Posted on 03/27/2021 11:00:57 AM PDT by BeauBo
(President Trump's Operation Warp Speed Update)
Total Vaccine Doses Delivered: 180,644,125 (4,946,300 J&J)
Administered: 140,180,735 (2,982,453 J&J)
People Vaccinated, At Least One Dose: 91,707,729
Fully Vaccinated: 50,141,769
(Excerpt) Read more at covid.cdc.gov ...
Suckers.
“Why don’t we ever hear anything about the metrics to watch so we can declare the pandemic over?”
There have been some metrics bandied about at the State and Local level, like the number of new cases, and test positivity rates. Hospital utilization rates are no longer an issue. Neither is the availability of PPE, tests or ventilators. Recently, I have heard a Governor talk about 70% of those 65 or older being vaccinated, as a policy threshold for his re-opening.
Operation Warp Speed early on estimated that vaccinating 100 million priority people (vulnerable and essential) would control the disease (from the status of a Public Health emergency). We should get there about the end of April.
70% of the adult population fully vaccinated should crush new cases Nationwide (replication rates below one - herd immunity). That would mean about 125 million people more than today - more like the end of June.
“It seems Pfizer and Moderna are already producing the vaccines faster than we can get it into people, thus a 40M dose inventory.”
General policy is that first shots are not given, unless the second shot is on hand in inventory. So about three to four weeks worth of shots at the current rate (3 for Pfizer, 4 for Moderna) need to be in inventory. As our rate of first shots has climbed from around a million per day toward two, the inventory has grown.
So the inventory growth more reflects the growth of capacity to administer, rather than a shortfall in capacity. That capacity is planned to continue to increase, along with planned growth in vaccine deliveries, through June.
May or June should see the peak daily rates.
So far however, it seems to me that vaccine deliveries have been the constraint, rather than capacity to administer.
I sometimes wonder if the Biden Admin might drag their heels on approving AZ or Novavax, waiting for bribes, or because they compete with Moderna, where Fauci and Gates have a financial interest. Perhaps it is simple ineptitude, or bureaucratic lack of urgency.
Check out this vaccine being developed by TONIX Pharma....TNXP
Novavax should be approved within a month.
AstraZeneca screwed up their trials, both in the US and the in UK. Their data is worthless. Further, studies have shown their vaccine is worthless against the South Africa variant. Back in July/August, I'd have told you that the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine was the most promising and likely to be the first out the door. Nobody knew they had done terribly sloppy trials and had an inferior product.
“Novavax should be approved within a month.”
They had long targeted April for authorization, but I have seen recent reports that they are now looking at May.
Reportedly, they have strong manufacturing capability lined up.
“Back in July/August, I’d have told you that the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine was the most promising”
FedGov made the same assessment last year - contracted for 400 million doses, the most of any candidate.
Reportedly, their US suppliers are already sitting on about 30 million finished doses, awaiting authorization, with strong production capacity standing by.
I’d give the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine maybe 1 chance in 10 of ever seeing the light of day in the US at this point.
Further, the Biden administration is in quite a pickle. If you sit on the doses you’ve bought, nobody gets to use them. If you send them to third world countries who will actually accept them, you get accused of racist dumping of inferior products on poor nations.
“Check out this vaccine being developed by TONIX Pharma....TNXP”
Well over 100 COVID vaccines are in development worldwide. What is special about the TONIX Pharma candidates (TNX-801 and TNX-1800)?
It would seem to be a theoretically higher effectiveness, but at an unknown safety (using live horsepox virus, capable of self replicating).
“If you send them (AZ doses) to third world countries who will actually accept them, you get accused of racist dumping of inferior products on poor nations.”
The Administration has already announced that they will send 2.5 million of them “on loan” to Mexico, and 1.5 million to Canada.
Even if we lose all of the planned AZ production, Moderna is on contract for 300 million by the end of June, Pfizer for 270 million by the end of June (+30M more in July), and J&J is on contract for 100 million (single shot) by the end of June - enough for all Americans, even if Novavax and AZ never get approved.
I have read recent reports that said Novavax looked good, for effectiveness.
“Novavax should be approved within a month.”
Reuters reported on 12 March:
“Novavax Inc’s COVID-19 vaccine was 96 per cent effective in preventing cases caused by the original version of the coronavirus in a late-stage trial conducted in the United Kingdom... 86 per cent effective in protecting against the more contagious virus variant first discovered and now prevalent in the United Kingdom (Kent variant).”
Yes. And among those who have been vaccinated, that is precisely what has occurred.
With most Israelis now fully vaccinated, virus spread continues sharp drop-off
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