 4 times the price in materials as a year ago.


48 posted on 04/24/2021 7:29:45 AM PDT by Pollard
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 20 | View Replies]

To: Kaslin

None of this is because of “covid”. It is because of power mad Democrats who could not stand the fact that we were all doing just fine without them.


49 posted on 04/24/2021 7:39:06 AM PDT by bk1000 (Banned from Breitbart)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Lurker

https://www.twdb.texas.gov/publications/brochures/conservation/doc/RainwaterHarvestingManual_3rdedition.pdf

https://library.uniteddiversity.coop/Water_and_Sanitation/Hawai_Rain_Harvesting_Guide.pdf

Can’t drill a water well on an island. Hawaii relies heavily on rainwater harvesting.

Can’t harvest rainwater in one or two PNW states because the State says they own the rain that falls on your land.

Rainwater is like distilled water in that it has no minerals so you need to take mineral supplements or eat tree nuts if all you drink is rainwater. Peanuts and nuts from bushes or small trees like hazelnuts won’t do because their tap roots don’t go deep enough to pick up minerals.

I’m surrounded by springs which was considered when we bought this hunk of woods. We used a tank for the first few years and would fill it from the spring down the hill from us. We drive over two creeks to get here and they originate from two different springs.

People come down from St Louis on the weekends to go canoeing/kayaking/tubing in the Meramec River which is super clear and very cold water because it’s fed by dozens of springs including the huge Meramec Spring.

We have no water worries here aside from how to tote it.


50 posted on 04/24/2021 7:50:34 AM PDT by Pollard
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 27 | View Replies]

To: Salman

Yes, this is planned to collapse our economy.

Do not forget that the elite wish to enact “The Great Reset” and consolidate western nations under a single socialist government.

The world will be four main groups:

Socialist nations (may merge into the communist nation group)
Communist nations
Islamist nations
Everyone else who are insignificant


51 posted on 04/24/2021 7:51:51 AM PDT by Erik Latranyi (We are being played by forces most do not understand)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: GOPJ

*** Can we assume China makes the parts? ***

China, Hong Kong (no longer autonomous), Taiwan, and South Korea. We have tried to leverage South Korea on trade tariffs (Trump Admin), and I am not sure the US will benefit from cracks in that alliance.

In plain speak, Korea is saying to the US, “you’re not the boss of me.”

When/If China regains Taiwan, they will control most of the world’s chip making.
China also has the majority of global mining agreements for Rare Earth Minerals such as used in lithium batteries.


52 posted on 04/24/2021 7:52:33 AM PDT by sockmonkey (Conservative. Not a Neocon.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 44 | View Replies]

To: Kaslin

During this so called covid economic crisis, decent houses are being bought at outlandish prices, bulldozed left and right and mcmansions are being built in their place despite the increase in lumber prices. Covid hasn’t slowed tourists so they have money and that pumped money into housekeeping, maintenance crews, food services, sporting rentals and attractions. Cottage industries exploded this past year. Online shopping also exploded and new products/services evolved. Parking lots at brick and mortar businesses were full, at least they were here.


53 posted on 04/24/2021 7:54:25 AM PDT by bgill
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Jyotishi

It’s against the law to dumpster dive. It’s also against the law for grocery stores to give away their excess inventory so they must now toss it in dumpsters and lock those dumpster in case anyone dare to pull out not so shelf pretty produce or a past sell by dated box of corn flakes.


54 posted on 04/24/2021 7:57:38 AM PDT by bgill
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: Pollard

*** Quotes and proposals are always time limited. ***

Not a quote, or proposal, A Contract.


55 posted on 04/24/2021 7:58:48 AM PDT by sockmonkey (Conservative. Not a Neocon.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 48 | View Replies]

To: USS Alaska

Our first house mortgage was at 18.5, too. What we wouldn’t have given for it to be 3. People have it good today.


56 posted on 04/24/2021 7:59:36 AM PDT by bgill
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: Pollard

“We have no water worries here aside from how to tote it.”

Same here. Can’t swing a dead cat without hitting a water source. Just have to make it potable.

L


57 posted on 04/24/2021 8:01:49 AM PDT by Lurker (Peaceful coexistence with the Left is not possible. Stop pretending that it is. , )
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 50 | View Replies]

To: billyboy15

Gas was over $4 when W was president.


58 posted on 04/24/2021 8:03:06 AM PDT by bgill
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 30 | View Replies]

To: Texas resident

“HR 1 would cement their power in place.”

I think voter fraud has already cemented their power in place.


59 posted on 04/24/2021 8:10:14 AM PDT by eyesopenandsee
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: Kaslin

And it was all worth it to rid the world of the bad orangman who is bad. The democrats cheered when Bill Mahar said they must crash the economy to get rid of Trump. They never thought they would have such great success.


60 posted on 04/24/2021 8:24:42 AM PDT by Organic Panic (Democrats. Memories as short as Joe Biden's eyes.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-6061-8081-89 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson