Posted on 04/06/2021 4:34:46 AM PDT by tlozo
Russia is once more conducting military exercises near its border with eastern Ukraine and the Ukrainian territory it has occupied since 2014. This time the “training exercises” are more threatening because they involve the equivalent of six combat brigades, accompanied by additional artillery (gun and rocket) units moving to the border as well as a buildup of combat aircraft and warships in the Crimean Peninsula, the one Ukrainian province Russia was able take in 2014 and annex. Russia then sought to take two provinces in eastern Ukraine, which comprise the economically important Donbas (Don River Basin) region. Surprisingly, for the Russians, Ukrainian forces quickly responded to the 2014 Donbas seizure effort and after months of intense combat there was a stalemate, with Russian holding half the territory it sought. The equivalent of half a dozen Ukrainian combat brigades now hold the line against a slightly smaller force of ethnic Russian residents of Donbas, plus volunteers (mercenaries) from Russia and thousands of Russian soldiers pretending to be volunteers. What has worried the Ukrainians is the Russian buildup of forces stationed near the Ukraine border. This force now consists of about seven combat brigades. This time Russia also brought warships to the Donbas Black Sea coast and in position to attack the two main port cities there. The air force buildup in Crimea and increased EW (Electronic Warfare) equipment along the border is either another training exercise or Russia seeking to take Donbas, and maybe more, by force and then declare peace. This would increase the costs of occupying Donbas and incur additional sanctions. This is already costing Russia several billion dollars a year.
Another complication is the fact that the Russian army has, since the 1990s, been smaller than the American army. That’s a first. The Russian army is also much smaller than the better equipped Chinese army, something Russia does not wish to dwell on with foreigners. Currently the Russian Army has about 20 combat brigades that are combat ready, plus a smaller number that are not. The current concentration of brigades on the Ukrainian border is the majority of such brigades the Russians possess. The Ukrainian ground forces have 170,000 active-duty troops versus 350,000 for Russia (and over 500,000 in the U.S.). Since 2014 Ukraine has reorganized and upgraded its ground forces and currently has as many combat ready brigades as Russia. Ukraine also has more reserve troops, who are better trained and dedicated than their Russian equivalents. In other words, Ukraine is not exactly helpless against a Russian invasion but most of the fighting would take place in Ukraine and civilian casualties would mostly be Ukrainian, as would the property damage. If the Russians did not sense a quick victory, they would probably propose peace and Ukraine would accept. As much as Ukrainians would like to humiliate their ancient Russian oppressors militarily, practical considerations take precedence.
Other Costs
Since 2015 the relative peace on the Donbas front has been an expensive irritant for Russia. The 2014 crises started because of a popular revolution in Ukraine against a blatant Russian effort to bribe Ukrainian politicians to block popular efforts to establish more economic and other links with the West, often at the expense of Russia. Officially the Crimean and Donbas Russians were responsible for spontaneous local uprisings. That was not the case. Russia sought to use special operations troops and subversion techniques that had worked in the past and that was the case in Crimea, but not in Donbas because the Ukrainians saw through the Russian tactics and responded with more patriotic fervor that the Russians thought possible.
Since 2015 Russia has gone through the motions of an actual invasion several times, but always backed off because of apparent Ukrainians resolve and an increase in Western hostility and threats of more sanctions. America has a new government since January 2021 and that always provides an opportunity to test the resolve of the new team. Despite that Ukraine is a situation where Russia loses no matter what they do. Ukraine and the West (including the post-1991 East European members of NATO) come out ahead it they oppose an actual Russian invasion with more military assistance and more sanctions on Russia.
The economic sanctions have cost Russia hundreds of billion dollars in losses so far. Even expatriate Russians who send money to kin still in Russia are less active. Before the 2014 sanctions expats sent nearly $20 billion a year back to Russia. Those amounts have since declined by half and continues to shrink.
The sanctions have made existing economic problems worse. For example, during 2020 Russian disposable income fell 3.5 percent. The covid19 lockdowns were largely responsible for this high (compared to other European countries) fall in disposable income. For Russia this decline is part of an eight-year trend because the Russian consumer is still suffering from the economic impact of post-2014 sanctions and permanently lower oil prices. Since 2013 disposable income has declined over ten percent. While the government issues press releases about how well Russia is dealing with the economic problems, the reality is different. Most Russians personally experience the decline each year in their incomes and standard of living. Russian GDP is down over 30 percent since 2013.
March 30, 2021: The French Rafale jet fighter is being offered as a candidate for the new fighter Ukraine is seeking as replacements for its elderly MiG-29s and Su-27s. Previous to the French announcement, the main contenders were the latest versions of the American F-16 and F-18. All three aircraft are competitive with each other and the latest Russian designs. The French are more willing to make concessions, like allowing some of the manufacturing to take place in the purchasing nation. This would be easy and very beneficial for Ukraine which still has a modern military aircraft industry. Since the 1990s the Ukrainian aviation firms have concentrated on maintenance services and upgrades and are ready to deal with Rafale manufacturing and assembly. In the last few years Rafale finally achieved the export sales it had long sought. Rafale has considerable combat experience and has been regularly updated.
March 26, 2021: In eastern Ukraine (Donbas) the Russian-backed rebels broke the July 2020 ceasefire agreement big time and fired machine-guns, automatic grenade launchers and mortars at Ukrainian troops. This was done numerous times today, killing four Ukrainian troops and wounding two. So far in 2021 incidents like this have left 16 Ukrainian soldiers dead and many more wounded. Since 2014 over 13,000 soldiers, rebels and civilians have died in the Donbas.
Videos on the early days of the Russo-Ukraine war told by the Ukraine soldiers - not for the faint of heart:
93: the Battle for Ukraine - first days of the war - YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0AtszHyy8rY
93: the Battle for Ukraine - around Donetsk Airport - YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1cMBPN3rjXU
...and over 500,000 in the U.S...
Yes, but Biden and his toady generals have them all on stand down becoming woke, weeding out white supremacists, playing pocket pool around Pelosi’s office, attending transgender and homosexual appreciation classes, learning the different gender nouns etc.
Now that the lilly livered liberal/commies are back in power in the U.S.,Russia knows they can get away with some aggressive moves. The gaul of the left and their media calling Trump a Russian agent when Braindead Byedone is a Putin stooge.
Two Ukrainian servicemen were killed by pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine over the past 24 hours, Ukraine’s military said on Tuesday, adding to already escalating tensions.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-casualties/two-ukrainian-soldiers-killed-in-eastern-ukraine-military-idUSKBN2BT0KV
Interesting but irrelevant to any real US
security interest.
This is likely not to turn out well for Ukraine. This is not like Bill Clinton sending over bombers to the tiny nation of Serbia and bombing them into submission.
Yeah, why should anyone care what Putin does? /sarc
"Putin showed a threatening video of nukes hitting Florida — and an outraged Trump snapped on him"
https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-showed-video-of-nukes-hitting-florida-outraging-trump-2018-7
Russia’s claim on Ukraine is like Hitler’s claim on German speaking parts of neighboring countries - as if they belonged to the claimant - Hitler or Russia - just because by language they are presumed to be “one people”, which merely ignores history.
What Russia and the Ukraine do to each other other is their business not ours.
Who cares?
Ukraine turned off the water supply to Crimea. Putin may turn it back on if they don’t soon.
Russia is making their move. Yes, the Sick Fucks wanting to restore the Soviet Union are in power.
I don’t have high hopes for the Biden administration, but at least they’re old fashioned.
What shows is that Russia is weak. They’re still evil, but being weak they can’t prolizyse that evil so much and that is our victory.
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